tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-72886362277539738862024-03-17T20:02:44.104-07:00PokerBugDocendo disco, scribendo cogito-- ship it.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger848125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7288636227753973886.post-18335822676053061652015-08-29T09:21:00.000-07:002015-08-29T09:21:01.677-07:00Don't Forget We've Moved To A New Home!<div style="text-align: center;">
Just a friendly reminder that I've moved the poker blog. Please visit the new site at:</div>
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<a href="http://www.exceptionalpoker.com/"><span style="font-size: x-large;">www.ExceptionalPoker.com</span></a></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.exceptionalpoker.com/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" border="0" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOvoJBLHS8czgAqGkp_Ld8NJc-sPWq-XlP6gDJLZNnEX9ChUixksx-LMHtudt7tG7CVO07Z0fG-597BiL_Qm8-okZe2_Hz5LaUiLk12yKgoehxLGVqg_CiKABbvrbY4XY6M6MAPFajmnwG/s640/frog-897419_1280.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">And don't forget to bookmark the new site once you click your way over there!</td></tr>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7288636227753973886.post-2112250919731867732015-08-01T15:43:00.003-07:002015-08-29T09:20:37.756-07:00Big News: We've Moved!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.exceptionalpoker.com/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="289" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1nvIVuQWU1sjUzPOytPuqhlnUxJqjV8KxpywS9qouF-0utSkZSAvYgL298iYmOIzjbcN51JXoFOIGE61sUT2A0YLiZaCGKls9KKzlPtM18yE5W2rWC0UG7xvMSl7OoFM1KMjqpr2S9BS6/s320/Big+News.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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Well, after ten long years, and nearly a thousand blog posts, it's time for a change: </div>
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<b>As of today, this PokerBug </b><b style="text-align: center;">site will go dormant. There will be <u>no more</u> new technical articles posted on this blog. It is now and forever just a static archive of past posts.</b></div>
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No, this isn't some kind of April fools prank. PokerBug is leaving for greener pastures.<br />
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Ah, but don't worry. This is actually a good thing, for both me and (hopefully) for you. Here's why: I've moved to a new domain and hosting site. I've also changed the name of the new blog and, more importantly, I've refined its core focus. Call it a fresh new start for the Bug. You can read all about the What's and Why's for the move over on the new site, which I've linked to a little further down in this post.<br />
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Before you click that link and surf on over there, however, I want to take a moment to thank all of you for your long, loyal readership here on <i>this</i> blog. The feedback, email, comments, links, and connections you've provided me over the years have been both legion and tremendously helpful. I can honestly say that I'm a much better player because of your input and feedback-- and I hope that you have found similar benefit from my writings.<br />
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Equally important are the many friendships I've made as a result of this blog; I cherish them all. In recent years, I've also managed to pick up a gaggle of students, the occasional contributor, frequent fact checkers, and, last year, even a business partner, all due directly to this blog. Thank you, one and all for your friendships, as well as the time and effort you've invested in reading and improving all my poker posts. I owe a debt of gratitude to each and every one of you. I hope you find my new poker site just as helpful and interesting as it gathers speed and gets off the ground... <br />
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So, without further ado, here's the link to the home page for Bug's new site:<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><a href="http://www.exceptionalpoker.com/" target="_blank">Exceptional Poker</a></b></span></div>
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<a href="http://www.exceptionalpoker.com/?p=35" target="_blank">And here's the link to the short backstory post there on why I made this major change in my life.</a></div>
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I hope you visit the new site as often as you have dropped in on this one. I also hope to see you someday in person on the felt, preferably with a big stack of multi-colored chips in front you. If so, please say hi, pull out a chair, and let me sit in your game-- preferably on your left!<br />
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Cheers!<br />
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All-in for the last time...<br />
-Bug<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7288636227753973886.post-52064936945685318602015-07-28T05:00:00.000-07:002015-07-28T06:21:18.243-07:00Want to Win at Poker? Learn to be Afraid!One of the best things I ever did for my Texas Hold'em game was to learn Pot Limit Omaha (PLO). The reason is that it taught me to be afraid--<i>really, really afraid</i>--of big river bets. Let me explain.<br />
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For a long period in my poker career/education, I refused to believe the other guy really had the big hand. No, that's not quite right. Rather, I refused to believe my own reads. I just <i>had</i> to see that the villain had the hand he was representing. I'd bet into the river with KK on a 9-8-7-5-2 two-tone board, but then would face a large re-shove for all my chips. There are lots of ways I could have been beaten here, and nowadays this is an easy fold, but back then I just couldn't pull the "muck trigger."<br />
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So I'd call. And then literally <u>not</u> be surprised when the villain turned over a straight, or a flush, or a set. Instead, I'd kick myself and mutter something like, "Damn it! I <i>knew</i> he had it! Why did I call!? When will I ever learn? <i>Arghghg!</i>"<br />
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For a long, long time, it seemed I was incapable of learning this particular lesson. But then one day I happened to overhear a discussion between a couple of players discussing a hand at a local tournament I occasionally play in. One guy was lamenting the fact that he had just called a big river shove because he thought the villain had been bluffing.<br />
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"The idiot turns over 5-4 for the wheel!" said the victim. "How the hell does he get to the river with that crap?"<br />
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"Doesn't matter," said the victim's friend. "He got there. And you called his bet. What did you put him on?"<br />
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"Well obviously the straight," the victim continued to whine. "But come one! Guy shoves and I can't believe it isn't a bluff. He's usually bluffing there, right? Repping the straight. Right?"<br />
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"Really?" the friend replied. "Just how often do <i>you</i> bluff the river for all your chips?"<br />
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"We're not talking about me," the victim said. <br />
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"Okay, but he bet big on the river," the friend said. "You clearly had a strong hand, and yet he still bets big. What does that say about <i>his</i> hand?"<br />
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"Dammit!"<br />
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"I rest my case," said the friend.<br />
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This conversation lodged itself in my brain like an ear worm. It kept playing itself over and over. The villain clearly had to know the hero had a strong hand, yet he shoved anyway. So what should that tell us about the villain's hands strength? Would I bluff in a situation like that when I thought my opponent had a big hand and wasn't likely to fold? Uh, no. I'm only betting with big hands, and only for value. So why would my opponent think any differently?<br />
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Like a cartoon bubble thought, a tiny 50 Watt "A-ha!" light began to flicker itself on over my head. How often do people actually bluff big on rivers? Answer: not very.<br />
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Yet I continued to call in those situations. Sigh. It was like I needed actual, physical proof that the bad guy actually had the monster hand, regardless of what his bet was telling me he had. I'm almost ashamed to admit it, but this continued to be a big leak in my game for way longer than it should have been. Who knows how many stacks I lost because I didn't believe those big river bets from the bad guys and wanted proof.<br />
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The good news is I started to learn. The bad news is that it was slow and costly. In fact, it actually took learning another type of poker to really absorb the lesson. See, I got interested in PLO around that time and quickly discovered that it was exactly as advertised: a game of the nuts. Holy crap, was PLO fun. But expensive. You don't last long playing PLO unless you embrace the idea of monsters.<br />
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See, it turns out that people very frequently have the nuts in Omaha. If there's river action on a board of 8-8-6-7-2, someone at least has trips, more likely a straight or a boat, and often enough they have quads. Yes, freaking quads. If you're going to play PLO, you better adjust your mindset PDQ, or you're gonna go broke even PDQ'er....<br />
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Ah, but I digress. All the villains turning over their nuts on me in PLO began to sink in. I learned that at the small stakes tables, people essentially never bluff in PLO on turns and rivers. As a collective whole, they're terrified of the nuts themselves, so they only get it in the middle when they think their hand is a stone-cold lock. Especially in multi-way pots. This means they have the nuts, or at least the near nuts. Said another way:<br />
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<b>If a PLO villain is a-rammin'-and-a-jammin' the river, they've got a monster.</b></div>
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That's when the 50W bulb brightened to around 75W. Hey, I thought, maybe this is the same in Hold'em games. Hmmm. Well okay, maybe not to the same near-total extent, but for practical purposes, it's probably a good, conservative way to assume when facing big, for-all-the-marbles bets on fifth street. If I get bet large into on the river, maybe I should fold all but my strongest hands? <i>Hmmm</i>...<br />
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Serendipitously around that same time period in my poker education, I also heard a podcast episode by Bart Hanson in which he extolled the virtues of bet-folding and raise-folding rivers. His comment that "most players aren't capable of bluffing big on rivers" solidified this for me. I vowed to fold, bet-fold, and raise-fold all my medium strength and worse hands in river situations for the next month or so of play and see where it took me.<br />
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And the rest is history. Profitable history, that is. And I ain't never looked back. In fact, I now have a 1000 Watt halogen bulb spotlighting all my river folds.<br />
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The bottom line is this: at the stakes most of us play ($50NL and below online, $2/$5 live), people are incapable of big bluffs on the later streets-- and this is truly a great thing. It literally makes winning poker easier. Bluffing is limited to almost exclusively the best players. And there ain't many of those guys playing at those stakes. In contrast, the rest of the player pool is dead easy to read. If they're not betting, they don't have big hands. If they are betting, they do-- and you should be afraid. Very afraid.<br />
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I rest my case.<br />
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All-in for now...<br />
-Bug<br />
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1999998092651px; line-height: 18.4799995422363px; text-align: center;">Like this post? Hate it? Have a suggestion, addition, or comment to make? Think I'm wrong about something? Please comment below and/or send me an <a href="mailto:bugeyebug@gmail.com" style="color: #888888; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">email</a>. I read everything sent my way, and I honestly look forward to hearing all feedback, good or bad. This blog gets better with comments from informed and involved readers like yourself. Don't be shy! Tell me what you think!</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7288636227753973886.post-179734952692333282015-07-13T05:00:00.000-07:002015-07-13T05:00:01.267-07:00Spotting Suckers: 10 Ways to Identify the Bad Players at Your Poker Table<div style="text-align: left;">
There's usually a sucker at a poker table. This can be one or more other players-- <i>or it could be you</i>. If it's the former, you're in luck-- it means fish for dinner. If it's the latter-- well, it's probably time to move on, lest you become the main course caught in someone else's gill net. Life's too short to be the worst player at a poker table. I assume you're smart enough to get up and move on...</div>
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...which means you will find your way to a better table, which in turn means it has fish to exploit... ah, but this assumes you know how to spot fishy behavior in the first place. Identifying bad players is the first step to exploiting them. In this post, I'm going to tell you some of the standard means by which I spot the suckers whenever I sit down to play.</div>
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In my last post, I talked about general, macroscopic methods for <a href="http://pokerbug.blogspot.com/2015/07/how-i-table-select-and-how-you-should.html" target="_blank">fish identification using lobby statistics</a>. Today I want to delve a little more deeply into specific identifiable traits that bad low-stakes players frequently exhibit. These are some of the most common leaks, mistakes, and habits that I see many of the fish (which shouldn't include you!) do at the poker tables. In no particular order, here's a list of ten very common fish-like behavior to be on the lookout for when you sit down at any new poker table:<br />
<ul>
