Some Miscellaneous Ramblings...

In my last post (here), I stated that one of the best ways to get better at poker is to write about it.  You might be wondering whether my own poker game has been suffering due to the lack of blog post appearing here-- well, yes and no. It's true that it's been over a month since I posted here, but I have in fact been writing and working on poker quite a bit in my spare time. I'm traveling like a fiend for work lately, but in my limited spare time in airports I've been working remotely with Le Monsieur on the ABC lessons. We're making slow-but-steady progress, and in fact I may have a announcement related to the project that I'll post here in a few days from now on the blog. Stay tuned.

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And speaking of Le Monsieur, he was in fourth overall place with a few hundred players let in the WRGPT "glaciers" event the last time we spoke, which is absolutely awesome. Mr. Multi is also still grinding up a chip stack in the event, tripling up overnight in fact when his AK held up multi-way. Wooot!

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And speaking of writing, long time readers of this blog know that I'm an Evernote evangelist. The software has really changed (mostly for the better) how I work and store information at work and at home. I've also been writing ABC lessons from within Evernote, but honestly it makes for a poor word processor. I've been a long-time Word user for any serious writing, but the formatting limitations (that they call "features") of that package has always left me wanting. Enter the program "Scrivener," which is a word-processing/publishing package that many professional fiction and non-fiction authors use. A few weeks ago, I downloaded the trial version, and after a somewhat rocky start, I bought the program and am now hooked on it as my de facto way of writing articles, books, and, yes, ABC poker lessons. Exporting to a myriad of formats after getting a document written and looking pretty is dead simple, and there are a ton of little cool features that make writing a pleasure in the software. Be warned, however, if you decide to give it ago-- the learning curve is steep.

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Saw an interesting poker fact the other day that got stuck in my brain. I even bounced it off Mr. Multi, who also found it thought provoking. I am still wrapping my head around the veracity of it, but here it is for you to ponder, too:

In Hold’em, once all five cards are on the board, the nuts will always be three queens or higher. If you’ve figured out what you think is the best possible hand and it isn’t three queens or better, then look again because you missed something.

Weird if true, eh?

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Gotta run.
All-in for now....
-Bug

Late Sunday Sundries

World Series of Poker November Nine final table starts tomorrow night. Woot! I've taped and watched all but the last installment before tomorrow's big day, so I'll need to find time to watch it before the action kicks off. Like the past few years, I will probably stay up as late as my eyelids allow, and then hit the record button to catch any late night action. Watching the shows thus far this year, I have to say the play has been very impressive. Yes, I know they edit for TV and air only the big and exciting hands, but some of the preflop action and reads have been fantastic. I'm also learning a few things about live tells that that I've been looking for on the telly. Good fun. The only (kinda) disappointing thing is the guy I previously thought I wanted to root for to win it all: Mark Newhouse. While I credit his amazing feat making back-to-back final tables, and he's clearly very skilled, the guy kind of comes off as a too-cool tool in the off-table interviews. Too bad, too, as there are only four Yanks in total to root for at the final table, and this guy is one of them. Billy Pappas and Dan Sindelar tie for my vote as to whom I want to win. But if I were a betting man--and you know that I am!--my money is on Felix Stephensen from Norway. He's second in chips and just comes off as a really solid player. Can't wait for the action to kick off manana.

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Been back in town for a few days and I'm finally settling back into "normalcy." Am even planning on playing Wednesday night in a local live tourney. Last time I played there was over five weeks ago, so I'm itching to get back on the felt and splash some pots.

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Got knocked out of the WRGPT "Glaciers" tournament in the practice round this week. Had a busted straight draw on the river and bluff shoved into two players who were calling my bets on all streets. One of these guys was Flyboy, which made my shove a high-percentage play, as he is way too solid to call off without the near nuts or better there, which I knew he didn't have given the earlier street action. Alas, the other player in the hand called with a lone pair and I was sent packing. Good thing it was all for practice. The real tourney should be heating up soon...

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Despite all the travel I've been on, Le Monsieur and I continue to make slow but steady progress on the lessons. We're transitioning to situations where you're facing preflop action from one or more villains....

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...which reminds me of a terrible, terrible, terrible call I saw on tonight's penultimate WSOP broadcast. One of the two remaining first-time amateurs at the table called off his entire stack with KQo against a preflop 4bet. He ended up facing AKs and got knocked from the tourney when there was no reason to do so. Now, don't take the wrong message from this; shoving with KQo there would have been fine and dandy, but calling off your stack when you're not short? No way. Remember, it's far, far, far better to fire the gun then dodge a bullet in poker. Fold to live another day in that situation. Even this bug knows that!

