"A-ha!" moment of the week...

The guest on the Thinking Poker podcast this past week was Andrew "BalugaWhale" Seidman, who is the author of the very good Easy Game series of poker books (click here to see the latest edition of the book). During the discussion, Seidman made a comment that caused me to literally stop walking (and therefore get bumped into by a guy who was walking too closely behind me at the Reagan International airport in Washington D.C. on Friday).  I didn't write down his exact words, but here's the essence of what Seidman said:

We always hear that value betting should be where you make the bulk of your money at poker. Bluffing is definitely part of your earn, but value should be the lions share. Why is this? Partly because fish tend to call more than they fold... but there's a deeper mathematical reason. When you make, say, a pot-size bet as a bluff (e.g., with pure air) on the river, the most you're going to win is what's currently in the pot. But when you make a pot-sized value bet on the river (e.g., with the nuts), you're going to win at least as much as what is currently in the pot. If your opponent comes back at you, you're going to win that additional money, too. Bluffing profit is capped at the current pot size. Value profit is capped by the effective stack size.

A-ha!

All-in for now...
-Bug

Bug's Poker Tip #42

Value Bet the River

Something many new players do wrong is check back their value hands on the river. I'm not entirely sure why they do this, but it probably has to do with an irrational fear that they are re-opening the betting and might get pushed off the pot by the shove of a villain holding a worse hand. These newbies are content to see a showdown and win the pot at its current size. They don't seem to care about the extra value that a river bet provides. Don't be one of these people!

The simple truth is that at mid-stakes and below, most villains do their bluffing on the flop and turn. River bets tend to be real; if a standard villain makes a big bet or shove on the river, he usually has the goods. Or at least thinks he does. What this means is that his bet will give you a near perfect read-- i.e., if villain re-raises you, you're probably toast and need to fold. If he doesn't, then the extra bet means extra profit. This is the essence of so-called thin-value "bet-folding" the river, and it's a bread-and-butter play for professional poker players.

The key here of course is having the ability to fold when re-raised.

Let's repeat that for clarity: thin-value bet the river as much as you can, but only if you are capable of folding when anyone less than a bluffing maniac re-raises you.

Said simply, you have to learn not to be afraid of betting thinly on the river for value--and also have the discipline to fold to a re-raise. Many amateur players struggle with this idea because they just want to see the cards turned up. They say things like, "the pot is big enough." By doing so, they are also saying that they are scared of being bluffed off what could be the winning hand.

If you can come to terms with the fact that people bluff very rarely on the river, then you will start to see your overall game improve drastically-- and your profits go up accordingly.

All-in for now...

-Bug

Bug's Poker Tip #38

Bet only for value or to bluff.

There only two primary* reasons that should cause you to bet in poker.

The first is for Value. This is when you believe your hand is best. When you're betting for value, you want a villain holding a worse hand than yours to call. You want to bet the largest amount you can that will get called by the villain**.

The second reason is as a Bluff. This is when you believe your hand is worst. When you're betting for value, you want a villain holding a better hand than yours to fold. You want to bet (i.e., risk) the smallest amount than you can that will result in the villain folding**.

That's it; two reasons only. For example, you should never bet for information. You should not bet to probe or to "find out where you are in a hand." True, these are often beneficial consequences of betting, but they should never be the reason you're betting in the first place. 

We bet only for Value or to Bluff in poker. Period.

All-in for now...

-Bug

*Actually, there are occasional secondary reasons to bet in poker, such as for isolation or blocking, but these are relatively rare occasions. Value and Bluffing should make up 95% or more of your betting (and raising).
**Technically speaking, this isn't quite accurate. You actually want to bet the amount that maximizes your expected value in a particular situation. But thinking in terms of betting the largest amount that will get called by villain (when betting for value), or betting the smallest amount that will get a fold (when bluffing) is usually pretty close to the ideal.

Easy Game

I'm currently in Spain on the first leg of a hellish two week long biz trip that will literally take me from one side of the globe to the other, with twelve-hour time zone changes. To ease the pain a tiny bit, I brought a copy of Easy Game (third edition) by Andrew "Baluga Whale" Seidman with me on my Kindle to read in jet-lagged stupor.  [Click here to see the book on Amazon]

I had previously skimmed copies of the first two editions of the book Seidman wrote back in 2009 and 2011, but picked up this one after reading a bunch of reviews that said he'd rewritten and re-thought many of the major sections of the book. This rewrite was done after he (in)famously had a big meltdown in the high stakes games, going on a few hundred thousand dollar downswing, retiring from poker, and then coming back to it and winning again. He recognized that the game had gotten a lot tougher in recent years, and in fact strategies that had once worked profitably were no longer valid.