<li><u>Playing Out of Position (OOP)</u>. After just a few orbits of a poker table, you usually can tell which players don't understand position. They're the guppies playing JTs and AX from UTG. Your job is to isolate them and take their money. 'Nuff said.</li>
<li><u>Defending Their Blinds Too Much</u>. "You're attacking <i>my</i> blinds!" you will hear them say, or: "I've already got $X <i>invested</i> in this pot. I'm not going anywhere!" News flash for the fish: they're not <i>your</i> blinds, nor have you <i>invested</i> anything. Posting blinds and antes is simply a sunk cost of doing business at the poker table. Pound these players when they're in the blinds-- they don't want to fold, even when they know they have a bad hand, and by definition you're going to have position on them.</li>
<li><u>Playing Suited Cards</u>. Ten-deuce is a terrible hand, right? "Not if they're suited!" exclaim the bad players. Yeah, right, keep telling yourself that and come sit next to me. Besides suited cards, these players also like any two Broadways, non-suited gappers, Ace-anything.. you name it, these players have a reason for playing it. Listen when they turn over some bizarre hand and tell the table that they always play it because it's their "favorite hand." Suh-weet. It's also <i>my</i> favorite hand-- when you're the one playing it, that is.</li>
<li><u>Open Limping and Cold Calling Preflop</u>. Let's repeat for the 999th time: there are two ways to win at poker: show down the best hand, or get everyone else to fold. When you're chronically passive preflop, you're actively choosing to forgo the latter method of winning. Instead, you're solely employing the "I hope I hit my hand!" approach to poker. Said another way: you suck. Look for big gaps between VPIP and PFR if you're playing online with a tracking program to spot the loose-passives. Otherwise, just watch for the folks that rarely if ever raise. Hint: they're the ones giving away their chips.</li>
<li><u>Under-Betting Postflop</u>. When I see a no-limit player betting like he's in a limit game, I know I'm at a profitable table. These guys are often older gentlemen, weaned on $2/$4 limit hold'em and/or stud, played at the local casino before the early-bird tourney. Their sole purpose in life is to dribble their money away to you, one min-bet at a time. Their tiny postflop bets accomplish nothing. They don't build their owner a pot when they do have a good hand. They don't price you out from calling when you're on a draw. And they apply essentially no pressure to get you to fold. I love these players sitting at my table.</li>
<li><u>Getting Married to TPTK</u>. These are the guys who overvalue big one-pair hands and won't fold to any amount of aggression on even the wettest of boards. Aces only come around once every 220 hands, they think, and <i>By God</i> they're going to go to the river, come hell or high water. I love stacking these players, because in addition to getting paid off the first time, they often re-buy and then go on tilt after getting their Aces or Kings "cracked." Can you say ATM? I can.</li>
<li><u>Buying-In With Weird/Small Stack Size</u>. I was sitting at a $50NL table the other day and a player sat down with a starting stack of $18.48, which screamed that this was his entire online bankroll. Within 30 minutes of spew, he busted out, typing into the chat box that "Bovada is rigged! I quit this [bleeped] game!" Yep, it's rigged-- rigged in favor of the skilled players, that is, and yes, I'm very sad to see you go. Please reconsider.</li>
<li><u>Posting Late Blinds OOP When They Sit Down</u>. These are the players who are itching to play. They literally cannot wait the two minutes it's going to take for the blinds to come around to their seat. They <i>want</i> to play, and they want to play <i>now</i>! In other words, they can't wait to get involved with far too many hands-- and give all their money to you. Loose fish alert!</li>
<li><u>Explaining Why They Lost</u>. When a player turns over a losing hand and then spends the next five minutes telling anyone who will listen why his play was the correct one, you know you've got a live one at your table. Yes, they're a semi-educated fish, and they're trying, but they're still a fish. Listen closely, and over the next hour or so this player is <i>literally</i> going to tell you their entire poker strategy, skill level, and point out their leaks, free of charge. No, let me correct that: it's better than free of charge; they're going to pay <i>you</i> for the pleasure. </li>
<li><u>Showing Their Losing Hands</u>. When a player repeatedly shows the table what cards he's lost with, he's ultimately trying to get validation that he's playing correctly. Uh, he's not playing correctly. Instead, the only thing he's validating is that he's the sucker at the table. Attack him relentlessly.</li>
</ul>
In the world of engineering, we often say you can't solve a technical problem until you've identified and isolated it. Poker is no different-- spotting the fish at a poker table is the first step to isolating and exploiting their weaknesses. Hopefully you're not doing any of the fishy things listed above (and if you are, just stop!) Just as hopefully, you're actively looking for--and attacking--the suckers at your poker tables. You can drop a line into any old pond and hope you get lucky, or you can use fish-finding sonar and go after them directly. The choice is yours.<br />
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All-in for now...<br />
-Bug<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>Like this post? Hate it? Have a suggestion, addition, or comment to make? Think I'm wrong about something? Please comment below and/or send me an <a href="mailto:bugeyebug@gmail.com" target="_blank">email</a>. I read everything sent my way, and I honestly look forward to hearing all feedback, good or bad. This blog gets better with comments from informed and involved readers like yourself. Don't be shy! Tell me what you think!</i></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com45tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7288636227753973886.post-21602689912649837702015-07-08T05:00:00.000-07:002015-07-08T05:00:03.697-07:00How I Table Select-- And How You Should, Too.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjal_nOC4hBmPhJTBRodRhIAoYdn79pwXufCz5Zw1gqbWeO94YjGvWQTeCfw9ApLpkZJbpjA-YudAgADRLWVsgUht-Dr6b9fGydLMvrgCvzquBWIR8au2lsCzsJB1p4-NmJsN5g-qLoYlcs/s1600/QA.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="134" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjal_nOC4hBmPhJTBRodRhIAoYdn79pwXufCz5Zw1gqbWeO94YjGvWQTeCfw9ApLpkZJbpjA-YudAgADRLWVsgUht-Dr6b9fGydLMvrgCvzquBWIR8au2lsCzsJB1p4-NmJsN5g-qLoYlcs/s320/QA.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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Received the following email question from reader Drew P., following <a href="http://pokerbug.blogspot.com/2015/06/the-simplest-fool-proof-tactic-you-can.html" target="_blank">my last post on when to leave a bad table</a>:
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<i>"Welcome back to the US. Nothing but good things to say about the post - only thing I wish you would have gone into more detail about is any criteria you have regarding table selection. Do you just pick a table and play until you're sure it's a bad seat? Do you use software like Tableninja in tandem with a HUD? What about the lobby table stats (% players to flop and avg. pot)? Just some thoughts I had while reading. I tend to pick the table that has the highest avg. pot. I pay almost no attention to % players to flop, and I am not using any software." -DP </i></div>
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The quick answer I sent Drew is that I used Table Ninja with good success back when I played on Full Tilt and Poker Stars, but since moving to Bovada a few years ago I don't use it anymore. Now, instead, when I'm going to sit at "regular" tables (read: non-Zoom tables) I primarily look at the % of players seeing flops, not the average pot size. The chief reason is that the percentage number tells me the average table VPIP, which is a significant indicator of the number of fish. The bigger the number, the more players there are seeing flops— which by definition means there are more crappy hands in play. You can also infer that many of these folks are not playing positionally aware poker, simply because there are so many players seeing flops and they can't all be on the button. Said another way: bad players with bad cards and bad position. Said yet another way: a fish-rich environment.<br />
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The other lobby stat that Drew mentioned (average pot size) <i>can</i> be helpful, but you have to be more cautious with interpreting what it actually means. The problem with it is that large pot sizes <i>can</i> be due to lots of players seeing flops (a good thing), or it can be due to undue aggression from one or more players seated at the table (not such a good thing). If you sit down at one of these tables you have to take the time to figure out what is the root cause of the big average sized pots, then proceed accordingly. Stay if the pot sizes are due to lots of players limping in and bloating the pot, but leave if it's due to aggressive players bullying the table with raises and re-raises.<br />
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The bottom line is Table-VPIP is the main stat I use, whether I'm sitting down by myself or whether I'm working with a student. I've had good success table selecting based on this number, and I suspect you will too.<br />
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In non-poker news, I just finished reading a really excellent book: <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0553418025/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0553418025&linkCode=as2&tag=pokblo04-20&linkId=WLFIRMG7UW3HPRSL" target="_blank">The Martian</a>, by Andy Weir. Rarely do I finish a novel as quickly as I did this one; I literally read it in two long sittings. Really fun, exciting read, excellent writing, fascinating space-travel facts throughout, pulse-pounding adventure, edge-of-your-seat how's-he-gonna-get-out-of-this-one scenes, etc. The book has been--and continues to be--a national best seller, and has now been made into a major motion picture (starring Matt Damon) that will be coming out in a few months. Bottom line is I highly recommend picking up this book if you have a few bucks, a couple of days, and want to be engrossed in an exciting story. Over the past few months, three separate friends of mine, plus my wife, have each read the book and independently recommended it to me. They were each right-- it's a really, really good book. I'd definitely consider reading it before the movie comes out, too.<br />
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All-in for now...<br />
-BugUnknownnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7288636227753973886.post-12804203148731142862015-06-30T05:00:00.000-07:002015-06-30T05:00:06.188-07:00The Simplest Fool-Proof Tactic You Can Do To Increase Your Poker Profit. Seriously.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ851sMqiQvxFGJ-PweiYP-pPswyGqdA_Gerc3ihIJdOxY4Vm7xt3MVAUq4NqyqjMY7r0pfi7ODLHce3aFIU20ZHEINNiCQ0eorQsqSQcy1arScIc-d4AVlyXY-Z_UI4Jo8fJ3l4tE_FBP/s1600/Poker+Table.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ851sMqiQvxFGJ-PweiYP-pPswyGqdA_Gerc3ihIJdOxY4Vm7xt3MVAUq4NqyqjMY7r0pfi7ODLHce3aFIU20ZHEINNiCQ0eorQsqSQcy1arScIc-d4AVlyXY-Z_UI4Jo8fJ3l4tE_FBP/s400/Poker+Table.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Okay, so you’ve spotted the sucker at the table--and it’s you. Now what? Answer: Move!<br />
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Being able to identify the good and bad players at a table is great— but what you actually do with that information is paramount. There are a ton of specific tools and tactics at your disposal to exploit those identified bad players (and also to avoid trouble situations with the identified good players), but there is one really powerful thing that anyone—even the most absolute beginner—can employ: table and seat changes.<br />
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I was working with a beginning poker student online a few months ago. I was in hands-off-and-observe mode, and this student was getting beat up pretty badly by the opposition at the $50NL table. We took a break and I asked what he thought was going wrong. “I’m getting killed by these other players," he said, "They’re reading me perfectly, and I can’t do anything about it!” So I asked if he thought he was the so-called sucker at the table. “Well, yes, obviously!” So then I asked why he was still sitting at that table. “Uh…."<br />
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There’s an old poker saw that says if you’re the 10th best player in the world, you’re still screwed if you sit down at a table with the 9 better players. Poker is a game that is played against other people, and if those people are more skilled than you, over time you’re going to lose all your money to them. So why would you even try? Yes, there are times when you just want to test yourself against the best, etc., but the majority of time you should be looking for, well, incompetent players to sit with.<br />
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This sounds kind of harsh and unsporting, but hey, poker is fundamentally a game of making fewer mistakes than your opponents, while exploiting the mistakes they make. Perhaps more important, it’s a game played for money. The other players at your table won’t hesitate to attack your weaknesses to get at your money, so why should you hesitate to exploit their weaknesses? Sit with the bad players and beat them up. And, conversely, get up and leave if you find yourself on the ropes getting hit in the mouth over and over by better players.<br />
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There are two key tactics to employ at the poker tables when you find yourself in a less than profitable situation: table and seat changes. The first (table changing) is pretty obvious; if you’re the 10th best player, just get up and leave. Ninety-nine-point-nine-nine-nine percent of the time, online and live, there are better opportunities, tables, and situations on which to spend your limited playing time. Why sit at a hard table that’s kicking your butt when you can be the butt kicker at another one? There’s absolutely no shame in picking a better battlefield on which to wage war. I do it regularly, and so should you.<br />
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The second tactic (seat changing at your table) can be very effective and highly profitable if you identify a fishy, exploitable player. If you’re seated to their right, it’s going to be much harder to abuse their mistakes and/or isolate them then if you're on their left. If a seat opens up 1-4 seats immediately to their left, you should try to move to it. Get on their left, isolate, exploit, and profit. Seriously, what are you waiting for? Someone else to take that money seat?<br />
