Well, it's July 1st and as promised I'm back in the YIPES saddle. The book project that had me so befuddled is now 99.9% complete, so I can start playing the monthly double-up game on PS again. Checking my account for the first time in 30 days, it appears I have $52.89 in the bankroll. With a target 'roll of $80 due in 31 days, I have to average ~88-cents a day in profit to keep up.
I'm not quite sure how I will approach this issue of earning 88 cents per day, but my first hunch was I'd play SnGs. The problem is that I think I can only really "afford" to play at $1+.2 level, and if I assume I money in half of the games I play (which is certainly do-able), then the calculated average I will earn per game is a meager 30 cents. I would have to increase my money rate to 70% to make the required 88 cents per day. Now, I'm not too bad at SnGs, especially the low-limit variety, but I sure ain't near that good. So what to do?
One option is to play at higher-stakes SnGs. Poker Stars has a $3.4 SnG that, if I average 50% in the money, will net $1.10 per game in profit. The problem with this is I've had streaks where I've lost 8 SnGs in a row. Now, 8 x $3.40 = $27.20 in losses. That's nearly half of my bank roll. Pretty scary stuff, but maybe necessary.
On the other hand, if I assume I only have 1 hour to play per day (which is conservative) I might consider going back to limit poker. The problem with this is the average I've been earning at the 2/4-cent levels is 7.5xBB per hour. This is also just 30 cents per hour. Worse, the 7.5xBB per hour number is probably not valid at higher limits. I'm guessing something like 4-5xBB per hour is more realistic at the next few levels up. This means I'd have to play at the 10/20-cent level to meet the 90 cents a day average. Again, scary stuff.
Sigh. I guess I knew that I'd have to start playing at higher stakes soon, but it's still a bit sobering to actually run the math and see how harsh this game is going to get--and how fast it's going to accelerate. Just for my own peace of mind, I'm going to not calculate how bad things will get next month. No sense stressing out about it before I have to. For now, I have to go get busy making 90 cents an hour.
All-in for now…
-Bug
I'm not quite sure how I will approach this issue of earning 88 cents per day, but my first hunch was I'd play SnGs. The problem is that I think I can only really "afford" to play at $1+.2 level, and if I assume I money in half of the games I play (which is certainly do-able), then the calculated average I will earn per game is a meager 30 cents. I would have to increase my money rate to 70% to make the required 88 cents per day. Now, I'm not too bad at SnGs, especially the low-limit variety, but I sure ain't near that good. So what to do?
One option is to play at higher-stakes SnGs. Poker Stars has a $3.4 SnG that, if I average 50% in the money, will net $1.10 per game in profit. The problem with this is I've had streaks where I've lost 8 SnGs in a row. Now, 8 x $3.40 = $27.20 in losses. That's nearly half of my bank roll. Pretty scary stuff, but maybe necessary.
On the other hand, if I assume I only have 1 hour to play per day (which is conservative) I might consider going back to limit poker. The problem with this is the average I've been earning at the 2/4-cent levels is 7.5xBB per hour. This is also just 30 cents per hour. Worse, the 7.5xBB per hour number is probably not valid at higher limits. I'm guessing something like 4-5xBB per hour is more realistic at the next few levels up. This means I'd have to play at the 10/20-cent level to meet the 90 cents a day average. Again, scary stuff.
Sigh. I guess I knew that I'd have to start playing at higher stakes soon, but it's still a bit sobering to actually run the math and see how harsh this game is going to get--and how fast it's going to accelerate. Just for my own peace of mind, I'm going to not calculate how bad things will get next month. No sense stressing out about it before I have to. For now, I have to go get busy making 90 cents an hour.
All-in for now…
-Bug
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