Operation Hindenburg - Phase 1 Debrief

Woo hoo!! After just posting a few hours ago that I couldn't get past the $200 mark, I sat down and played 150 quick hands of $5NL.... and busted through the glass ceiling! Woo hoo! In other words, the first phase of Operation Hindenburg has come to a close. I played 11.5K hands of $5NL 6max (with a few hundred hands of $10NL thrown in the early days of the month). I played 21 days this month and averaged just under 8PTBB/100 hands for a total profit of $106, which slightly more than doubled up my initial $100 bankroll that I transferred over from 'Tilt to 'Stars.

My numbers were pretty solid during the entire run, and felt like I only tilted and/or played poorly a handful to times. My overall VPIP and PFR were 19.6% and 13%, respectively. Delving a little deeper into the positional stats showed an average PFR/VPIP ratio in non-blind positions to be around 80%, which I believe is fairly solid. I also clearly played positional poker, with a VPIP that ranged from 9% UTG to 27% on the button.

My Won $ at SD stat was also pretty respectable at an average of 59%. That said, I'm a little concerned about what's happening in the cut-off seat, which is where I posted a smaller profit than in the two earlier seats. My W$SD number in that seat is fairly low, so maybe I just ran bad there. Dunno. I need to look into this a little closer to see what, if anything, I can divine. At least I'm starting to win more on the button, like I'm supposed to be doing...

Going back to the previous post from a few hours ago, one of the things that strikes me looking at the profit per # of hands graph is the relatively large number of hands that can be played with essentially zero increase in bankroll. In two parts of the graph, I went well over 2000 consecutive hands without making any money. Amazing. The moral of the story, I suppose, is that you have just keeping playing your A-game, even if you're breaking even (or losing). Poker is a game played in units of weeks or months, not days, so you have to just keep your eye on the long-ball and keep marching forward if you want to make money. I showed you the last dry session I experienced when I was nearing the $100 mark; here was one from early in the month:
Note that the win rate during this part of the graph is still over 8PTBB/100, but most of the profit occurs at the leading and trailing edge of this data group. During this entire period I played pretty good poker, with only a few hands that were seriously misplayed. So, to repeat, the lesson to be learned here is to have the discipline to stay the course. When (not if) you experience prolonged periods without making any money, just keep plugging away. The variance of the game is, frankly, brutal. It can demoralize even the most disciplined player. I mean, come on: 2000 hands played of near perfect poker, but with zero profit to show for it!?

Oh, and speaking of variance, the up-and-down swings were pretty brutal, too. One and two buy-in drops were commonplace; swings of three buy-ins were rarer, but still prevalent throughout the month. Again, you have to have a strong stomach to play this game.

Another thing to note is I usually played 4 tables at once, but I also played 6, 8, and even 10 at a time if the games were soft and I was feeling particularly good. Looking through all the PT3 data, it seems that there is little, if any correlation between number of tables played and win rate. The main difference is the style of poker I would play as a function of number of tables open. When I had only four or six games open, I could really "play the playa." I was able to put players on ranges, adjust my starting hands accordingly, and then (often) outplay the opp post-flop. I could even get tricky, with check-raises, bluff 3-betting, and even checking with a monster on the river to induce bluffs. If I had more than six tables open, however, all this went out the window and I would just revert back to simple ABC position poker, c-bet a lot, fold to steals, and basically play my two cards, the board, and the opp's vpip and pfr numbers. Doing either the former or the latter resulted in in the same $/hour rate, regardless of number of tables open. In other words, it's possible to make a decent profit either playing few tables or many... as long as you adjust your style accordingly.

All in all, I feel pretty good about the results of Phase 1. Averaging 8PTBB/100 aint' too shabby, even if I do say so myself. Now, it's time to see if I can keep up a positive slope to the graph when I play $10NL 6max for Phase 2. My plan is to stay at the new level until I hit 20 buy-ins for the next level, which would be 20 x $25 = $500. I also intend to drop back down to $5NL if (when?) I drop down to 15xBI's, or $150. The biggest downward swing I had in Phase 1 was 3.5 BI's. By allowing myself 5BIs at the higher limit, I (hopefully) allow myself to stay playing at $10NL and not have to drop down repeatedly. We'll see.... and I'll keep you posted.

All-in for now...
-Bug