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The same holds true against the good players at your table, but for different reasons; if your table has a very good reg sitting there raking chips, but you still want to stay at the table (e.g., because there are enough bad players to make it profitable to hang around), you should endeavor to move to a seat to the pro's left. This helps minimize the damage he or she can do to you when you enter a pot. It also allows you to employ advanced techniques like re-isolating if/when they raise a bad player.<br />
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We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: Position is power at the poker table. Just like location is to real estate, the three most important things at a poker table are position, position, and POSITION. So you should move, move, MOVE! Money flows clockwise at a poker table, and the best players set their table clocks accordingly.<br />
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So back to our student. After the "Uh...." comment when I asked why he hadn't left the table, we took a break, talked about the mistakes he was making, and then we found a better game to sit at. I’d like to report that we crushed the new table, but on our fourth hand of the new session our 5-bet all-in-preflop with Aces got called by Kings and we were promptly coolered for a 100bb buy-in. My student began to tilt, so we did the ultimate table change: we stopped playing altogether for the afternoon. The good news is the lesson was still ultimately learned, and in a follow-up session a few weeks later, we did crush it for a couple of buy-ins in an hour— after carefully selecting a soft, juicy table to exploit, that is.<br />
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The bottom line is this: When faced with bad table or seat positions: move, move, MOVE! When you’re struggling at a table, pause for a moment and reflect on your abilities versus those of the other players. Ego is your enemy here; you have to be as honest and objective as possible. If you can’t spot the sucker, it probably <i>is</i> you— so move, move, MOVE! And if you can spot the sucker, then move, move, MOVE to their left. Your bankroll will thank you.<br />
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Okay to briefly change the subject, I have a question: did you like this post? Hate it? Want to read more like it? Have ideas for improvement? I’d love to hear from you, either in the comments below, or directly via email. <a href="mailto:bugeyebug@gmail.com" target="_blank">Click here to email me</a> a quick note with suggestions— or just to say howdy. I look forward to it.<br />
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All-in for now...<br />
-BugUnknownnoreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7288636227753973886.post-8153158073344347042015-06-28T08:41:00.001-07:002015-06-28T08:41:19.726-07:00Bug's Back... some random thoughts and miscellaneous ramblings<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Three weeks in Europe is a tough thing to recover from. I went from hiking 12+ miles a day on average there to about 1 mile a day here. Went from eating like a schwein to, well... that hasn't changed. Went from cool weather (literally got caught in a blizzard in Berchtesgaden) to HOT here in Tucson. Went from slow, restful days with the wife, to holy-crap-there's-a-lot-of-stuff-to-catchup-on mode. Went from not a care in the world, to work, kids, house, vehicles, yada yada yada.<br />
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Came home... and my new 27-inch Retina iMac was waiting for me to unbox and get running. <i>Gorgeous</i> display. Two days later I'm wrapping up all the software installs and updates, reorganizing the home office, yada yada yada. I'm now 100% an Apple guy (iMac, MacBook Pro, iPad, and iPhone 6). God help me.<br />
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I'm REALLY jealous of all the WSOP players who made the trek to Vegas this year. Overall, the vacation in Germany was better-- but maybe just marginally!<br />
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Looking forward to the Main Event coverage. I'm seriously rooting for a girl to make the final table this year. Annette and Vanessa, heads-up in November, would be perfect.<br />
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One thing a vacation always does for me is refocus and reenergize. As a result, I've got a few online projects that are going to see some re-invigoration. For this blog, the plan is to get more regular with posts. Tied to this of course is with getting more focused on the ABC Poker Training lessons with Le Monsieur and getting the alpha version up and running. I've been offline and carefree for essentially a full month, and now it's time for this re-energized Bug to get busy.<br />
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Jet lag sucks.<br />
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All-in for now....<br />
-Bug<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7288636227753973886.post-11920915100823675612015-06-15T07:39:00.003-07:002015-06-15T07:39:54.691-07:00Bug's on VacationFor those of you writing me emails, wondering where I've gone-- I'm in Germany for a few weeks of much needed vacation. Thus far I've been eating too much at breakfasts, getting lost on hikes in the wald (forest), driving deeper and deeper into the Bavarian Alps, buying all manner of touristy things, eating ice cream for lunches, sleeping in late, ignoring blogs, work, email, and pretty much everything else. In other words, having a great time.<br />
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I'm silently rooting for Memphis Mojo, et al who are at or headed to the WSOP. Wish I was there-- but being here is a pretty good consolation prize.<br />
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I'll be back online and posting more regularly in a couple of weeks. Until then... auf wiedersehen!<br />
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All-in for now...<br />
-BugUnknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7288636227753973886.post-22114865869258822862015-06-01T04:00:00.000-07:002015-06-01T04:00:03.130-07:00What is Bug Reading? May 2015 Edition.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Too many books, too little time...</td></tr>
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Often I get contacted by blog readers looking for book recommendations. Most of these queries (obviously) are related to poker training materials, but not always. Sometimes people are just curious what I'm reading, even if it's non-poker fiction. Ergo, in today's inaugural end-of-month post, I present what's currently on my iPad, Kindle, bedside table, easy chair, and (gasp) in the bathroom (and no, I won't tell which book is where!):</div>
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First up is Charley Swayne's <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1550228668/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1550228668&linkCode=as2&tag=pokblo04-20&linkId=EUOT45OQNOLRBGLZ" target="_blank">Advanced Degree in Hold'em</a>. I've skimmed this book in the past and found it thought-provoking. As Le Monsieur and I work our way through the ABC poker lessons, I keep finding myself picking it up frequently to clarify a point here and there. It was especially useful when I wrote a recent monster two-part ABC lesson on a) Classifying Villain Types; and b) Exploiting Villain Types. Swayne's book is kind of weirdly written (a cross between a textbook, a scientific journal paper, and 1980's-era computer graphic output) but there's gold nuggets buried therein if you're up to the task of wading through it.</div>
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During this past couple of weeks, I've also had Ed Miller's excellent <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1477473084/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1477473084&linkCode=as2&tag=pokblo04-20&linkId=4CD67OVWV236PLTU" target="_blank">Playing the Player</a> open in various electronic and paper copy versions throughout the house. As I've stated before, I'm a big fan of Miller, and this one has some really good, solid, practical advice on dealing with common villain types you face at medium and low-stakes games. Not a cheap book, but well worth the money. If you literally can't earn back the cover price during a week of employing its advice at the micro-tables, you're doing something seriously wrong.</div>
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Semi-related to poker (actually, more related to the eventual online training site Le Monsieur and I are creating) is Michael Hyatt's <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/159555503X/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=159555503X&linkCode=as2&tag=pokblo04-20&linkId=2L3RLZLHHXFHRBWB" target="_blank">Platform: Get Noticed in a Noisy World</a>. I'm a huge fan of Hyatt; I subscribe to both his podcast and his blog, and I can honestly say that through the years his advice on work, leadership, and family has made me a better man, manager, and husband. This particular book is very "sales" specific, but it's still recommended. I've picked up a number of things in it that are directly applicable to the training material development effort we're in the midst of. Good stuff.</div>
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And whilst on the self-help and business theme, I also recently picked up Kate Erickson's <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00Q07OBBG/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=B00Q07OBBG&linkCode=as2&tag=pokblo04-20&linkId=B2POBJC4XH3453AY" target="_blank">The Fire Path</a>, which purports to lay out the sequential steps necessary to begin a successful online business. I found this book via another podcast that I'm a big fan of: John Lee Dumas' <a href="http://www.entrepreneuronfire.com/" target="_blank">Entrepreneur on Fire</a>. Kate Erickson is Dumas' wife, and while I'm only a little ways into the book, and while it <i>is </i>a little simple-minded at times, the fact that JLD had a hand in the book's creation makes it worth the price of admission all by itself. I really like JLD's business insights, and there are some good, very practical--and actionable--steps to address that his wife has captured in the book. Really simple but powerful concepts like creating a Venn diagram of your passions and proficiencies, and then layering on another Ven circle set of Profitability to find your possible calling was an "a-ha" moment for me. Lots of these kinds of interesting things in the book, and I'm only about a third of the way through it.</div>
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Totally unrelated to poker and/or business is Michael Connelly's <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1455575992/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1455575992&linkCode=as2&tag=pokblo04-20&linkId=VKHBCX43KBM34E5W" target="_blank">The Gods of Guilt</a>. Dunno if you saw <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1455516341/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1455516341&linkCode=as2&tag=pokblo04-20&linkId=HUB4NL2DYQRAEQOY" target="_blank">The Lincoln Lawyer</a> on the big screen or not, but it was based on Connelly's first installment in this particular novel series of his. Connelly's books aren't incredibly deep or meaningful, but they are always fun and fast moving. He also affords an interesting look behind the curtain of the justice system. I have most of Connelly's books, and when this one came out a year or so ago, my wife bought it for me as a gift. I'm just now getting around to reading it and am enjoying it immensely. Yes, it's a guilty pleasure, but it's also a very diverting bed-time read to relax to and turn off all the other non-fiction stuff going on in my head.</div>
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Finally, I'm working my way through an older out-of-print book by Hal Roth called <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0393032167/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0393032167&linkCode=as2&tag=pokblo04-20&linkId=QUTFJ3ZIAWY3M3NF" target="_blank">Two On A Big Ocean: The Personal Account of a Man and Woman Who Circumnavigated the Pacific--Alone In A 35-foot Sailboat</a>. This was written decades before GPS, Loran, solar systems, digital electronics, reliable radios, etc., so it's a great glimpse back into the, well, courage it took to do something audacious like sail out into the wild blue ocean and try to hit tiny islands thousands of miles away. Despite living in the desert, sea-going tales like this have always held sway with me. As a kid I read Robin Lee Graham's <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0060920475/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0060920475&linkCode=as2&tag=pokblo04-20&linkId=VJYZGILGP4DROR6A" target="_blank">Dove </a>and have been hooked ever since on this kind of story. Roth does a good job mixing the at-sea "this is how you use a sextant" stuff, with the on-land "here's the interesting stuff that happened to us ashore" tales. A fun read. I often see it available on Amazon for pennies.</div>
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I'm always looking for book recommendations, so please drop me a line if you have a good idea or a favorite read you think I'd enjoy. My tastes are very varied and extra eclectic (or, as Mr. Multi likes to opine: maybe I just have no taste to begin with). Anyway, I'm jetting off on a big 3-week sojourn to Europe starting next Saturday, and I'll be loading up the iPad with a number of tomes to read whilst gone; if you have a good suggestion, I'm all ears (or is that eyes?). Too bad I can't/won't take the unfinished bathroom book with me-- it will have to wait for my return from Germany.</div>
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All-in for now...</div>
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-Bug</div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2Tucson, AZ, USA32.2217429 -110.9264789999999731.791571400000002 -111.57192599999998 32.6519144 -110.28103199999997tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7288636227753973886.post-1886313560501534472015-05-26T05:31:00.004-07:002015-08-04T13:12:30.236-07:00The 4 basic villain types you face at small stakes games-- and how to play against them.Today's post is a 15-minute audio on classifying--and exploiting--villain types at the low-stakes tables:<br />
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Some key takeaways and additional points not raised in the podcast:</div>
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<li>Most of the opponents you face at low-stakes games will have big leaks and weaknesses.</li>
