A Tale of 3 Sets

“Bet your set.”

You read this basic admonition in poker texts all the time. It is beginning poker strategy dispensed by pros and amateurs alike. Everyone knows you're supposed to push your three-of-a-kind hands relatively hard post-flop, especially into a multi-way pot. Trips and sets are vulnerable; you cannot let the opp see cheap cards and out-draw you.

So then why is it so hard for me to follow this simple advice? I was burned twice yesterday with sets, both of them QQQ. Talk about demoralizing. You wake up to a nice pair of queens and then flop a third. All you can think about is the gigantic pile of chips that you’re going to rake with this monster. How, you wonder, can I squeeze the most money out of the opp? Ah, I know: slow play! That’s the ticket!

Except it rarely works.

I’m in a $6 SnG yesterday and flop QQQ in a multi-way pot early in the game. It checked around to me, and instead of betting hard into it, I checked behind. Yada, yada, yada. I ended up losing to a runner-runner straight and got knocked out of the SnG ninth place. Arhgh. If I had led out big on the flop, I would have either taken the pot down then and there, or, more likely, winnowed the field to a single opp. The joker who ended up taking me out would probably have folded on the flop and my set would have held up.

Bet your set.

Of course I jump into another tourney without properly debriefing myself on the first one. Of course I end up getting QQ in middle position early in the game. Of course the flop comes Q-A-x. I’m up against a single player, so of course I check, hoping he has the ace. He checks behind. Turn is a blank. I bet a little. He calls. River is a K. I check, hoping to check raise. He bets, I raise, he pushes, I call... and run into a set of kings. Arhgh. If I had bet on the flop, the guy with KK just might have folded, having probably thought I had hit the ace and his kings were no good. True, maybe he wouldn’t (about half of guys at the $6 tables can’t fold a pair of kings), but you never know. He was a decent player and just may have mucked his hand on the flop or turn. But he didn’t, because I let him see some cheap cards. I had once again hoisted myself on a petard of slow-play greed.

Bet your set.

Third game, I pick up KK in late position. I raise and get three callers. Flop is K-T-x. This time, for a change, I bet fairly hard and everyone folds, save for the BB who smooth calls. Turn is a blank, I bet fairly hard again, he thinks for a while, then calls. River comes another ten. I’m worried I’m up against quad tens, but I get all my money in with my kings full of tens. The opp turns up T-x, for a surprising weak trip ten hand. Woo hoo! My kings held up. Amazing what happens when you don’t try to get tricky.

Repeat after me: Bet your set.

Moneyed in 4 of 7 SnGs (sounds like I played a lot, but the reality is I crashed and burned out of three of the tourneys, quite literally, within minutes of starting each).
Played (and won) some $1/2 limit, both 6max and 9-handed.
24-hour Bankroll Change: +2.64%
All-in for now…
-Bug