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Went pretty deep in an online 600 player tourney the other night in my hotel room on Bovada. Busted in 22nd place when my KK ran into AA preflop. Then yesterday I lost a huge stack in cash when my KK ran into another AA preflop. Then today I lost another monster stack preflop when I held the AA and my opponent setted up with his KK on a K-5-2. That's poker, but coolers suck, too.

All-in for now...
-Bug

Sunday Sundries

The annual WRGPT (a.k.a. "Glaciers") online tournament by email is warming back up, with registration underway and the practice round just a week or two away. I registered a couple days ago for this free, very fun, very educational event. If you're at all serious about poker, I strongly suggest you do the same. This will be my fifth year playing in the event, and every time I get even more excited about the tourney than the previous time. Sign up here: http://www.wrgpt.org/registration. You won't regret it!

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As part of the process of developing Le Monsieur and my ABC training app, I've been noodling around a lot with starting hands, equities, hot-and-cold numbers, etc... The goal is to not only give a newbie safe and reasonable recommendations for starting hands, but to explain the why, too... which actually turns out to be fairly difficult. It sounds simple, but doing all the math properly to determine when a hand should or shouldn't be opened from different positions is tough, and if anything, I'm now a bit more confused than when I started... Lots of books and online guides give starting hand chart recommendations (and many of these contradict each other), but the confusing part is there is basically zero analysis of "why" a hand like KTs should be opened in MP. I'm doing all manner of analysis, and probably spent five hours on it yesterday alone.

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And speaking of starting hands, I watched an Ed Miller video on $2/$5 live poker earlier this week, and his recommendation was to treat the first five seats at a nine-handed table exactly the same, and to play no more than 15% of your hands in any one of those seats. Specifically: 66+, AXs, K9s+, 76s+, J9s+, AJ+, KQ. Then in cut-off seat, open raise: K7s+, 43s+, 53s+, J8s+, A9o+, KT0+, QJo. And really open up your game on the button... Seems a little extreme, but EM is the man, so he's got me thinking...

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Been on a bit of a downswing in cash games the past few weeks. I think I'm playing fairly well, so it's just variance at work. I'm getting sucked out on left and right by incredibly bad players. The bad (good?) news is I recently cashed out a large chunk of my bankroll, so my (now) small online 'roll is, well, even smaller. Looks like I will have to drop down a few levels to build it all back up again...

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Went deep in a big-field online tourney on Bovada yesterday. Starting field was 1078 runners, and I finished in 35th place after five hours of play. Was seventh in chips when I got it all in with a fifteen out straight flush draw and over cards holding KhQh on a Jh-Th-3s board. Villain snap called holding 9s8s for the idiot end of the straight draw. I had him covered by 30% or so. Of course he turned an eight and the river bricked, leaving me one of the shorties at the table. The rest of my money went in a few hands later with AKs and I was sent packing. Sigh.

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Am enjoying the Sunday night WSOP broadcasts, even with the ever annoying Norm on the microphone. Episodes #3 and #4 were particularly fun to watch, with an obnoxious amateur getting under the skin of a professional at the table with his incessant table talk. Lesson to be learned: don't wrestle with a pig. You both will get covered in mud, but the pig will enjoy the experience.

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Non poker news: I have a marathon set of biz trips coming up, starting this week. Will be gone 18 of the next 25 days. Ugh. Posts may be even more sporadic than they have been recently.

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Other non poker news: Watched this little guy in my backyard this morning for about 30 minutes. Cats will be cats, regardless of type:

All-in for now...
-Bug

WAWB: Check-Call < Bet-Fold

Let's say you have two red Aces on a King high flop that has two clubs. You're OOP against one opponent. You bet for value and he calls. Turn is a non-club blank, you fire again, and he calls again. River brings in the club draw. You determine that, based on his actions, the villain could just as easily have a King in his hand as he does two clubs.

What do you do?

Many beginners check-call here, afraid of the flush....

...and this is a HUGE mistake. Think about it: if the villain has a King, he more than likely will just check behind, as he knows you didn't fire each street with complete air. If he hit his flush, however, he'll bet and your call is basically akin to throwing money away.

Bet-folding is a much better line for you to take. If he has a King, he probably will call and you win a nice pot. If he has a flush, he'll raise and you can get away from your hand. The net result is a higher EV play for you.

Check-calling is a useful tool when you're doing things like bluff catching. But when you're in a way-ahead/way-behind situation, bet-folding is more often the right play.

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In other poker news, I just signed up for the annual WRPGT "Glaciers" tournament-by-email event. I really enjoy this yearly MTT, and I highly encourage all-y'all to consider playing in it. Best of all, it's free to enter. Here's the sign-up link: http://www.wrgpt.org/registration

All-in for now...
-Bug

Glaciers Attack Canada, Again!