<li>Finding these weaknesses—and learning to hand read—begins with stereotyping and classifying the villains.</li>
<li>The most basic and important classification looks at two related aspects of the villain's preflop hand selection: a) how loose (or tight) the player is; and b) aggressive (or passive) the player is with their two starting cards. These are represented by "VPIP" and "PFR" statistics, respectively.</li>
<li>We can plot these two factors on a two-dimensional “PATL” grid.</li>
<li>There are four basic, broad categories of villains you'll play against at the low-stakes poker tables. They can be categorized by which quadrant of the PATL grid they land in.</li>
<li>The quadrant of the PATL chart that the villain resides in will give a big clue as to the types of mistakes (if any) they make.</li>
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<li><b>Tight-Aggressive Villains</b>. Good players can be found in the upper left quadrant of the chart. These players are known as tight-aggressive, TAgs, regs, and/or pros. </li>
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<li>TAgs play a tight, selective preflop style, playing only a fraction of the hands dealt to them, but doing so very aggressively. This is the recommended preflop style of play for beating most low-stakes games.</li>
<li>You can spot a TAg by the fact that on average they're playing about one in five or six hands dealt to them, and doing so with serious aggression. They're also playing a very positionally-aware style, being much tighter in EP, and looser in LP. They're often taking control of hands, and will raise draws on the flop as semi-bluffs, and will bet-fold rivers.</li>
<li>TAgs are the trickiest of players to counter. They don't make many mistakes, but it's still generally best to play straightforward against them. In general, your profit is going to come from other players--not these guys; you'll mostly just trade chips back and forth with other TAgs at the table if you're a good player, too.</li>
<li>If you can, sit to the left of these players to help minimize the damage.</li>
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<li><b>Tight-Passive Villains</b>. Players in the lower left corner of the chart are know as tight-passive, weak-tight, nittish, timids, or rock-like. </li>
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<li>These players play few hands, but unlike TAgs, they mostly just call when involved in a hand, with very little raising in general, even post-flop.They often make a small profit or are marginally break-even, primarily because they stay out of trouble and make few big pot mistakes. They generally value position, but they don't open up as much in LP as a TAg.</li>
<li>These players generally fold too much preflop, and give up on pots too easily after the flop is dealt unless this hit it very hard (TPTK or better). If they hit moderatly hard, they'll sometimes call a single bet, sometimes with strong draws, but then will give up on the turn if they don't improve.</li>
<li>These players can be bluffed relatively easily, both preflop (steals) and postflop with c-bets on flop and turn. On the other hand, it's hard to get a lot of value from these players, as their tendency is to fold if bet into.</li>
<li>If one of these players bets and/or raises, it's probable they have a very strong hand. Proceed cautiously and only with strong made hands that can withstand a showdown. These players rarely if ever bluff.</li>
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<li><b>Loose-Passive Villains</b>. Players in the lower right corner of the chart are known as loose-passive, LAps, calling stations, no fold'em hold'em players, sheriffs, fish, and/or ATMs. Almost all LAps at low-stakes tables are long-term losers.</li>
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<li>These LAps play a lot of hands and call a lot-- far too much, both preflop and postflop. They're poor players in general and make a lot of "let's see a flop and make a hand" mistakes. They don't usually understand position, or if they do, they don't employ it very strongly in their preflop starting hand strategy. Often any two suited cards are good enough for them to play. A common saying you'll hear from them is, "you can't win if you don't play."</li>
<li>You should not usually try to bluff these players; they won’t fold even their weakest hands to aggression.</li>
<li>Against these players, you should bet your medium and strong value hands on all three streets to build a pot and get paid off. Value is the name of the game to beating these guys, and in fact the majority of your profit at small-stakes tables will come from LAps.</li>
<li>You will occasionally get bad-beaten by these players because they stick around with crazy stuff that a normal player would have smartly folded two streets early. When you take a bad beat by one of these guys, remind yourself that results don't matter; decisions do; and, if you don't want to play against bad players, who do you want to play against? Over time, you will make a lot more value money from these guys than you lose to them on bad beats.</li>
</ul>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b>Loose-Aggressive Villains</b>. Players in the upper right of the PATL grid are said to be loose-aggressive, or LAgs. Some professional and semi-professional players employ this style with good results (but also with high variance); this Bug is one of them. Extreme players in this quadrant are known as maniacs. Aside from the pro's, most LAgs at small stakes are losing players.</li>
<ul>
<li>These players play a lot of hands and raise most of them. Because of this, they often put too much money into the pot with their weak holdings and then have trouble getting off the hand, even when they know they're beat. They <strike>like</strike> love to bluff, often with multiple barrels on multiple streets.</li>
<li>Open up your game a bit against bad LAgs, and try to do so in position. By definition, they're playing too many hands, which means weak holdings. If possible, seat change to be on their left. They usually undervalue position in their own play, and isolating them with your big hands can be very profitable.</li>
<li>Don’t over-committ against these players with your weakest holdings. If you do have a medium or strong hand, however, you should be willing to play a big pot with them, often for stacks. Variance is something you'll have to get used to when playing against a LAg.</li>
<li>Be wary of the professional LAg, as they will be hand reading well and will not pay you off.</li>
</ul>
</ul>
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Hope this helps you focus your game. Learning to classify players is the first step in the hand-reading process, and if you make even small adjustments based on the tendencies and style of play of the villains at your table, you'll be way ahead of most of the other players competing for pots.<br />
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All-in for now...</div>
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-Bug</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4Arizona, USA32.138408696772508 -110.9179687530.427405696772507 -113.49975575 33.849411696772506 -108.33618175tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7288636227753973886.post-89564662702509494122015-05-22T11:00:00.002-07:002015-05-22T11:00:23.101-07:00Bug's Poker Tip #47<div style="text-align: center;">
<u>Bankroll Management: You Need A Lot</u></div>
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Let's start by pointing out that you're probably not going to like what I have to say on this subject: You need a lot more money in your bankroll than you probably think you do. You need more than most successful professional players say you need. You need more than your wife says, your poker mates advise, and the majority of the advice books, forums, and experts counsel. </div>
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The truth is you need a big-ass bankroll if you're going to play no-limit hold'em.</div>
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A short <a href="http://pokerbug.blogspot.com/p/bugs-tips.html" target="_blank">Bug Tip</a> like this is not the place to go into a lot of math and statistics on the subject, but suffice it to say that big downswings--even if you're playing perfectly--happen on a regular basis to everyone, even the pros. It's not uncommon for the best no-limit players to suffer 20, 30, even 40 buy-in drops in their bankroll. Variance happens, folks, even to expert players.</div>
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And guess what? You're not an expert at no-limit. You are not one of the best no-limit players in the world. You don't play perfectly 100% of the time. Your downswings can be bigger than 20-40 buy-ins. I've know very good players that have lost 50 buy-ins in long, soul-crushing stretches. I know this because I've helped them analyze their hand histories and reviewed their results after the damage is done. And it's shocking how much damage the variance monster can cause.</div>
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So let's cut to the chase. How much money should a reasonably competent low-stakes player keep in his bankroll?</div>
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Remember, I said you're not going to like the answer. Of course it all depends on a number of factors, including the mental fortitude of the player, the skill of his typical opponents, and a host of other things, but if pressed, my own personal recommendation for bankroll size of a beginning or intermediate player is that you need 100 buy-ins for the stakes you play.</div>
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<b><u>Yes, 100 buy-ins!</u></b></div>
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This means if you play $0.05/$0.10 no-limit, you should have a cool $1,000 in your 'roll. Like to play the $0.50/$1.00 tables? Better have $10,000 squirreled away. And so on.</div>
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Of course you don't have to have all this money online at one specific instance in time, nor does it mean you're supposed to bring that much to Vegas with you if you want to sit and play for a weekend. But it does mean you need at least this much set aside in your walled-off poker-only fund, strictly for poker use and nothing else. The reason is to keep you from ever going broke. And, more importantly, keep you sane along the way.</div>
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Poker is chock-full of variance. And your bankroll size is the chief weapon to fight its ill effects. Make sure you have enough, or the variance monster will take your ability to play away.</div>
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(Oh, and don't even get me started on PLO variance...argh.)</div>
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All-in for now...</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
-Bug</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7288636227753973886.post-76910761380614381382015-05-14T09:26:00.002-07:002015-05-14T09:26:41.044-07:00Thought of the Day: Tilt Response<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpP1fJr1NUz5MpOvNOUMmn658XHLv7otlWM1IGIJstlzGPFvJfU5cz-gQJ6O2HyvrRIZ10EyvQSbctdeVcp3o25HSB94vnwVaLPKrfm54IDKkO9CZqEL672ZCXtxUVF6aexjJJkiPa-5ex/s1600/ABC_Poker_4_-_Emotional_Control_pptx.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpP1fJr1NUz5MpOvNOUMmn658XHLv7otlWM1IGIJstlzGPFvJfU5cz-gQJ6O2HyvrRIZ10EyvQSbctdeVcp3o25HSB94vnwVaLPKrfm54IDKkO9CZqEL672ZCXtxUVF6aexjJJkiPa-5ex/s400/ABC_Poker_4_-_Emotional_Control_pptx.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
On the commute in this morning, I heard a thought-provoking statement on a non-poker podcast:<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<i><b>Maturity is the ability to pause between The Stimulus and The Response.</b></i></div>
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Wow. This statement sums up in 12 little words the fundamental secret to fighting tilt at the poker tables. In fact, this is my own method of countering bad beats, coolers, lost-races, and all the other "injustices" I feel when I get stacked by a clueless fish.<br />
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I pause.<br />
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I breathe.<br />
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I force myself to think through the preceding actions in the hand.<br />
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Did I do everything correctly? If the answer is Yes, then this is just a part of poker that keeps the fishes coming back. This is actually a good thing. I welcome bad beats, because by definition it means I played the hand correctly and the bad guy didn't. It means that in the long run, I'll make a lot more money in this same situation than I just lost in this hand.<br />
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If the answer is No, however, and I didn't do everything correctly, then I force myself to learn from the bad beat. For instance, did I let the villain see a free card that allowed him to make his hand? Okay, next time I'm not going to play stupid-fancy, and instead I'll charge him to see the next community board card. If he's going to chase, I'm going to give him the wrong odds to do so. If I do <i>that</i> over and over instead, I'll make up for this lost pot of money in this hand.<br />
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Poker is a high variance endeavor. It's going to have swings. Some of those swings are going to result in painful stimuli. So what? You have to remember that you signed up for this rollercoaster when you sat down to play. How you respond to the dips is a measure of your growth as a player.<br />
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Said simply, how you respond to the negative stimulus of variance is a measure of your poker maturity.<br />
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All-in for now...<br />
-Bug<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7288636227753973886.post-86758616271022627092015-05-12T03:27:00.001-07:002015-05-12T04:38:47.613-07:00A Boring--But Powerful--Poker Skill: FoldingMost experienced intermediate cash game players understand the importance of playing position. They get the preflop concept of tight-is-right. They employ aggression in their game because they know that pressuring the other guy to fold means they can win with effectively any two cards. They continuation bet with the right frequency. They’ve mastered bankroll management, they don’t tilt, and they know how to hand read like fortune tellers.<br />
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But there is a common leak among these same intermediate players that I see over and over—and this leak costs them money. A lot of money.
