A fundamental concept of cash game poker is understanding that it is irrelevant if you win or lose a particular hand. What matters most is whether you got your money in with the best of it or not. Said another way, when reviewing your play, you have to ask whether you played the hand correctly or not. If you did, then you did your job. Long term, the vagaries of randomness will even out and you'll post a net profit. If you didn't, however, the long term result will be a red bottom line.
Here's the perfect example of that concept from yesterday's 100-hand Omaha session:
Full Tilt Pot-Limit Omaha, $0.10 BB (6 handed)
Button ($7.89) SB ($9.30) BB ($14.70) UTG ($5.68) MP ($16.39) Hero (CO) ($12.82)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 8♦, A♦, J♠, A♠ 1 fold, MP bets $0.35, Hero raises to $1.20, 1 fold, SB calls $1.15, 1 fold, MP calls $0.85
Flop: ($3.70) 4♣, 9♣, A♥ (3 players) SB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $2.65, SB raises to $8.10 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero calls $5.45
Turn: ($19.90) J♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: ($19.90) 7♣ (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $19.90 | Rake: $1.32
Results: SB had 2♣, 7♥, 7♦, A♣ (flush, Ace high). Hero had 8♦, A♦, J♠, A♠ (three of a kind, Aces).
Outcome: SB won $18.58
So, did I play the hand right? Per twodimes.net Omaha calculator (http://twodimes.net):
pokenum -o ad as js 8d - ac 7h 7d 2c -- 4c 9c ahThe numbers don't lie; I was a big favorite to win the hand, as I was nearly a 70:30 favorite. If I get in this same situation a hundred times in a row, I will make a lot of money. Said another way, I did my job. So I should be happy, right?
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 9c 4c Ah
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Js Ad 8d 563 68.66 257 31.34 0 0.00 0.687
Ac 2c 7d 7h 257 31.34 563 68.66 0 0.00 0.313
Right.
All-in for now...
-Bug
Is it reasonable for the SB to go all-in for a nut flush draw in Omaha? He won that only because he hit on the River.
ReplyDeleteHi Ted,
ReplyDeleteThat's actually a hard question to answer. Strictly speaking from a mathematical point of view, he was very far behind when he shoved on the flop (he was a 70:30 dog to my top set) and therefore was incorrect to shove.... BUT, if you include the fold equity he had by shoving, I think it evens things out a little. I still think he was wrong to shove, but it's not a horrible as the 70:30 numbers would suggest. I think.