Just read the summary results of a March study that PokerStars commissioned via a company called Cigital. In the study, Cigital analyzed 103 million cash game hands of poker from the PS site. Of these hundred plus million hands, 75% never made it to the show down at the river. In other words, in 3 out of 4 hands, someone made someone else fold their hand to win the pot and never had to show their cards. In the remaining 25% of hands, the best hand won only half of the time, because the other half of the time a better hand had already folded, leaving the third best hand to battle with the second best.
Per the written conclusions of the study, the best dealt hand takes down the pot only 12% of the time in a typical middle stakes Texas Hold'em game. Therefore, they concluded, poker is 88% skill and 12% luck. And, therefore, poker is not a game of chance and should be exempt from the UIGEA law. Hmmm....
Dunno if I completely buy this interpretation of the data presented in the summary I read, but it definitely is interesting that only 1 in 8 times does the best dealt two cards win the pot in a hold'em hand. Wild.
I'd love to see the raw data from this study.... not to determine whether poker is skill or luck (I'm convinced it's mostly (100%?) skill over the long run, and luck in the short run). No, the reason I'd like to see the data is I'm certain there is a a ton of good strategy to be uncovered by just seeing how different hands play out. Does a small wired pair, for instance, have a higher EV by limping into a pot and seeing a flop, or raising to take it down X-percentage of time. What if the opposition is aggressive? Passive? Loose? Tight? How does that change things? When is the best time to check-raise bluff? On the flop, turn, or river? What flops scare what types of players? Etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. It sure would be cool to see the numbers and become a luckier skilled player.
All-in for now...
-Bug
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