These otherwise solid players don’t fold enough.
I’m not talking preflop (remember, I said they get the whole tight-is-right concept?). No, I’m talking post flop, in situations when the bad guy is firing into them and, well, they don’t believe the bad guy. So these otherwise good players call down, in a sense just kind of just <i>hoping</i> to win. They say things like they're going to "look up" the villain. These folks play the role of sheriff, and it costs them money that it doesn’t have to. Said simply, there’s better money to be made without “hoping” you have the best hand.<br />
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Folding is one the chief ingredients to the the secret sauce of beating low and medium stakes games. It’s how you survive—and thrive--against the opposition. It’s what the pros do.<br />
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And it’s what I do. My name is Bug, and I fold a lot.<br />
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If you are unsure if you have the best hand on the flop or beyond, and the bad guy is betting into you, you probably should fold.<br />
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If you think the decision is close, you probably should fold.<br />
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If the villain is firing multiple barrels and you don’t have a very strong hand that should otherwise go to showdown, you should probably fold.<br />
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In low stakes games, you shouldn’t have to risk your stack fighting for marginal pots and battling for thin edges. And you should almost never "look up" the other guy just because you want to keep them honest or see what they have. At these small stakes tables, there is easier, lower-risk money to be had.
This is true whether your opponent is a weak-tight nit, a loose-passive fish, or somewhere in between. When these players bet, they mean it. They rarely bluff. Their post flop bets are real. These may be bad players, but as the old saying goes: even the blind squirrel occasionally finds the nuts. Just accept it and move on.<br />
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You should also strongly consider folding when a tricky professional or “reg” is firing into you. Yes, it’s less likely they have the goods than when a passive bad player is betting, but you still have to ask yourself if the risk-to-reward ratio of calling down the reg is positive. Sometimes when you have position on these types you can float them, but usually only one street. If they fire a second bullet, ask yourself if you want to invest any more money into this hand, <i>hoping</i> you’re best, or hoping that they’ll give up on a later street. If the answer is no, then just fold and move on. It's really this simple.<br />
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Remember, folding is always zero EV. Folding costs you <i>absolutely</i> nothing. Any money in the pot--<i>even if you put it there</i>--is not yours; it’s a sunk cost and now belongs to the pot, not you.<br />
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Your main source of profit in the small stakes games comes from making hands against loose-passive players and stealing from the tight ones. At these small stakes games you shouldn’t be making many—if any—fancy plays or big “hero calls.” You should not be looking up players.<br />
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As you move up in stakes you can and should start employing more advanced tactics like 3betting light and bluffing more, but in the small stakes tables just <i>forgetaboutit</i>.<br />
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The downside of course is that playing this way may feel boring. It may seem unsexy. It might not cause adrenaline to course through you blood stream—but it’s a highly effective, highly profitable way to play poker.<br />
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Fold. Your bankroll will thank you.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7288636227753973886.post-43812641670232323282015-05-09T15:35:00.000-07:002015-05-10T06:31:12.724-07:00Continuation Bet. A Lot.Being the nerd I am, I have actively collected a lot of poker data over the years. A whole lot. In the past ten years alone, I’ve played well over a million hands combined of online Texas Hold’em, Stud, and Omaha. The majority of these hands and/or sessions were recorded either via automatic tracking software or manually in a long series of spreadsheets. I have also added other players’ hands to this database, actually going as far as purchasing blocks of data from various online re-sellers. All-in-all, I have data on over three million real poker hands that I have used to help evaluate and test theories, and prove (or disprove) specific strategies and tactics.<br />
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I’ve used this data for everything from helping put together preflop starting hand recommendations, to quantifying the power of position, to determining optimal bet sizing in different situations, and even to help me figure out the best times of the day and week to play that are the most profitable for my own specific LAggy style. As the old saw goes, you can’t improve what you can’t measure, and all this measured data I’ve collected has served to greatly improve my own game.<br />
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Lately I used these data to <a href="http://pokerbug.blogspot.com/2015/05/continuation-betting-for-dummies.html" target="_blank"><b>analyze flop continuation betting scenarios</b></a>. This analysis resulted in an honest-to-goodness formula a beginning player can use to determine whether they should c-bet in any specific situation or not. The method itself is quite simple: you calculate your fold equity based on a point count system, then do the same for your pot equity, and finally just multiply the two numbers together and look at the result. Depending upon the number you get, you then either fold, c-bet, or slow-play your hand…<br />
<br />
….ah, but all of this can really be boiled down to a much, <i>much </i>simpler let’s-cut-to-the-chase recommendation:<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>When in doubt, you should probably continuation bet</b></div>
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The simple fact is this: in small stakes games, if you were the preflop aggressor, you should be firing a continuation bet on the flop at a relatively high frequency. Depending on the number and type of villains in the hand and the texture of the board, this number can range from 60% to higher. Heck, against weak-tight nits on super-dry boards, you should probably be firing a flop continuation bet nearly 100% of the time.<br />
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This empirically-based conclusion of mine can be proved analytically by doing some simple algebra with a basic expected value equation. Setting EV equal to zero and ignoring any showdown equity you might have, one can easily see that Fold Equity = Bet Size / [Pot Size + Bet Size]. Here’s that relationship plotted out in X-Y fashion:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8X4IIYSQLArjSFO0iSzuqrcnMhGVCcIhBsYgdm57QtWy3n1YqErUcNACjKCzUYs887YezzjCLwmH-rCjs3PrlljvviXk9nEKWoXZB8QRHDsnn9CXA9BZG9TdLMoIJa2o_rgmyZWrH_ou1/s1600/2015-05-09_14-48-56.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8X4IIYSQLArjSFO0iSzuqrcnMhGVCcIhBsYgdm57QtWy3n1YqErUcNACjKCzUYs887YezzjCLwmH-rCjs3PrlljvviXk9nEKWoXZB8QRHDsnn9CXA9BZG9TdLMoIJa2o_rgmyZWrH_ou1/s400/2015-05-09_14-48-56.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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What this chart demonstrates is that you only need a villain to fold 33% of the time if you fire a half-pot-sized continuation bet on the flop. Given the fact that the villain is going to miss the flop around 35% of the time, this means a c-bet generally has a high percentage chance of working.<br />
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Now, the bad news is that <i>actual </i>(i.e, not <i>required</i>) fold equity will vary as a function of Hero's c-bet size, which is something we’ve ignored in this simple analysis. In other words, a small bet size may only <i>need </i>a small villain fold frequency to be break-even, but villains will fold significantly less frequently if they’re being offered good pot odds, which a small bet causes. At first blush, this argues in favor of c-betting less frequently on the flop, but the other thing we’ve left out of the analysis is that we have ignored showdown equity for all those cases when the c-bet doesn’t result in a fold. These two factors (more or less) cancel each other out, which means that roughly speaking, you should in fact be continuation betting a relatively high percentage of the time on the flop.<br />
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How high, you ask? My three million hands of empirical data suggests a continuation bet frequency around 75%. Said another way, you should be flop continuation betting as a bluff an average of three out of four times in small stakes games. Further, I suggest that your c-bet size be around 60-65% of the pot; this seems to be the optimal risk:reward sweet spot that applies enough pressure to the villain, while risking the least amount of the hero's stack if the villain calls.<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<u>Bottom line: Three million hands of data don't lie: continuation bet most of the time in small stakes games, and make your bet sizing to be around 60-65% of the pot.</u></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7288636227753973886.post-20198220901228476572015-05-05T07:03:00.001-07:002015-05-05T08:05:26.480-07:00We Need a Little Help!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />
Le Monsieur and I are making good progress with the training material. In fact, we're closing in on completing the last few of the so-called "level-1" lessons, and now we're exploring how best to implement this powerful thing we've created. And part of that implementation is the selection of a product/domain name...<br />
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...which brings us to you, dear trusted reader. We're soliciting ideas and feedback on potential names for this beast. We not only <i>want </i>your input, we <i>need </i>it. So, with that in mind:<br />
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<b><u><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="mailto:bugeyebug@gmail.com" target="_blank">What do you suggest as a name for this poker training product and domain?</a></span></u></b></div>
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The quick background/story on what we've been creating is this: a series of sequential, step-by-step lessons geared toward a new player who already understand the basic mechanics of playing a poker hand, including hand rankings, etc. The lessons will take him from raw beginner to a solid winning low-stakes player. It's based around the mastery of Level-1 thinking, and focuses on the core concepts and skills needed to beat micro-to-low stakes NLHE. These of course include the fundamentals of understanding basic villain types and tendencies, knowing simple poker math/odds/outs/probabilities, using position, exercising solid preflop hand selection (with recommended starting hand charts), knowing how to steal and defend your blinds, sizing bets, simplified post-flop continuation betting, and so on.<br />
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Each lesson has multiple parts, but you can think of it as being in two primary sections: a) the lesson itself, which explains and teaches the idea; and 2) a set of quiz questions the student has to take (and pass!) before moving on to the next lesson in the series. Each lesson builds upon the previous one, and the student is required to demonstrate understanding of the previous material before moving to the next lesson in the progression. By the time he/she is finished with the L1 lessons, they should have enough knowledge to readily beat a $.10/$.25 online game or a live $1/2 game at their local casino.<br />
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After we complete the L1 lessons, the next step for us is to, well, step up a level and create similar L2 training material, introducing and teaching the whole process of REDi to the L1 graduates, etc.<br />
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So what do you think? And, just as importantly, what are your suggestions for domain and product names? Feedback, comments, and ideas are absolutely welcome.<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><u><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="mailto:bugeyebug@gmail.com" target="_blank">Click here to email us with your input!</a></span></u></b></div>
