Friday, December 18, 2009

Lead vs. Helium Balloons

First the bad news: I've been getting crushed over on Full Tilt. I've been playing $25NL 6max, and have been suffering a ton of beats. This itself is bad enough, but I've also been tilting away over there, and donked off about $50 the other night, trying to "get even." Stupid…

Okay, now for the good news. I just passed the 4K hands in Operation Hindenburg on 'Stars. It's still too early to make any really meaningful report of my results, but I'm up about $40 overall so far, with an average win rate of about 8BB/100 hands (It's not 10xBB/100 because I have a few hundred early hands of $10NL that pollute the data). Still, 8BB/100 is not too shabby. I've run pretty well, so I don't think this number is sustainable. In fact, I suspect my results after 10K hands will be more like 5-6 BB/100… if I continue to play well. We'll see.

Being on vacation means I'm playing a few times a day, whenever the mood strikes, and if I don't "feel it" at the tables, I simply quit and come back later. Being in the right frame of mind is incredibly important for me; playing well seems to be a fine line between being on the edge of my seat and not worrying about the money.

Another thing to note is I've opened up my game a little bit, and the results have been positive. I'm averaging 21% VPIP overall, with a 15% PFR. I think I'm still running a little less aggressive preflop than I should be, but for whatever reason it's hard for me to 3bet someone with TT-type hands, even when I'm in position. I think this is a leak in my game, but it's a tough psychological one to plug.

I am folding in the blinds a lot, and not getting myself into situations where I have to play pots out of position with marginal holdings; being able to pass up JTo to a button steal, and waiting for a better situation is all-important in this silly game. My steal percentage is at 41%, which I think is OK, but I'm not completely sure; I'm experimenting a bit with different approaches. I'm cold calling a little too much, too, at 8%. I think a big part of this is set-mining, but I'm afraid some of it is hands like AQo IP, which I probably should be folding a little more and/or 3-betting.

That said, I am 3-betting a lot more than I have in the past, and the results are paying off. My 3bet % is a shade over 5%, which is about double what it was in the past. I'm careful not to 3bet calling stations unless I have a monster, but I'm much more willing now to come over the top of LAGs and nits alike with hands as weak as K9s and QTs, but only if I will have position. A pretty decent percentage of the time, the result is a preflop fold, and, just as often, I'll get a check/fold result from the opp on a dry flop.

My positional stats seem to be sorting themselves out a bit better, too. For some unknown reason, I've struggled in the past to make much money on the button. Most of my dough was earned in the CO and the HJ seats. Lately, however, I'm making most of my money on the button, which is the way it should be. I think part of the reason here is that I've been varying my opening range as a function of the opponent type(s) sitting in the blind. I.e., I'm opening a much wider range on the button against nits, but tightening up a bit against LAGs. I'm still trying t figure out what to do against calling stations, however…

Another factor that seems to help is I'm table selecting based on both Players Per Flop and Average Pot; I want to see as big of numbers in each category as I can. I'm also much more willing to leave a table if the numbers change or the fish leave.

And speaking of leaving tables, I'm also leaving tables where I'm losing or getting sucked out on, even if the fish are leaping at the felt. Yes, I know this is irrational, but I tend to tighten up and/or get off my game when I've suffered a beat or two by a moron. It's much better for me psychologically just to leave the table and find other morons to play against. Stupid, yes, but what can I say?

Anyway, that's all the news that's fit to print. More later. Now, back to my vacation…
All-in for now….
-Bug

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