Tiny Light Bulbs

Had a small "a-ha" moment yesterday. Was playing a little $10NL 6max and had AKo UTG. I bet and got called by a decent player who was playing at 23/15 w/ a moderate cold-call percentage. I had seen him chase both a straight and a flush earlier in the session.

Flop came T72 with two spades. I c-bet and got insta-called. At this point I was putting the villain on top pair, a monster, or a big draw. Turn was an offsuit Q. I two-barreled to continue the bluff and, more importantly, to protect against the draw. If he 3bet me, I was going to fold, as I was certainly beat. Instead, he called, so I narrowed the range to: 1) a draw (most likely); or 2) a float with a monster (less likely, but possible). Fortunately, the river was a beautiful off-suit J, giving me the nuts....

....and this is when I had my a-ha moment.

Normally, I would bet into this pot without giving it too much thought. I had the nuts, after all, right? Why wouldn't I bet?

Answer: because if my read was right and the opp was indeed on a draw that missed, he was going to fold. The only way I was going to get any more money out of him was to check and let him make the mistake. I.e., let him bluff. In other words, let him think that I thought he was floating me, and now I was giving up on a missed draw.

So, I checked. As hoped, he fired a pot-sized bet into me. I stalled for a long time, and then min-reraised him. He thought for an equally long time, and then called, showing AsJs for the missed nut flush and the second top pair top kicker.

Lesson Learned: When you suspect the opp has missed and you have a strong hand, let him make the mistake on the river, not you...

All-ha-In for now...
-Bug