What struck me about this quiz question was the responses I saw posted on the web site. Or, more accurately, what amazed me was how the players responding to the question justified their answers. People said things like, "Raising is the standard play" and "I'd be happy just taking down the dead money" and things like that. In short, not a single person actually went about looking at this problem with Expected Value in mind.
This problem reminds me of the old poker puzzler in which you are dealt AA UTG at a full-ring table. You decide to shove. How many callers do you want? I blogged about this years ago here: http://pokerbug.blogspot.com/2009/04/everyone-is-wrong.html
This quiz question is obviously different in details, but is actually very similar in nature. You need to make some assumptions about the range of hands the opp is squeezing with, the equity you have against that range if the money goes in, and so on, but really it's just a EV calculation at heart. In other words, you should do the play that maximizes your expected value, and not anything else....
All-in for now....
-Bug
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