Sounds obvious, doesn't it? Well, yes and no. It's easy for beginners to understand this, but it's equally easy for them not to actually use this to their own advantage. In other words, to win at poker, you have to make a decision early in the hand which of these two means of winning you're trying to employ and then optimize that course of action. You actually have to decide. Good poker players call this taking a line.
Now, your line can change as a hand progresses. For instance, you can start out on a bluff line, pick up a big draw, and now your line has become a semi-bluff. If you hit on the turn, your line is now one of showdown. If you don't hit, you stay on your existing bluff line, or maybe shift to a fold line.
In any case, when picking a line, the internal dialog often goes like this:
Showdown Line: "Does the villain have a better hand than me? Probably not. Ergo, I want him to stay in the hand to a showdown, but I don't want to give him free cards along the way. What's the most I can bet to build a pot, but still keep him coming along?"
Or: Bluffing Line: "Does the villain have a better hand then me? Yes? Well, can I get him to fold? Probably. Therefore my line in this hand is a bluff. I need to market my hand as if it were a monster. What is the board? What actions have I taken thus far? What hand can I represent, and how do I sell it, while risking the least I can to make this all happen?"
So, Question: what is the common thread in these two different lines?
Answer: "Does the villain have a better hand than me?"
Said another way, you can't start taking well-reasoned and well-executed lines in poker (and therefore make consistent money) unless you start making reads on your opponent. You have to put the villain on a range of hands. You can't decide where you stand--and therefore know what to do--unless and until you make a conscious determination of how strong the opp is. In other words, you have to progress from a Level-1 player to a Level-2 player to be profitable.
As a reminder, Level-1 Poker is when you're focused primarily on your own cards, and whether you hit the flop or not. When playing L1, reads on your opponent are essentially non-existent. You're not asking whether the board hit the villain. You're in your own little cocoon, looking at just your own two little cards, in your own little world, playing fit-or-fold poker. You're trying to win each hand by just hoping to hit, and then hoping that your hand stays the best when you get to the showdown. You're not making reads on your opponent, so by the time you get to showdown with your pocket rockets on a 9h-7h-5d-Ad-8d board you're often surprised when the villain rakes the pot and your top set goes down in flames.
In contrast, Level 2 Poker is when you consciously are making reads on your opponent, and actively putting him or her on a range of hands. If you want to make money at poker, you have to play L2 poker. There is simply no getting around it.
So how does one begin transitioning from L1 to L2 Poker? Well, there are a number of ways, but I've found that a relatively painless method to start this process is by concentrating on board texture. Here's how it works:
You have A-A and raise in EP and get called by a standard player in the big blind. Effective stacks are deep, with each of you having over 150 big blinds. The flop comes 9h-7h-5d with two hearts and a diamond, and the villain checks. Now, before you fire that automatic c-bet, you need to ask yourself three simple questions.
First, you need to ask, "what are the nuts, near nuts, and draw to nuts on the current board?" In this example, the nuts would be if someone held a 6-8. The near nuts would be a set of nines, sevens, or fives. Draws to the nuts on this board would be suited connectors and gappers like J-T, 9-8, T-8, or 7-6 type hands, as well as other suited cards, especially aces.
The second question you need to ask is, "how likely is it that the villain has the nuts, near nuts, or a draw to the nuts?" In this example, the 6-8 is pretty unlikely, as we said the player was a standard villain, and most people don't call EP raises with smallish one-gappers like this. On the other hand, however, most players do call raises IP with small and middle pairs, bigger suited aces, and suited connectors. In other words, the villain has exactly the type of hand that hits this board pretty hard as a draw.
Now, the third question you need to ask is, "how do my cards measure up against the villain's range?" In this case, the hero's pocket aces are still probably best, but also somewhat vulnerable, so our hero should bet to protect them (e.g., to keep the villain from hitting a straight if he's holding connectors). The line we're taking is one of cautious value. You probably have the best hand, so you want to bet an amount that keeps the villain in the hand, while charging him the wrong price to continue to draw. So when checked to, you pick an amount of 65% of the pot and you fire away. The villain calls.
The turn brings a diamond Ace, giving you a nice big fat set. For most beginners, sadly, this when they go blind. A SET!, they think. Woo hoo! I've got 'em now! What this means is that even if the player has consciously tried to "read" the opponent's range on the flop, they tend to revert back to L1 poker once their own hand improves. Unfortunately, this is the point in the hand when reevaluating and tightening up the opponent's range is even more important. What you need to do is go back to the three questions: "what are the nuts, near nuts, and draw to nuts on the current board?" followed by "how likely is it that the villain has the nuts, near nuts, or a draw to the nuts?" followed by "how do my cards measure up against the villain's range?"
The first question is relatively easy to answer. In this example, the nuts are still 6-8. The second nuts is the Hero's own hand, followed by the other sets. The draw to the nuts have actually gotten slightly more probable with the addition of the second flush draw.
The answer to the second question hasn't really changed much, either. The villains range is still lower sets and suited connectors.
The third answer has, however, changed slightly. The answer is that they hero's hand is now the nuts, but it's also still vulnerable.So the hero's line is still one of cautious value, and again he bets 65% of the pot when checked to. The villain calls again.
Now, the river is an ugly 8 of diamonds, filling in straight draws, plus the backdoor flush draw.
The villain leads out with an all-in shove. What do you do?
The answer is not to call, but nor is it to fold. The answer is to go back to the three questions: "what are the nuts and near nuts on the current board?" followed by "how likely is it that the villain has the nuts, the near nuts, or a busted draw to the nuts?" followed by "how do my cards measure up?"
In this case, the answer to Q1 is: the nuts are KXd, followed by all the other diamond suited hands. The near nuts include JT, plus any hand that has a six in it.
The answer to Q2 is: very likely.
The answer to Q3 is: poorly.
So we fold our set of aces, and move on to the next hand-- without any regret.
Welcome to Level 2 Poker, friends, the land of actually laying down made hands. Of course there is a lot more to hand reading and L2 play than just these three simple questions, but I believe starting out this way can get you solidly on the path to lower variance and a bigger bankroll. The name of the game is maximizing profit, while minimizing loss. The first part is easy, even for L1 players. The second part is very, very hard for L1 players... and easy for L2 players.
All-in for now....
-Bug
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