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Monday, December 21, 2009

Going Ag-rogue: Aggression Factors vs. Frequencies

Discovered something interesting the other day about the difference between the Poker Tracker Aggression Frequency and Aggression Factor statistics. Both numbers quantify how "aggressive" on average someone plays poker. I've heard people say that the two numbers report the same information, and it's just that they just do so in different manner. I.e., lore has it that it doesn't really matter which of these two numbers you use in the HUD, as long as you're consistent and understand what the stat means.

The question I wondered is: is this true; i.e., are the two stats really the same? And, more importantly, is one of these stats more useful/accurate/beneficial than the other?

Per the PT3 user guide, Aggression Factor (AF) is a measure of how aggressive or passive the player is across all streets. It is calculated as follows:

AF = ( Total Times Bet + Total Times Raised ) / (Total Times Called )

Similarly, Aggression Frequency (AFq) is a measure of how frequently a player is aggressive across all streets. It is calculated as follows:

AFq = [ ( Total Times Bet + Total Times Raised ) / (Total Times Bet + Total Times Raised + Total Times Called + Total Times Folded ) ] * 100

To see if there's a difference, let's look at two different players. Player 1 has bet and raised a total of 100 times, has called 100 times, and has folded exactly zero times. Player 2 has also bet and raised a total of 100 times, called 100 times, but has folded 1000 times.

If we calculate the two stats, we see that the two players have identical aggression factors of 1. Their aggression frequency stats, however, are very different:

Now, these two players are clearly different animals, but if we were to rely on just their AF stat, we might not think this is true. In fact, Player 2 is much more "passive" than Player 1, as indicated by their AFq stat.

In other words, it appears AFq is a more reliable indicator of a player's tendencies than AF. Said another way, I'm going to change my HUD stats today to start displaying AFq. Swimming with the sharks requires accurate sonar...

All-in for now...
-Bug

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