Raise/Folding For Value

Here's a hand I played tonight in which I missed some significant value on the river.

Merge, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
CO: $50.50 (101 bb)
Hero (BTN): $65.73 (131.5 bb)
SB: $22.53 (45.1 bb)
BB: $55.04 (110.1 bb)
UTG: $64.62 (129.2 bb)
MP: $107.14 (214.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with J♣Q♠
MP posts BB OOP, UTG folds, MP checks, CO folds, Hero raises to $2.50, 2 folds, MP calls $2

{Someone who just sits down and posts instead of waiting for the blinds to come around, especially at 6max, is usually indicative of a fish. Ergo, my raise here on the button was to isolate the bad player and get heads up with him.}

Flop: ($6) 6♣8♥K♣
(2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $4, MP calls $4

{Iso raise worked, and I flopped the second nut flush draw. In other words, I'm going to semi-bluff 100% of the time here. His flat call means he could have a flush draw, too, plus lots of pairs and A-type hands. The A♣ is definitely in his range, too.}


Turn: ($14) A♣
(2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks

{Well, the A♣ isn't in his range anymore! In fact, now I'm mostly concerned he's going to go away if I bet. Dunno if checking here is the best play or not, but it may be close either way; i.e.., it's EV neutral if I bet vs. checking behind. Dunno.}


River: ($14) 8♣
(2 players)
MP bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

{This is horrible poker on my part. Ugh. I lost track of my initial fish read on this guy. There are tons of worse hands in his range that will call a raise here. Almost any club or two pair-type hands will be hard for a fish to lay down. If he's got me beat, he's going to reraise. I woulda/coulda/shoulda raised him to something like $8 or so. This leaves me room to fold if he repops, but gets me paid off by many of his weaker made hands. This technique is called raise/folding, and it's definitely the right river play here. Instead I wimped out and just called behind because the board had paired and there was one better flush he could have had. Dumb, dumb, dumb.}

Results: $15 pot ($0.75 rake)
Final Board: 6♣8♥K♣A♣8♣

All-in for now...
-Bug