Thursday, November 3, 2011

Poker Quiz Question #36

Q#36: You're in a 9-handed $5/$10 NL cash game. Everyone has about $1000. You're in EP with Ah-Ad. The UTG player limps. You raise to $50. Two players in middle position call, and the UTG player calls. The flop is Th-2d-4h. The UTG player checks. The pot is $265, and you bet $200. The first MP player (loose-passive) raises all-in for $750 more. Everyone folds to you. What should you do?
  1. Fold
  2. Call All-in

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A#36: My gut feeling (which seems to be wrong a lot lately) is to fold. You just have a pair of aces and are facing a normally passive player demonstrating a lot of strength on a dry board. This sure feels like a muck to me, but let's run through REDi and see what it says.

Read Preflop: You raised a limper from EP PF, so your perceived range is pretty strong. The MP player we care about cold-called your raise. He's loose-passive, so let's put him on a wide range, such as pairs through queens, a bunch of suited connectors and gappers, most non-premium broadways, and a smattering of unsuited bigger connectors. Maybe suited aces, too. Call it: QQ-22, AJs-A2s, KXs+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, AQo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o

Read Flop: the board is very dry, but we do have to worry a little about heart draws, possible straight draws, and flopped sets. A passive player will often try to trap with their monsters*, so we may be able to discount the sets... but he is shouting that he has strength with this RR, so let's keep sets in the range. Therefore, I think we can now basically narrow his original range down to overpairs, flush-draws, and sets. Let's call it: QQ-TT,44,22,KhQh-Kh2h.

Estimate: per Poker Stove, we're a 77:23 favorite against this range. Wow, this is surprising. Even if I pull all of the flush draws from his range and just make it over pairs and sets, we're still a favorite at 59:41. We're getting approximately $1300:$750 direct pot odds.

Decide. Only if we specifically put him on a made set are we a big dog in the hand. I don't think we can do this. With the assumption he has sets or overpairs, we're getting more than enough pot odds to call with this much equity. Ergo, this is yet another surprising result to me.

Answer: Call All-In

All-in for now...
-Bug
*Usually loose-passives slow-play monsters, and don't spring the trap until at least the turn. At least in my humble experience.

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