My buddy, “Hero” played a turbo with me today. With six players left, he was the chip leader. He then died an ignoble death in fifth place. Why? Partly bad luck, for sure, but the pivotal hand was his last, where I think he made a crucial mistake in how much he bet. Here’s what happened:
Seat 1: bugeyebug (3,220)
Seat 3: HERO (2,915)
Seat 4: Mr Arn (2,990)
Seat 5: blobicus (1,060)
Seat 7: nashmy (3,315)
Mr Arn posts the small blind of 200
blobicus posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [8c Js]
nashmy folds
bugeyebug folds
HERO raises to 900
Mr Arn calls 700
blobicus folds
*** FLOP *** [6s 4h 9s]
Mr Arn checks
HERO bets 1,000
Mr Arn calls 1,000
*** TURN *** [6s 4h 9s] [Jc]
Mr Arn bets 1,090, and is all in
HERO has 15 seconds left to act
HERO calls 1,015, and is all in
Mr Arn shows [Th Jh]
HERO shows [8c Js]
Uncalled bet of 75 returned to Mr Arn
*** RIVER *** [6s 4h 9s Jc] [Kh]
Mr Arn shows a pair of Jacks
HERO shows a pair of Jacks
Mr Arn wins the pot (6,230) with a pair of Jacks
HERO stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 6,230 | Rake 0
Board: [6s 4h 9s Jc Kh]
Seat 1: bugeyebug didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: HERO (button) showed [8c Js] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 4: Mr Arn (small blind) showed [Th Jh] and won (6,230) with a pair of Jacks
Seat 5: blobicus (big blind) folded before the Flop
Hero is a good player (he pointed out to me during the game that I should employ a stop-and-go play at one point, which worked perfectly), so I’m not sure what happened. His blind steal attempt resulted in the SB, Mr Arn, calling. Now, Mr Arn was a relatively tight player, so we need to be able to put him on some kind of playable hand to make that call. Mr Arn, however, checked the flop, so unless he had a monster and was slow playing, we could then put him on two overcards or maybe a small pair (a medium ace was not likely, given how tight Mr Arn was).
Post-flop, HERO makes the (I believe, correct) decision to continuation bet the flop, but the problem lies not in whether to bet, but rather in how much to bet. $1000 is simply too small if you’re trying to steal the pot of $2200. HERO was giving Mr Arn odds of better than 3:1 to make that call. Any two overcards or small pair are probably worth the call with those odds and the fact that the blinds were getting huge. More importantly, Mr Arn was probably feeling some pot commitment issues at that point.
If HERO had pushed all-in on the flop, however, he would have been giving the opp 2:1, which likely would have resulted in a fold. Just like yesterday’s post, the opp today did exactly what he was supposed to in response to HERO’s bet. All was then lost, when both players hit the Jack on the turn. If that ugly card hadn't hit, HERO could have either gotten off the hand or, more likely, bet into the turn and taken it down. (That J was just bad luck.)
Anyway, the lesson is: Determining how much to bet in NL hold'em is at least as important as whether one should have bet in the first place. Size matters.
24-hour Change in Bankroll: +3.2%.
All-in for now…
-Bug
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