Monday, September 10, 2012

Off-Color AK on Monotone Flop

From the Quiz of the Day:

Reads: Because our image is “a little hyper” he’s re-popping us from the BB with a fairly wide range preflop here. At a bare minimum, let’s call it 22+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+. When he leads on the all-heart flop we can’t really reduce his range much if any. I.e., he’s easily doing this with his entire range.

Estimate: Against villain’s range, we’re a huge favorite at something like 66:33 or better. Per Flopzilla, he’s got a flush only 1.6% of the time and a set just 5.6% on this board. We’re crushing the rest of his range.

Decide: Our hand is pure Value at this point, so our goal is to get more money into the pot. Calling does not accomplish that goal very well; if the board four flushes on the turn and he bets, we’re done with the hand, but if it doesn’t and he was on a draw he’s not putting any more money into the middle. He might pay us off with weaker aces, but no guarantee of that either. Get the dough in now to build value and charge him to draw.

Implement: Raise enough to put him all-in. I personally like selecting exactly the amount that does that, as it seems to piss off some players who think I'm Messin' with Sasquatch. Overshoving your entire stack also can have this effect.

All-in for now...
-Bug

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