Special Bug Pages

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Statistical Gaps

Just got back from my weekly poker group meeting (as an aside, whenever I write those words, I have this mental image of me standing up in front of group and saying, "Hi. My name is Bug, and I'm a poker addict."... but I digress)

Anyway, what we discussed at length today was PokerTracker3 (PT3) stats, and how meaningful they may (or may not) be. A cool feature of the new PT3 HUD setup is the ability to have a very detailed pop-up screen appear when you click on a player's stats. This pop-up actually has 5 tabs (General, Preflop, Flop, Turn, and River) and provides a ton of positionally-dependent stats. For example, in the heat of battle you can look up a player's "3bet on the turn frequency" to help make a tough call or not. Raster gave a short demo of how the stats can be configured in the pop-up windows.

As we were looking through the stats, we had a 6max $100NL game up that we were data-mining. During the session, we saw a hand (QQ vs. KK) that ended up 5-bet preflop (yes, all the money finally went in). It was fairly obvious to us voyeurs that the one player had a monster (AA or KK), but we wondered if any of the pop-up stats could have alerted the QQ-holder to this fact. As a result, we had a lengthy (and spirited) debate on the merits of the pop-up stats, what's important and what isn't to look at, whether 100 hands of data is sufficient to make a decision on, etc. This kind of discussion is exactly what a poker strategy meeting should be; i.e., lots of debate and information thrown about to help stimulate the brain cells and help "pre-think" strategy. Good stuff.

Oh, and while on the subject of PT3, I picked up a neat idea from Raster. I've customized my HUD to color code a player's VPIP; for instance, if the VPIP is less than 20, I have the number turn red, which helps alert me to the fact that he's probably a good player. If the VPIP is between 20 and 30, I make the color yellow (for "caution"), and if it's over 30, I make it green (for "fish"). Anyway, Raster mentioned that he also color codes the # of hands stat. If the number is less than some threshold (50, I think), the number is displayed as red (again, for "danger"-- as in there isn't enough data yet to make reasonable statistical inferences; or, as the Guru said (evidently channeling Yogi Bera): "It's significantly insignificant.") Similarly, if the number of hands is between 50 and 100 (I think these are Raster's numbers), the stat turns yellow. And if it's greater than 100, the stat turns green. Prety cool. I'm going to configure my own stats in a similar fashion....

In other meeting news, I presented a few slides on Sklanky's Gap Concept. At last week's meeting this topic was touched on, but a couple of folks commented to me offline that they didn't fully understand it. Ergo, the slides shown below.

All-in for now....
-Bug




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