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Looking forward to hearing your thoughts and ideas!<br />
<br />
All-in for now...<br />
-BugUnknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7288636227753973886.post-43396299513611083832015-05-03T13:29:00.002-07:002015-05-03T13:46:59.857-07:00Continuation Betting for DummiesI haven't been posting here much due to crazy work travel, work problems, and, well, work, work, and more work. That said, in the limited spare time I have every day I have been making slow and steady progress on the ABC lessons with Le Monsieur. The latest one that I just uploaded to our shared Evernote lesson notebook was a big 3000-word treatise on when to continuation bet on the flop. (There are six additional lessons that accompany this one, btw...)<br />
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I thought this when-to-cbet lesson would be a snap to write, but in the end it took me nearly 3 weeks of research, errant thought, false-starts, and general noodling around to come up with a step-by-step instructional that a newbie can follow to determine whether they should c-bet on the flop or not. It also gives guidance on how much they should bet in each case.<br />
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Writing this lesson was a really fun--and sometimes aggravating--experience, but I think the end result is really useful. I also think it's kind of ground-breaking in a way; in fact, I've never seen this type of approach to c-betting addressed before anywhere in poker books, blogs, or in training videos. This is basically cutting edge stuff, folks.<br />
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Anyway, you'll have to wait for the app to come out for the full step-by-step version, but here's the TL;DR Cliffs Notes version of cbetting:<br />
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<ol>
<li><b>First </b>determine your fold equity (FE) in the hand. You have to estimate what the likelihood is that the villains who saw the flop with you are going to fold if you bet. I've touched on this before in this blog, like in <a href="http://pokerbug.blogspot.com/2012/08/bugs-poker-tip-7.html" target="_blank">Bug's Poker Tip #7</a> and <a href="http://pokerbug.blogspot.com/2012/11/bugs-poker-tip-17.html" target="_blank">Tip #17</a> before, but not nearly to the extent I did this time around, nor did I quantify each effect, nor have I put in a sequential, step-by-step process. Long story short, the significant level-1 factors that influence your FE include: number of villains, board texture, type of villains, stack sizes, preflop action, position of the players, and the hero's image. I've spent hours wading through poker tracker data to actually determine the approximate weightings and importance of each of these, and I now have a solid and easy means to accurate estimate FE in a poker hand. In a nutshell, my method uses points that you assign for, say, the number of calling stations left in the hand, or who has position on whom preflop, etc. You total the points and end up with a FE estimate. It's pretty cool stuff if I do say so myself-- oh, and dead simple to do.</li>
<li><b>Second</b>, determine if you want the villain to fold or not, which of course hinges around your own hand strength, or pot equity (PE). This seems simple on the surface, but again, when you're teaching level-1 poker to a newbie, and you're trying not to inundate them with hand reading, poker stoves, leveling, etc., it's surprisingly challenging to actually determine whether your hand is strong enough or not to <i>want </i>a call. Again, I spent a lot of time sorting and analyzing real poker hand data, and now have come up with another simple point count system that does a reasonably accurate (and conservative) job of determining your pot equity in a hand independent of villain's range. Related to this is a method of determining if your hand is vulnerable or not to getting out drawn on the turn and river. And yes, once again, this is not as easy as it sounds to do, but I think we have a very innovative and simple method figured out.</li>
</ol>
<div>
Okay, so after you have the FE and PE's of a situation estimated, the <b>third </b>and final step is to plot them against each other on a 2-d chart. Here's a simplified version of the graph, and if you've done a reasonably good job estimating your fold and pot equities, this type of chart actually can go a long way toward helping you a) decide to if you should c-bet; and b) determine how much you should bet:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsu0ysl5k8JjfK0bB7ysXyOjhu5kE3swkqH-y4Ffd9T12RyoC3HMkBzL9JUBhyphenhyphenOlxgX4Srp8je2aiFlm5_Tvnmu-zzRg5ur9H4GRWh9PCvmU05CL3546WqkGJWgclG-FP5OacsQg5yoEtq/s1600/C-bet+Graphic.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsu0ysl5k8JjfK0bB7ysXyOjhu5kE3swkqH-y4Ffd9T12RyoC3HMkBzL9JUBhyphenhyphenOlxgX4Srp8je2aiFlm5_Tvnmu-zzRg5ur9H4GRWh9PCvmU05CL3546WqkGJWgclG-FP5OacsQg5yoEtq/s640/C-bet+Graphic.png" height="245" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Researching and writing these lessons continues to be extremely fun and educational. I also think it's going to result in a really powerful training aid for beginning and intermediate poker players. And, oh yeah, it also helps offset all the work, work, and work that my day job insists on dumping on me lately. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
All-in for now...</div>
<div>
-Bug</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7288636227753973886.post-73136421990621619442015-04-19T11:56:00.003-07:002015-04-19T12:04:40.564-07:00Talk, Talk, Talking on TAg, TAg, TAgging<div style="text-align: left;">
Trying something a little different for today's post, which is a six-minute audio file on playing a tight, selective preflop strategy:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="140" mozallowfullscreen="true" src="https://archive.org/embed/01TightIsRight" webkitallowfullscreen="true" width="500"></iframe></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
I<span style="text-align: left;"> welcome any constructive criticism on content and delivery. I know the quality isn't great (I'm still figuring out Audacity's recording software) and I need to practice my on-air speaking voice a bit-- but other than that, I would love to hear back from you folks on: a) what I can do to make this better/more useful; and b) would you want to hear more of these in the future, or is this just a distraction and/or contrivance.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="text-align: left;">Feedback is welcome...</span></div>
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<span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="text-align: left;">All-in for now...</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="text-align: left;">-Bug</span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7288636227753973886.post-71507540934220681542015-04-12T11:12:00.002-07:002015-04-12T11:22:01.679-07:00Revisiting the 3 Edges of Poker Mastery<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"><u>There are three equally important keys to mastering
poker</u></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center; text-indent: 0.5in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"><i>[Note: Yes, I've written on this topic before before, but a series of email exchanges with a struggling poker player who contacted me through the blog has brought this whole idea back to the front burner. Even if you remember my past posts on this subject, it still bears a second look...]</i> </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;">There
are three major categories of skills, or “edges,” you have to master to win at
poker. Of course each of these are comprised of dozens or more sub-lessons,
specific skills, and individual tactics to learn, but when viewed from 30,000
feet, poker mastery really does boil down to three, <i>equally important</i> categories of edge. Get these three things down,
and you will crush the game. Don’t, and you won’t.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;">Let’s
look briefly at each of the three edge categories:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
</div>
<ol>
<li><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 0.5in;"><u>Off-Table Work</u>. First
is the idea that learning poker requires significant </span><b style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 0.5in;">off-table preparation</b><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 0.5in;"> and work. It takes discipline. It takes
effort—</span><i style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 0.5in;">active</i><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 0.5in;"> effort. You cannot just
sit back and passively watch a weekly World Poker Tour (WPT) television
broadcast on Sunday night and then expect to win at the casino on Monday. It
doesn’t work that way. Winning takes commitment and effort. If you truly want
to get better—and make long-term, consistent money at the game—then you have to
treat poker like you would if you were trying to get better at any other
skill-based endeavor, like golf or chess. In other words: study, preparation,
practice, and post-game review. No, let me re-phrase that: </span><i style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 0.5in;">active</i><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 0.5in;"> study, </span><i style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 0.5in;">committed</i><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 0.5in;">
preparation, </span><i style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 0.5in;">disciplined</i><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 0.5in;"> practice, and
</span><i style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 0.5in;">focused</i><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 0.5in;"> post-game review. You won’t
get better at golf by cracking a beer and watching the Masters on television;
you have to go to the range, work on our swing, hit thousands of balls on the
putting green, practice bunker shots, and so on. Simply watching Bubba Watson
hit magically bending shots over and around trees isn’t going to somehow turn
you into the next Bubba. Same for poker. Watching Phil Laak, Phil Hellmuth,
Phil Gordon, or Phil Galfond on TV isn’t going to turn you into the next Phil.
The majority of winning poker professionals queried say they had to put in
roughly an hour of off-table work for every hour they actually played the game
when they were first starting out. Many of these same pros continue that
one-to-one ratio even today. They understand that their competition is doing
the same, so to keep up with—and surpass—those other players requires the pros
to put in the off-table work, including note and record taking, pre-game
warm-ups, post-game reviews, leak-finding and plugging, adhering to proper
bankroll management, targeted game selection, mental and physical preparation,
and discussing and dissecting poker strategy with like-minded serious students
of the game. To get better, you have to actually work at it away from the
tables. ‘Nuff said.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 0.5in;"><u>On-Table Technical Skills</u>. The
second major edge category is the ability to recognize the skill level of your
opponents, and then systematically mastering all the specific tactics,
techniques, and strategies of poker necessary to best those opponents at that
level. In a sense, these are the </span><b style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 0.5in;">on-table
technical skills</b><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 0.5in;"> of the game, and they’re highly dependent on the type of
opponents you play against. If for example you play small stakes live poker
against relatively talentless amateurs, you still have to actually learn and employ
the tactics necessary to beat those folks. If you don’t, you’re by definition
just as talentless. This means understanding—and using—position. It means
selecting strong starting hands— and folding all the rest. It means
understanding—and utilizing—basic pot- and implied-odds, both in your calling
and betting. It means focusing on extracting value at showdowns, not bluffing
bad players. It means reading board texture— and then c-betting accordingly.
And so on. As you progress upward in stakes and face tougher opponents, there
will be a new set of skills you have to master to best those tougher opponents.
