Been thinking about bet-size strategy a bit lately. Specifically, I’ve been really trying to ask myself every time I’m dealt a playable hand what, exactly, I want to achieve with the two cards I’m facing. Obviously, I want to make the most money I can with my hand, but there’s more to it than that. For instance, there’s the whole issue of minimizing losses with the hand.
For example, whenever I’m dealt pocket aces or kings, the first thing that jumps into my mind is “Woo hoo! I have one of the best possible starting hands in poker! This is great!” But what I really should be thinking about is how do I extract the maximum money from the hand….AND…. how do I lose the minimum?” Yes, it’s that second part that matters perhaps even more than the first.
With aces, I clearly want to get heads up with the opp. If I’m facing just one opponent, the odds of my rockets holding up are something like 85% if we run it out through the river hot and cold. If I could always get all my money into the center pre-flop with aces or kings, my bankroll would be much, much larger than it currently is. Sure, I’d lose my table stack ~15% of the time with rockets, but it would be more than made up for by the times I won.
If I’m facing two players with rockets, however, I have to proceed more cautiously, as my aces are good only something like 50% of the time now. And if I face three or more opp, then I almost have to treat the aces like any other pair: i.e., no set, no bet. Maybe just check call down to the river in a limit game (especially if the board is scary or there’s a lot of action after the flop). In a NL game or a tourney, however, I probably just want to get off the hand to any serious action post flop.
Similarly, if I have a drawing hand, like a nut flush or big straight draw, my goal may not be to get heads up. In fact, what I think I want to achieve with this type of hand more often than not is to get as many people into the hand as possible, and do so as cheaply as possible. This is especially true in cash game or a tourney when the blinds are low. If I miss on the flop, I’m done with the hand and I’ve MINIMIZED my losses. But if I hit the flop hard, I’m much more likely to get paid off. In other words, with drawing hands, I want to get in as cheap as possible for two fundamental reasons: 1) to minimize my losses when I miss; and 2) to encourage lots of pre-flop callers so that when I do hit, I’m more likely to get paid off.
In a tourney, the blind structure adds a few wrinkles to the thought process. When the blind are low, stealing isn’t really worth the effort. The risk:reward ratio just isn’t there to justify betting large with even my big hands, like aces. If I raise a large amount (e.g., 3-4 x BB), I risk getting everyone to fold and I just take down a small pot. If I limp, however, I risk running into a large field of callers and suddenly my rockets are a big dog pre-flop. The trick, I think, is to slightly decrease the bet size to lure in one or maybe two players and then proceed from there. The earlier my position at the table, the larger I have to bet, and the later my position, the smaller my bet.
As the blinds start going up in a tourney, I may just want my big hands to take down the pot then and there because the blinds alone may be worth stealing. So my bet size should probably increase. If I get called, then I still have a chance of my hand holding up, but if everyone folds, I have just bought another free lap of the table.
VPIP of the opp also comes into play. A loose player is more likely to call a larger bet than a tight player, for instance. I can increase the bet size if there’s a 40% player downstream of me, but I probably need to drop the bet size considerably if the players to my left have 20% VPIPS. I also obviously have to factor in the likelihood of upstream limpers or bettors sticking around. If a maniac on my right raises, I probably want to re-raise or maybe even push. If the upstream opp is a weak tight player, and I think the players to my left are going to fold, I probably should min raise and price the original bettor in to making the call.
Of course none of this is ground-breaking news to anyone experienced at poker. But it’s amazing how easy it is for me to forget these basics when those rockets show up unexpectedly and my brain immediately goes into “woo hoo!” mode.
All-in for now…
-Bug
PS. YIPES continues erratically up and down. I still am having trouble getting past $100. As of this morning, I’m up to $120, but I’ve been in this bankroll neighborhood a number of times before and it ain’t easy staying here. There seems to be a black hole of poker-chip attraction at the century mark for this bug. We’ll see if I can break free from its gravitational pull this time. There’s only 15 days left in August to get to $160. It’s going to be very interesting to see if I can make it.
For example, whenever I’m dealt pocket aces or kings, the first thing that jumps into my mind is “Woo hoo! I have one of the best possible starting hands in poker! This is great!” But what I really should be thinking about is how do I extract the maximum money from the hand….AND…. how do I lose the minimum?” Yes, it’s that second part that matters perhaps even more than the first.
With aces, I clearly want to get heads up with the opp. If I’m facing just one opponent, the odds of my rockets holding up are something like 85% if we run it out through the river hot and cold. If I could always get all my money into the center pre-flop with aces or kings, my bankroll would be much, much larger than it currently is. Sure, I’d lose my table stack ~15% of the time with rockets, but it would be more than made up for by the times I won.
If I’m facing two players with rockets, however, I have to proceed more cautiously, as my aces are good only something like 50% of the time now. And if I face three or more opp, then I almost have to treat the aces like any other pair: i.e., no set, no bet. Maybe just check call down to the river in a limit game (especially if the board is scary or there’s a lot of action after the flop). In a NL game or a tourney, however, I probably just want to get off the hand to any serious action post flop.
Similarly, if I have a drawing hand, like a nut flush or big straight draw, my goal may not be to get heads up. In fact, what I think I want to achieve with this type of hand more often than not is to get as many people into the hand as possible, and do so as cheaply as possible. This is especially true in cash game or a tourney when the blinds are low. If I miss on the flop, I’m done with the hand and I’ve MINIMIZED my losses. But if I hit the flop hard, I’m much more likely to get paid off. In other words, with drawing hands, I want to get in as cheap as possible for two fundamental reasons: 1) to minimize my losses when I miss; and 2) to encourage lots of pre-flop callers so that when I do hit, I’m more likely to get paid off.
In a tourney, the blind structure adds a few wrinkles to the thought process. When the blind are low, stealing isn’t really worth the effort. The risk:reward ratio just isn’t there to justify betting large with even my big hands, like aces. If I raise a large amount (e.g., 3-4 x BB), I risk getting everyone to fold and I just take down a small pot. If I limp, however, I risk running into a large field of callers and suddenly my rockets are a big dog pre-flop. The trick, I think, is to slightly decrease the bet size to lure in one or maybe two players and then proceed from there. The earlier my position at the table, the larger I have to bet, and the later my position, the smaller my bet.
As the blinds start going up in a tourney, I may just want my big hands to take down the pot then and there because the blinds alone may be worth stealing. So my bet size should probably increase. If I get called, then I still have a chance of my hand holding up, but if everyone folds, I have just bought another free lap of the table.
VPIP of the opp also comes into play. A loose player is more likely to call a larger bet than a tight player, for instance. I can increase the bet size if there’s a 40% player downstream of me, but I probably need to drop the bet size considerably if the players to my left have 20% VPIPS. I also obviously have to factor in the likelihood of upstream limpers or bettors sticking around. If a maniac on my right raises, I probably want to re-raise or maybe even push. If the upstream opp is a weak tight player, and I think the players to my left are going to fold, I probably should min raise and price the original bettor in to making the call.
Of course none of this is ground-breaking news to anyone experienced at poker. But it’s amazing how easy it is for me to forget these basics when those rockets show up unexpectedly and my brain immediately goes into “woo hoo!” mode.
All-in for now…
-Bug
PS. YIPES continues erratically up and down. I still am having trouble getting past $100. As of this morning, I’m up to $120, but I’ve been in this bankroll neighborhood a number of times before and it ain’t easy staying here. There seems to be a black hole of poker-chip attraction at the century mark for this bug. We’ll see if I can break free from its gravitational pull this time. There’s only 15 days left in August to get to $160. It’s going to be very interesting to see if I can make it.
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