Anyway, I've read just the couple first chapters, and I have to say this is indeed an excellent book. Very detailed and very no-nonsense in nature. Also, he explains the "why's" as much as he does the "what's," which I always appreciate in a good strategy book.

The first chapter is a good example of this, with Seidman describing why we bet in poker. He echoes what I've preached herein this blog for years; i.e., there are only two valid reasons for betting in poker: Value or Bluff. We do not bet for information, nor do we bet for protection. Those are indeed often secondary and beneficial consequences of betting, but they should not be the reason that you're betting.

Seidman also repeats another thing that I've stated repeatedly here: at the micro- and low-stakes games, we should be primarily making our money by value betting, not bluffing. He argues that the reason for this is that humans are naturally curious people, and want to see if they've won at a showdown, even when they think they might be beat. Ergo, you should press the accelerator betting pedal whenever you think you're ahead (i.e., for Value). Bluffing should be minimal, and only against good, thinking players who are capable of letting go of better hands. (Bluffing however becomes much more important at the mid- and high-stakes tables, where your opponents are less likely to make calling mistakes and/or stack-of with a second-best hand).

Now back to being jet-lagged. Sigh.

All-in for now…

-Bug

Bug's Poker Tip #6

Bluffing is Over-Rated

At the micro- and low-stakes games, the vast majority of your profit is going to come from value betting your Value hands. It is not going to come from Bluffs. This is because many of the players you face at these tables are a) not putting you on a hand range at all; or b) are doing so very poorly. Said another way: You can't profitably bluff bad players. So don't even try. Stick to the concept of making your money by getting worse hands to call, not trying to get better hands to fold.

All-in for now...

-Bug

Bug's Poker Tip #1

People bluff a lot less often than you think.

Sure, there are players who think bluffing is what poker is all about. So what? They're the minority, especially at the micros. If a player is trying to tell you that their hand is strong, listen to them. Seriously. Look at board texture and re-create the hand in your head. Does his bet say that he has it? If so, fold. Poker really isn't as difficult as we sometimes make it out to be. The Guru once remarked to me that, "This ain't rocket science." And you know what? He's right. Fold.

All-in for now...

-Bug

Deception: Zigging When They Zag

"Keep your eye clear, and hit 'em where they ain't." - Willie Keeler

To win consistently at poker, you have to stay one step ahead of your opponents. In terms of thought levels, you need to be operating one level above them. For instance, when you rise high enough in stakes at hold'em, your opponents are almost all playing a solid Level-2 game. They're REDi'ing against you. They're putting you on hand ranges, and they're adjusting accordingly. This means that you need to be at Level-3. You have to put them on the hand range they're putting you on. Said another way, you have to learn to deceive them.

There are few things more fun in poker than stealing a pot with a naked bluff. When that happens, you realize that your own cards no longer matter. You've gotten inside your opponent's head. You understand what he thinks you have in your hand, and you are able to take advantage of that fact. You are now playing the player, and bluffing (and bluff catching) becomes a bigger part of your game.

Sometimes, however, you get caught bluffing. We all do.... and it's okay. In fact, the great players use it to their advantage. They don't see getting caught as a failure; they see it as an opportunity.

As soon as you get caught holding air, your table images transforms to one of a loose and tricky player. People now see you you as full of it--and they'll begin to call you down lighter. They begin to put you on wider ranges that include more weak hands and air. They think of you as a tricky player. They think of you as a bluffer. So they call more.

So use this.

Deceive them. Use your image to your advantage. Tighten up. Play fewer weak hands. Switch to playing only premium hands-- and when you do, push those hands very hard. Your opponents will call you because they think of you as a bluffer. And then they will lose, because you're now not bluffing.

Eventually their image of you will begin to change. They see you turning over only good hands. They see you winning. They will either start to think of you as being on a hot streak, or, more likely, think of you again as a TAg. They might think that you're someone who got caught bluffing earlier and is now over compensating by playing super tight.

So use this.

Deceive them. Use their new image of you as an opportunity to change it up again. Begin bluffing more.

Deception is all about zigging when your opponents think you're zagging. It's about getting them leaning one way, while you're actually going the other. And believe me: your opponents are always leaning one way or another; everyone has an underlying opinion or image of everyone else at the table, including you. The trick is staying one step ahead of that image. If they think you're on a zig, you need to be on a zag. Let 'em try to hit you where you ain't.

All-in for now...
-Bug