Skills like hand and line reading, estimating equities and commitment, and
deciding and implementing optimal EV lines becomes your secret weapons. And so
on again. None of these individual skills and tactics are really rocket science
to learn, and the skills themselves are readily identifiable, but you have to
identify and master them, or you won’t ever master the game. ‘Nuff said on this
one, too.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 0.5in;"><u>Emotional Control</u>. Finally,
the third category of skills you have to master is related to controlling your
emotions. All the off-table prep and on-table skill won’t mean a damn if you
piss your profits away by going on tilt when you suffer a bad beat. Recognizing—and eliminating—tilt from
your game, as well as remaining patient, focused, and Zen-like at the table,
playing on those fine lines between ego-less and confident poker, playing with
heart and without fear… well, these are the </span><b style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 0.5in;">emotional control</b><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 0.5in;"> skills that separate the winning wheat from the
chagrined chaff. I can promise you that the Phils of the world have their
emotions under control better than the average player does. Bad beats don’t
affect a professional player the way it does the rest of us, and this is
because the pro has taken the time to understand his or her own psychological
make-up, and then employ targeted strategies to keep their specific tilt monsters at bay.</span></li>
</ol>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkK7vJvGq4STO8E2bxnYLKMdNIX0S9BfUgMw2Onwr4DqA3jbbfqpweAJtj7fFry3nzpadilYPdSdLWcR-KGhsnPibj4B6rtXz5KPMeLc90yynXu3wMXd2E-gyFYV6HLTMyuER87w5BbiZK/s1600/Venn+Diagram+of+3+Poker+Edges.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkK7vJvGq4STO8E2bxnYLKMdNIX0S9BfUgMw2Onwr4DqA3jbbfqpweAJtj7fFry3nzpadilYPdSdLWcR-KGhsnPibj4B6rtXz5KPMeLc90yynXu3wMXd2E-gyFYV6HLTMyuER87w5BbiZK/s1600/Venn+Diagram+of+3+Poker+Edges.jpg" height="309" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 0.5in;">The
bottom line is this: winning poker requires mastery of these three very different, but highly interrelated
abilities. Get all three things under control, and you will win a lot of
money at this game. Don’t, and you really, truly, seriously won’t. Ever.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 0.5in;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 0.5in;">‘Nuff said.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 0.5in;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 0.5in;">All-in for now...</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: 0.5in;">-Bug</span></div>
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<br /></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7288636227753973886.post-6625512168369073432015-04-05T08:10:00.000-07:002015-04-05T08:10:09.026-07:00Bug's Poker Tip #46<div style="text-align: center;">
<u>Tight is Right</u></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<u><br /></u></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFaUt6Gb9FSBBqFfAVomAubrNWW1qXK2nh91cAMFS_0YSM3a-1P7EmgYdfql7LrBxkY-h192TptwABtOXaMVhswYrZgM81m5poDsFSz7TF5xezCbznKpV7Diz8obCRImussO_Rqkb9YfpJ/s1600/Bug+Tip+Iceberg.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFaUt6Gb9FSBBqFfAVomAubrNWW1qXK2nh91cAMFS_0YSM3a-1P7EmgYdfql7LrBxkY-h192TptwABtOXaMVhswYrZgM81m5poDsFSz7TF5xezCbznKpV7Diz8obCRImussO_Rqkb9YfpJ/s1600/Bug+Tip+Iceberg.jpg" height="320" width="230" /></a></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Far, far too many beginners play far, far too many poker hands. And yes, I know why this is true--<i>I've come to play cards, dammit, so I'm gonna play my damn cards!</i>--but this is a major leak. Said simply, you should play only a small fraction of the hands dealt to you, especially in early position and from the blinds. Something like 5-10% in early position, increasing to somewhere around 20-25% in late position at a standard full-ring table. Everything else should be folded-- somewhere around 80-85% of the hands you see. Yes, four out of five hands or more. And yes, that's a lot of hands, and yes, it may be a little boring at first to fold far more hands than you play, but it's one of the fundamental secrets the pro's employ to making money at this game. If you play too many hands, you will leak away your profits. Drip, drip, drip.</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Think of it this way, when you're deciding to play a hand dealt to you, you're essentially deciding to pick a fight and/or join one already in motion. Wouldn't you want a high-quality weapon in hand when you jump into the fray of battle? As the Guru used to preach, "don't bring a knife to a sword fight." Isn't it better to battle from the high ground, where your card strength gives you an inherent advantage over the opposition, than face an up-hill slog holding inferior cards? Remember, two new cards are coming your way in just a few ticks of the clock. Pick your battles with the strong cards, and toss all the rest.</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
A good technique to train yourself to play a Tight-is-Right game is to implement the so-called raise-or-fold question in your preflop decision process. You literally ask yourself on every single hand dealt to you, "Should I raise this hand in this situation?" If the answer is "no" (which it will be most of the time), you should just muck the cards and move on. I've actually done training sessions with students where they are literally not allowed to call preflop with <i>any </i>hand. Of course this is not a long-term strategy during normal play, as there are definitely times to call preflop in poker (such as when you're dealt a small or medium pocket pair in late position and are facing an EP open-raise and are getting the right implied odds to set-mine) but for purposes of training, this kind of "raise-or-fold" technique can be helpful-- and enlightening. I wish I had a nickle for every time a student forced to play this way said something like, "Damn, I want to play this hand! But I know I shouldn't. Sigh. Fold..."</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
So, ask yourself: Do you want to play your cards, or do you want to make money? Only you can answer this for yourself, but I know what my own response is-- I like the green stuff. And raking in chips turns out to be not so boring after all.</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
All-in for now...</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
-Bug</div>
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7288636227753973886.post-25928156827103526462015-03-29T14:08:00.002-07:002015-03-29T14:08:41.334-07:00Time FliesBeen crazy busy with work, travel, and about a dozen non-poker project lately, so the posts here have be, ahem, sporadic at best. The next two months are going to be similarly crammed with non-poker time sinks, but I'm going to endeavor to at least post some poker olio on a more regular basis, starting today...<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Read a <a href="http://pokerandbridge.blogspot.com/2015/03/dont-rest-on-your-laurels.html" target="_blank">neat post</a> by Memphis Mojo today that helped re-inspire the posting. <a href="http://pokerandbridge.blogspot.com/2015/03/dont-rest-on-your-laurels.html" target="_blank">Check it out</a>. </li>
<li>Will almost certainly miss the WSOP again this year due to work commitments. Will be in Europe and/or Hawaii for most of May and June. I hate business travel and how it basically results in me putting my life on hold..</li>
<li>Le Monsieur and I are continuing to make slow but steady progress on the training app. In fact, we've got only a few lessons left in our first level-1 training set to produce, which means we'll next be looking for help coding up the app itself. We're also going to be asking for some feedback from poker enthusiasts, which means I'll be posting here on this blog for volunteers. More details will be forthcoming, but if you're at all interested drop me a line.</li>
<li>I'm only playing about 1-2 times a week, max, and then only 30 minutes or so per session. Very little NLHE; my focus has been on PLO, which has turned from a break-even proposition to a consistently (though moderately) profitable gig. Whilst NLHE has really gotten tougher over the past few years (due to Black Friday, etc.) the low-stakes PLO games are chock-full of, well, really bad players. There's some gold in them thar PLO hills, kids.</li>
<li>Lost a quads over quads hand the other day. Seriously.</li>
<li>I've canceled my subscription to Bart Hanson's podcast. The reason has nothing to do with his technical content, which remains REALLY good, imho. The reason instead is due to the fact that I rarely if ever have time to listen to him, and I've got about five months of back logged podcasts of his to listen to. Sigh.</li>
<li>Am doing a few coaching sessions with newbie students here and there, but my travel schedule is putting a crimp on that aspect of my game, too; it's hard to commit to a student when my week-to-week travel schedule is so fluid. For instance, I just got back from Hawaii, and am leaving for Colorado early this week. The following week will find me in Illinois, then back to Colorado. Did I mention I hate biz travel?</li>
</ul>
<br />
All-in for now...<br />
-Bug<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7288636227753973886.post-1783633215530407772015-03-07T16:19:00.002-08:002015-03-07T16:25:22.757-08:00Love those a-ha moments...<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRnKqWI-zD2HrxOnQc3u0TAUR4RWvuNcXOkLFlAgEnTdMN2Qm_rxiSH9HB7R31Q4JHyjyfWPbCNZrIQGrebCMPqQ_JNn8Jzrp3XJhsBLjPx5r4pfJR-uOAkcGFMJDecIuTKrcAHkH4AumR/s1600/Light-bulb-moment.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRnKqWI-zD2HrxOnQc3u0TAUR4RWvuNcXOkLFlAgEnTdMN2Qm_rxiSH9HB7R31Q4JHyjyfWPbCNZrIQGrebCMPqQ_JNn8Jzrp3XJhsBLjPx5r4pfJR-uOAkcGFMJDecIuTKrcAHkH4AumR/s1600/Light-bulb-moment.jpg" height="320" width="159" /></a></div>
<div>
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Did a fun online $0.25/$0.50 6max session/lesson with a student today. We were in mid-position and opened with a pair of eights to $1.40. The action folded to an aggressive recreational player on the button who flat called. Blinds folded. Flop came out 9-2-2 rainbow. We c-bet to roughly 60% of the pot. Villain re-raised us 3x.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
My student's immediate instinct was to fold, but before we did I asked what was the villain's preflop range? Remember, they just flatted an MP open raise and we're ~100bb deep. Student's answer: small- and mid-pairs and suited connectors.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
So the next question was: Good, so what are you afraid the villain has here? Answer: a nine? Maybe a two? Or an over pair?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Name the deuces that are in his range? Answer: Uh, there's only one pair of deuces.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Good. Now name the nines that are in his range? Answer: There are a few combos of pairs of nines. Or he could have T-9.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
And what over pairs are in his range? Answer: Uh, tens?</div>
<div>
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<div>
Really? At this aggro 6max table? Answer: No, he'd probably re-raise us with those pre.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
And how many other cards in his range missed this flop? Answer: Uh, a bunch.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
So what are you afraid of? Answer: Uh... uh... not much.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Based on his stats, is the villain aggressive post-flop? Answer: Uh, yes.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Does he multi-barrel? Answer: Uh, yes.</div>
<div>
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<div>
So do we have the best hand the vast majority of the time here? Answer: Yes. </div>
<div>
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Will he bluff a lot in this situation? Answer: Yes.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
So, when we have the best hand against a bluffer, what should we do? Answer: let him bluff.</div>
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Good. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
So we called. Turn was a three that completed the rainbow.</div>
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So, did this improve villains hand? Answer: No!</div>
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So has anything changed? Answer: No!</div>
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Do we still have the best hand the majority of the time? Answer: Yes!</div>
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Are there any draws we should be afraid of? Answer: No!</div>
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Is the villain likely to continue bluffing? Answer: Yes!</div>
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So what-- Answer: Let's let him keep bluffing us!</div>
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We check. Villain fires another barrel. </div>
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So should we call or raise? Answer: If we call, he'll have about a pot size bet left to bluff again with.</div>
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Do you think raising here is going to get worse hands to call? Answer: No.</div>
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Do you think he'll fold those few better hands in his range if we raise? Answer: No.</div>
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So raising accomplishes what? Answer: Nothing good!</div>
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So, what should we do? Answer: Call!</div>
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River was another blank. </div>
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Should we-- Answer: Nothing has changed! The only way he can win is to bluff us again. We should check!</div>
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We checked, villain shoved, my student snap-called, we doubled up.</div>
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A-ha, says the student. <b><i>A-HA!</i></b></div>
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All-in for now...</div>
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-Bug</div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7288636227753973886.post-78113617341907395662015-02-27T12:46:00.000-08:002015-02-27T12:47:57.734-08:00Mr. Multi Weighs In - The NutsIn my last blog post (<a href="http://pokerbug.blogspot.com/2015/02/some-miscellaneous-ramblings.html" target="_blank">here</a>) I wrote:<br />
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<i>In Hold’em, once all five cards are on the board, the nuts will always be three queens or higher. If you’ve figured out what you think is the best possible hand and it isn’t three queens or better, then look again because you missed something. </i></div>
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This morning, Mr. Multi sent me an email with his proof of this statement. With his permission to repost that email, here's today's guest post from MM on the subject:<br />
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<span style="color: red; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Here's my proof of this factoid, which I believe to be true. We have a full board and a two card hand.
