As if I had jinxed things by mentioning in my last post the "glaciers attack Canada" poker-by-email tournament I was playing in, I busted out. The game started back in October, and I went out in 450th place out of 900 original entrants. Here's what happened:
I had an average chip stack of T32,000 at the table. Blinds, however, were T700/T1400 with a T200 ante. In other words, my M was something like 7-8, which Harrington calls the "yellow" zone, which means you have to start thinking about making a move with a reasonable hand and try to double up.
As I posted last time, I was third to act after the BB. The UTG player limped for T1400, the guy in seat 2 raised to T4200 (he was the table big stack), and I called with QQ. At the time, I thought this was a clever move, as I was sure I would get it folded around to the UTG limper who would fold. Well, it did fold around to him, but he called, and we were 3-way into the flop, which came rags.
UTG checked, next guy raised to T12,000, and I was left with a decision. Bret and I talked the hand over before I acted (this is the beauty of poker by email; you have lots of time to figure things out before acting). We put the UTG player on a small to medium pair. The flop might have hit him, but the old "bet your set" rule would have dictated him betting into us here post-flop, so he probably whiffed. The second guy, however, was harder to figure out. The sizes of his raises and how he was acting convinced Bret and I, however, that he either had AK or a hand like JJ. My QQ dominated both of these types of holdings, but was I willing to risk my tournament life on this hand? Bret thought I should fold (i.e., live to fight another day), but in the end I decided the only hands that I should be afraid of were AA and KK, and this guy's actions made me believe he didn't have either. More importantly, the blinds were going to hit me soon, and my M was shrinking deeper into yellow on its way to the red zone. I decided to push.
... which was the right decision AND the wrong decision, it turns out, as the UTG folded but the big stack, however, was getting decent odds to call... which he did.... and turned up TT. My joy was short lived, unfortunately, because a third T hit on the river and I was sent packing.
The bad news, obviously, is that I was busted out of the tournament. The good news is that Bret and I showed that with some detective work, we could figure out the holdings of the players we were up against fairly accurately. The bad news is that even knowing the exact hand of your opp doesn't always matter. In a sense, you're still rolling the dice, even if you have the opp dominated. The dice may be heavily weighted in your favor, but unless you hold the nuts, you're still letting randomness and luck factor into the outcome.
So what could/should I have done differently? Bret thinks I made a mistake by letting any cards hit the felt at all; the secret to Annette Roulette is not letting the opp see cards. I should have taken it down preflop by raising (i.e., pushing), or I should have folded. Bret says that anytime you let the cards actually determine the outcome, you've given up your edge.
You know what? I think he's right. Here's another example: I played a $2 game this morning and made it to the money by playing smart, tight, aggressive poker. I ended up going out in second place to the world's biggest donk. This guy had a VPIP of 65% and basically played any two cards that were shiny and/or bright. Throughout the game, he sucked out continually on the river and single-handedly took out 5 of the nine players. When he and I got heads up, he had a significant chip advantage on me. My death knell came when I was dealt 99 and didn't push hard enough preflop. He stuck around with T7-offsuit and went runner-runner for a straight to take me out. I thought I could get clever and double up with my relatively strong heads-up two-pair hand, but what I forgot to factor in was that I was letting cards be dealt. By doing so, I was letting luck enter into the hand.
I still haven't fully figured out Annette Roulette , but I think this is a fundamental part of the strategy: If at all possible, don't let the cards determine the outcome of a hand.
Yikes, that actually sounds fairly profound. I talked it over a bit with the guru, and he says this is one of those "Aha!" moments that elevates your game to the next level. You read this all the time in books (i.e., your own cards don't matter that much), but I think I'm finally starting to understand it. Removing as much luck from the play of a hand as possible is the key to winning poker. The trick is having the balls to play like a girl named Annette.
Next October, I'll let you know if it works.... ;-)
Had a bad day playing yesterday; lost a fair bit at limit and went 0-3 in SnGs.
24-Hour Bankroll Change: -7.5%
All-in for now...
-Bug
No comments:
Post a Comment