Well, it's that time of year again: the WRGPT22 poker-by-email tournament, a.k.a. "Glaciers Tournament*" is open for registration.

For the uninitiated, WRGPT is an online multi-table tournament that is played entirely by sending your bet/fold/raise/call commands in by email when it's your turn to act. A few hundred players typically enter every year in this annual tournament, with a large majority being very serious poker players, including such notables as 3-time WSOP bracelet winner Matt Matros.

The tourney is free to enter, takes months to complete, and is an absolute hoot to play. You receive an email when it's your turn to act, telling you your position, cards, and action thus far in the hand. Then you typically get ~6-8 hours or so to make your move, which is done by you sending an email with a specific command called out, back to the tournament server. A single hand can take anywhere from a  few hours to many days to complete. In other words, you have lots of time to think about each hand and situation, run EV and equity calcs, solicit advice from your friends, and think through the hand in a deep and meaningful manner if you so desire.

Like I said, this is a fun tournament and worthwhile for any serious poker player to consider entering. I've played in it for the past four years, and I fully intend to play again this year. I hope you do the same.

Registration and information for the tournament can be found here: http://www.wrgpt.org/registration/

All-in for now...
-Bug
*The term "Glaciers" comes from Mr. Multi, who once said that the speed of the game was akin to that of a glacier attacking Canada.

Melted Glaciers

Well, my tournament life in the WRGPT "glaciers" poker-by-email tournament has come to a crashing, ignominious end. I've been nursing a small stack for the last couple of months, waiting for an opportunity to chip up. Alas, I've had (a) some big stack bullies running over the table; and (b) zero playable cards or get-it-in opportunities arise for a while. On Wednesday, however, I finally picked up a playable hand in middle/late position. Here's what happened:

Blinds were T600/T1200 with T200 antes. I had T22K, so my M was getting pretty low. I picked up K♦-T♦ in mid/late position. Most everyone at the table had me well covered. I considered just open shoving, but I went with a 3.5x raise instead. In hindsight, I think this was a mistake; I should have just shoved then and there, and taken down the blinds and antes. C'est la vie.

Anyway, I got cold-called by a big-stack bully to my left, and then also by the two blinds. All three players had me well covered by at least a factor of two. The blinds had both been playing fit-or-fold poker. The one player who was to my left was relatively new to the table, so I didn't have any good reads on him. He had me covered by a factor of six.

Flop hit me pretty strongly and was also fairly dry: 6♦-8♠-8♦. While I didn't flop a made hand, I did have two overs and the second nut flush draw. The paired board did give me some pause, but from a combinatorics point of view it was very unlikely one of my opponents held an eight. I was concerned about someone holding a six, but even if that was true I had reasonably good equity.

The two blinds checked and the action was to me. At this point, I went into full REDi mode, including a review of the situation with Mr. Mulit. Here's what I was thinking:

Reads:
The other three players like to see flops. The big blind is playing fit-or-fold, the other two are playing big stack bullies. Can’t really put any of them on big pairs, as they probably are the types to repop pre. I’m therefore thinking small or middle pairs, overcards, or maybe some SCs.

Estimate:
Hand Equity: per ‘stove, I’m a 37:21:21:21 favorite against all three if I assign them each the above range.
Fold Equity: FE is reasonable against the two guys who have ~2-3x my stack size, very little against the big stack on my left, who has me covered 6x.
Commitment: My M is five if I fold here; getting desperate.

Decide:
 I’m not 100% pot committed, but with my M this low, I have to make a play soon. If I double up here, I’m back in the game. If I decide to check/fold, I’m still semi-alive, but my M is so low that I need to play another hand soon. I've got lots of outs, therefore I think my best line here is semi-bluff.

Implement:
With an M this low, the only viable way to semi-bluff is to Jam (and pray).

So I shove... and get insta-called by the knucklehead to my left, who turns over 5♠-6♥. Seriously. Both blinds fold.

Turn is J♦. River is 8♣.

I hit my flush, but the villain wins with the ugly rivered full house.

The good news is that REDi  led me to the right decision. The bad news is that the cards didn't cooperate...

Oh well, I'll just hurry up and sign up for the next Glaciers tourney..... in October. Sigh.

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In other poker news, if you haven't already watched Daniel Negreanu's latest vlog, I encourage you to do so. Specifically, the fun starts around 5:56 into the video, when Daniel goes off (again) on the pond scum otherwise known as Howard "the Professor" Lederer, Ray Bitar, and Chris "Jesus" Ferguson. Watch the youtube video by clicking HERE.

All-in for now...
-Bug