Buster Busts Bust'ems

Mr. Multi sent me the following email re: Negreanu's so-called "bust-em" hands (e.g., suited connectors, one gappers, etc). At first, what he was saying sounded wrong, but after looking through my own PT3 data I'm inclined to agree with him.
All-in for now...
-Bug

"I'm intrigued by this concept of a "bust-em" hand, as popularized by Negreanu. It seems to be a major recipe of small-ball poker, play some hand that other players can't put you on, hit part of the flop or turn, control the pot size, and see if you can hit the big draw. It requires a lot of post-flop savvy, but the rewards are supposedly good.

Now, I have no savvy, much less the post-flop type, so I'm wondering if I can make a few rules about where and how to play bust-em hands. My first question was, what are these hands? My assumption was suited connectors and middle pairs, basically hands with good straight or flush possibilities. Is this true?

I will redefine bust-em hands to be those hands that pay off better than 50 BB. It can't be bust-em if everyone folds or the payout is small. At my typical 0.05/0.02 NL game, I need to earn $2.50 for it to be a bust-em hand.

If I data mine the PT3 data base for hands that pay off well, I should see the supposed bust-em hands. Of course, if I don't normally play them, then I'm not going to see them in the data. Skipping around that conundrum, I set the PT3 filter to look at my 0.05/0.02 NL hands where I won more than 50 BB. This is done through the Misc/Results/Won Hand option and selecting "Won between 50BB and 100 BB" and "Won over 100 BB hands".

Out of 6989 total hands I won a total of 20 of them with big pots. Twenty?! Every 350th hand. This is a tough game. My total earnings are $89. I have to believe that waiting for the big payoff is not the way to earn money...at least it's not how I earn it.

What are those big hands? It turns out a quarter of them are AA, half are the other pocket pairs, a couple of AJo and JTs, and one each of AQs and A9o. Not a suited connector in the lot.

The position was also an interesting question. Eight of the hands were played in third position, 5 in the cutoff, and the rest spread among the other seats.

If I open up my bust-em qualifications to 10 BB wins or better, I have a sample of 113 hands, or one of every 62 hands. Of course, I'm only winning $0.50 or better (or in heads up, about a $1 pot). I've noticed lots of players at these stakes tend to buy in with $2 instead of the full amount, so if I'm busting them, I'm not getting paid off with a big stack.

The hands are about the same distribution, 15 rockets, 36 other pocket pairs, and a bunch of big aces. Suited connectors? JTs paid off twice (I hit the flush and two pair). QJs and 32s each paid off once.

I'd have to say that either bust-em hands aren't worth it, or I'm not playing the hands that might bust em. Something to consider with that last point: according to PT3 I've had 131 that ended in a straight and 72 that gave me a flush. However, I pre-flop folded 22 and 12 of them. So I can't believe I missed that many opportunities."