Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Jacks Early in a Tournament

From today's Quiz of the Day:


No surprise here; Let's look at this through the lens of REDi.

Reads: the UTG+2 player in the early stages of a semi-major online tournament raises in EP. He's not short-stacked and he has at least one "strong" player left to act after him when he makes this move (i.e., you). Ding-ding-ding. He's got a strong hand. Call it 88+ and AQ+ preflop. When you reraise him on his flop cbet on a board of 2-6-3 rainbow and he flats, we can probably throw away the AQ's from his hand and call his adjusted flop range just 88+ and AKo+.  When he donks into you on the turn Tc for a significant fraction of your stack, we have to assume he's got at least a pair, which is still 88+, though we can probably toss the 88 and 99 hands.

Estimate: Even if we keep the 88 and 99 hands in his range, our Jacks are a 62:38 dog against his range.  And if we toss the 88 and 99, we're basically drawing dead. We've got very low fold equity against this range. We're not pot committed.

Decide: we're done with this hand. Folderoo.

Note that in a cash game, we probably should have reraised preflop to isolate and get heads-up quicker than we did. In a tounament, I'm not a huge fan of the flat preflop, but it's probably OK, especially this early in the tourney. The danger of course is letting in other players and/or getting squeezed.

All-in for now...
-Bug

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