Sunday, December 16, 2012

Hand Analysis: AA facing 4bet PF Against TAg Who Can/Will Fold

Nine times out of ten (or maybe it's 99 times out of 100) you should 5bet all-in with rockets preflop. This hand, however, is the rare one percent I felt it better to simply flat and let the villain hang himself postflop.

Merge, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
SB: $9.16 (18.3 bb)
BB: $128.65 (257.3 bb)
UTG: $99.24 (198.5 bb)
Hero (MP): $49.75 (99.5 bb)
CO: $62.30 (124.6 bb)
BTN: $51.23 (102.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A of spades A of hearts
UTG raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5.25, 4 folds, UTG raises to $20

Villain is a position-aware 12/9 player with a 5.5 postflop aggression factor, a 90% cbet percentage, and a 95% PF Fv4B number. In other words, he's playing very good hands,  is very aggro on the flop, but can/will fold to a lot of pressure preflop with, I suspect, hands as strong as AQ and possibly AK and QQ. Flatting pre and getting the money in on the flop when/if he cbet seemed like a higher EV play than forcing him off the bottom of his range pre.  The only real flop that would have me concerned is a K-high board, but even then I'm getting it in, as AK is definitely in his range, and is much more likely than KK.

Hero calls $14.75
Flop: ($40.75) 3 of hearts 8 of hearts J of clubs (2 players)
UTG bets $79.24 and is all-in, Hero calls $29.75 and is all-in

As predicted, he's shoving practically any flop, and of course I snap called. The results don't matter, but suffice it to say I wasn't displeased when the villain turned over AKo and the board bricked out for him. Gotta love player stats.

All-in for now...

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