Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Poker Quiz Question #22

Q#22: You're in a 9-handed game with 2s-2c. You open limp in late MP. Six players see the unraised flop of Qs-Jc-2d. It is checked to you and you bet the pot. A player behind you raises, and it folds back to you. You re-raise all-in and the villain instantly calls. What does he most like hold? He's an average TAG.
  1. AQ
  2. QJ
  3. KT
  4. QQ
  5. JJ
  6. Q2
  7. J2

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A#22: To figure this out, we can assume that our villain's range is AQ, QJ, KT, QQ, JJ, Q2, and J2 only. Then we can narrow this range down by the process of elimination. We'll do this given the board texture, the villain's player type, and his actions. Then if we have a hand that's left in the multiple choice options when we're finished, we'll have ourselves a winner.

Sooooo..... you open-limped* in MP and got five other players to call. The villain in question is acting after you postflop, so we can assume he's not in the blinds. This is important, because a player in the blinds (especially the BB) is more likely to have ATC** than someone who had to pay the full call price to join the limpede***. Therefore he's in either MP or LP, and he has a playable hand. More specifically, he has a limpable hand, and not a raising hand. The villain is described as an "average TAG," so this means we can eliminate (1) AQ; (2) QQ; and (3) JJ from his range, as these are typically raising-type hands for this kind of player. We can also eliminate (6) Q2; and (7) J2, as these are not playable for an average TAG, even in a relatively large multi-way pot. This just leaves (2) QJ and (3) KT, which are both limpable from LP in a multiway pot by this type of TAG player.

On the Qs-Jc-2d flop, you raise your bottom set to full pot and get reraised by the villain. He could be doing this with either top two pair (QJ) for value, or the open-ended straight draw (KT) as a semi-bluff. When you shove all-in over the top of his RR, however, and he insta-calls, it is much more likely that he has top two than a draw. Why? Because calling has zero fold equity and he has to know that your hand is super strong. Calling your shove means he likes his hand and wants to see a showdown. Ergo, he probably has Queens-up.

Answer: (2) QJ

All-in for now...
-Bug
*Note: open-limping is generally something you want to avoid. If you're going to open a pot preflop, do so with a raise. Limping just invites in all kinds of hands into the pot that could beat you. **ATC=Any Two Cards *** "Limpede" is a poker term invented by Mr. Multi a few years back. It describes a hand in which players in MP & LP are getting better and better odds to call with weaker and weaker hands as more and more players join the fray, kind of like a snowball rolling down a hill gathering more and more snow. MM and I use this limpede term so commonly now that I occasionally blurt it around strangers as if it's common poker lingo (which it should be, but isn't).

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