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<span style="color: red; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">First, it should be apparent that the worst nut hand has to be at least a set. That's because you can hold a pocket pair and hit your set on the board. It's why set mining is so powerful--a single card on the board can give you a much better hand. And it's why we hope that the board pairs, because we understand how weak it may be. </span><br />
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<span style="color: red; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But which set is the lowest nut hand? </span><br />
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<span style="color: red; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Let's find a board that is as weak as possible. We need to eliminate the potential flushes, quads, full houses, and straights. Flushes are easy, there are no three cards of the same suit on the board. For quads and boats, there can be no pairs on the board. That leaves straights. </span><br />
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<span style="color: red; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To eliminate straights, the board needs to avoid two gaps that could be filled by a hand. The 2 and 3 are the lowest cards on this board, but a following 4, 5, or 6 would allow straight possibilities (e.g., a 532xx board could be filled with an A4 or 64 hand). The next cards then must be 7 and 8 so that there are three ranks between the board cards. Similarly, the 9, T, and J would allow straight possibilities, making the next lowest card a Q. That means a Q8732 (rainbow) board cannot have a straight, a quad, or a boat possibility, leaving only a set of queens as the nuts. </span><br />
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<span style="color: red; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Note that the Q8732 is the worst board for the trip queens, not necessarily the only board. It turns out there are 16 such boards, ranging from QJ762 down to our original Q8732. In every case the board contains a queen, a seven, and a two--each five ranks apart from the next to prevent straights. If you've ever heard the maxim that all straights must have a ten or a five, then this is the converse: there cannot be a straight if the board contains Q72. Or K72, K82, K83, those three cards each separated by at least five ranks. That's a total of 64 board where a set of kings or queens is the nut hand. </span><br />
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<span style="color: red; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Amusingly, an ace on the board assures that the worst nut hand is at least a straight. Since the ace plays both high and low, there's always a straight possibility. </span><br />
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<span style="color: red; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Having determined the ranges of sets as nut hands, should we concerned about remembering and using this. In short, no. We've found 64 boards where a king or queen set is the worst nut hand. There are 2,595,960 possible boards. Don't count on a set being the best hand; you're not losing much equity.</span><br />
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'Nuff said.<br />
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All in for now...<br />
-BugUnknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7288636227753973886.post-58772130580042979592015-02-26T12:40:00.004-08:002015-02-26T12:40:44.733-08:00Some Miscellaneous Ramblings...In my last post (<a href="http://pokerbug.blogspot.com/2015/01/want-to-get-better-at-poker-write-about.html" target="_blank">here</a>), I stated that one of the best ways to get better at poker is to write about it. You might be wondering whether my own poker game has been suffering due to the lack of blog post appearing here-- well, yes and no. It's true that it's been over a month since I posted here, but I have in fact been writing and working on poker quite a bit in my spare time. I'm traveling like a fiend for work lately, but in my limited spare time in airports I've been working remotely with Le Monsieur on the ABC lessons. We're making slow-but-steady progress, and in fact I may have a announcement related to the project that I'll post here in a few days from now on the blog. Stay tuned.<br />
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And speaking of Le Monsieur, he was in fourth overall place with a few hundred players let in the WRGPT "glaciers" event the last time we spoke, which is absolutely awesome. Mr. Multi is also still grinding up a chip stack in the event, tripling up overnight in fact when his AK held up multi-way. Wooot!<br />
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And speaking of writing, long time readers of this blog know that I'm an Evernote evangelist. The software has really changed (mostly for the better) how I work and store information at work and at home. I've also been writing ABC lessons from within Evernote, but honestly it makes for a poor word processor. I've been a long-time Word user for any serious writing, but the formatting limitations (that they call "features") of that package has always left me wanting. Enter the program "Scrivener," which is a word-processing/publishing package that many professional fiction and non-fiction authors use. A few weeks ago, I downloaded the trial version, and after a somewhat rocky start, I bought the program and am now hooked on it as my de facto way of writing articles, books, and, yes, ABC poker lessons. Exporting to a myriad of formats after getting a document written and looking pretty is dead simple, and there are a ton of little cool features that make writing a pleasure in the software. Be warned, however, if you decide to give it ago-- the learning curve is steep.<br />
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Saw an interesting poker fact the other day that got stuck in my brain. I even bounced it off Mr. Multi, who also found it thought provoking. I am still wrapping my head around the veracity of it, but here it is for you to ponder, too:<br />
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;">In Hold’em, once all five cards are on the board, the nuts will always be three queens or higher. If you’ve figured out what you think is the best possible hand and it isn’t three queens or better, then look again because you missed something.</i></div>
<i style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><br /></i>
Weird if true, eh?<br />
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Gotta run.<br />
All-in for now....<br />
-BugUnknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7288636227753973886.post-78162652874734048022015-01-19T12:32:00.000-08:002015-01-19T16:14:40.932-08:00Want to get better at poker? Write about it.<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>"Learn as much by writing as by reading."</i> - Lord John Acton</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0SqE-GbF2pYPIAeT0KxGfcfwjy0W-cM6gxFKVMgDcpg6scX-o-svp1u6MnFmayWhuF7BE0RFyk5QLJgEnKEWiF6Df038SThssEI4FxcPSNHhy4a6pDEry5EXq5N2xWmnHcF2SYvDE3iLI/s1600/writing-pen-on-paper-crosshatch_0.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0SqE-GbF2pYPIAeT0KxGfcfwjy0W-cM6gxFKVMgDcpg6scX-o-svp1u6MnFmayWhuF7BE0RFyk5QLJgEnKEWiF6Df038SThssEI4FxcPSNHhy4a6pDEry5EXq5N2xWmnHcF2SYvDE3iLI/s1600/writing-pen-on-paper-crosshatch_0.jpg" height="169" width="320" /></a></div>
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Long ago, one of the best things I ever did for my poker game was start this blog. Writing about poker means thinking about poker, which in turn means learning-- which means improving. Other players that I know who have taken up similar habits of blogging about poker, or even just writing down hands and situations and analyzing what they did right and wrong, have similarly benefited from the process. Writing about poker helps your win rate.<br />
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Lots of poker coaches feel the same way. They encourage their students to keep records, write down key hands, and, yes, blog. Recently, poker author and coach Nathan "BlackRain79" Williams posted on his <a href="http://www.blackrain79.com/" target="_blank">blog</a> about the benefits of blogging. He wrote: "It doesn't even matter if anybody is reading [what you write] or not. I had literally zero people reading this blog for the first three years. It didn't matter..."<br />
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There's an old adage that the best way to learn something is to teach it to someone else. I personally learned this years ago in college when I took a night job teaching calculus at a local community college. I thought I knew math before I started that job-- and boy, was I mistaken. Yes, I could solve problems, but no, I couldn't not explain the how or the why very well. The good news is that by the time that first semester was over I easily had increased my knowledge of calculus by more than 100%, and I did so by learning how to explain to others. I literally became an expert by teaching.<br />
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I think it was Albert Einstein who famously said, "You do not really understand something unless you can explain it to your grandmother." Whenever I post to this blog, I essentially put on my "explaining hat" and imagine that I'm teaching an imaginary reader something. If I can coherently articulate a concept or idea in writing so that a generic reader can understand it, then by definition I also get it. Which means my game has gotten better.<br />
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Way up at the top of this very web page, right underneath the title "PokerBug" are the words <b>Docendo Disco, Scribendo Cogito -- Ship It</b>. The Latin part of this phrase translates to "I learn by teaching, I think by writing."<br />
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I'll leave it to the reader to figure out the "Ship It" part. :-)<br />
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All-in for now...<br />
-BugUnknownnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7288636227753973886.post-14909885874640675772015-01-05T19:01:00.001-08:002015-01-05T19:01:15.991-08:00Bug's Poker Tip #45<div style="text-align: center;">
<u>Accept Variance</u></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCazux-McJTVCw0aOC-bGpYGr8sYMOL7WghUxxFYsRRCTM8TcSDkxLFhHlYEHD0BdaPhfMjzw1uJ4jGj8GfD_xLWXOk2lSCak4zsxFifkX2cU4czXHWScVTvGiqqNls9GDYmQD2eXk_jq7/s1600/Bug+Tip+Iceberg.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCazux-McJTVCw0aOC-bGpYGr8sYMOL7WghUxxFYsRRCTM8TcSDkxLFhHlYEHD0BdaPhfMjzw1uJ4jGj8GfD_xLWXOk2lSCak4zsxFifkX2cU4czXHWScVTvGiqqNls9GDYmQD2eXk_jq7/s1600/Bug+Tip+Iceberg.jpg" height="320" width="230" /></a></div>
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This might just be the hardest concept for poker beginners to understand. Or accept. Hell, I know plenty of experienced players who have trouble accepting it. I've blogged about Variance off-and-on over the years, but it still bears repeating: just because you are a good player does not mean you will win at this game-- at least not over the short term. Poker may be skilled based, but only over the long run. The Guru used to teach to his class--quite emphatically--that poker is 100% skill-based, but what he meant was it was skill-based over the lifetime of a player. Whether we like it or not, Lady Luck plays a significant role over the course of a session, a week, a month. You can be smart enough to get all your money in preflop with aces against deuces over and over, but luck is going to determine if your Rockets hold up or not against the Ducks. Over time, Aces will win a significant fraction of the time, but on a hand-by-hand basis there are no guarantees. </div>
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It is important to understand that just because you are currently winning at poker, it does not mean you are actually playing well. Conversely, losing does not necessarily mean you are playing poorly, either. Variance can greatly skew your short term results. You have to evaluate all your hands--both winning and losing--to determine if you're making good decisions. And that's all you can do. The results don't really matter. Why? Because of Variance, my friend. Accept it.</div>
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All-in for now...</div>
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-Bug</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0