Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Poker Quiz Question #11

Q#11: You're in a $5/$10 NL full-ring cash game. Everyone has about $1200 stacks. The UTG player (tight-aggressive) raises to $50 and gets two calls from solid, tight-aggressive players. You're in the BB w/ KhKc. You re-raise to $250 and get 3 callers. The flop is Qd-8c-3h. You bet $300 on the flop. The UTG player calls and a middle position player moves all-in for $750 more. What should you do?

  1. Call all-in
  2. Fold

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A#11: You might think that calling is correct because of the pot odds you're being offered. After the MP player shoves, the pot is up to ~$1600, and it will cost you $750 to make the call. You're getting about 2.1:1 on your money. Not bad when you're holding an overpair to a fairly dry flop. You have to be right only about 33% of the time to break even.

Unfortunately, when you put the "solid tight-aggressive" MP player on a range, and then adjust it relative to his action on the flop, I think you have to put him on QQ+ and possibly 88. (I don't think semi-bluffing or bluffing is in his range here, given your show of strength, your perceived pot commitment, and the multi-way nature of the hand). Anyway, if we run this range against our cowboys in pokerstove, we see that we're way behind at something like 12% vs. 88%. The price is simply too high to continue. Ergo, fold.

All-in for now...
-Bug

1 comment:

  1. Sorry buddy, your calculations of the pot odds are wrong. Its actually 18% you have to contribute. 1000 pre flop+ your 300+ 300 first caller + 1050 all in = 2650-750
    3,5-1
    I still agree that its a fold because there is very little possibilities that we are facing other than a set.
    In which case we would have little more than 9% to win at showdown. I still think its a veery close call with these odds.
    I would like to take your analysis further and ask you this:
    If you are going to fold KK in situations like this, wouldnt that make you exploitable, since your opponent would know that bluffing you is clear +EV. I think you should.
    Don't get me wrong, in my little experience in poker, I rarely saw any bluffs in a mw pot with a raiser and a caller behind, and a third opponent that probably hasnt spoken yet.
    But the authors say that when you are only losing to an specific hand then you should call. In this case you are only losing to 88 and 33 since qq would have been 3bet for most players, not to say all.
    I would rule out any combinations of q8, q3, 83 since those hands will hardly call a raise, much less a 3bet. Plus they are all solid tag players.
    In conclusion, I say its a fold, but then you are forced to call with more marginal hands to deny equity from constantly bluffing you.

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