Monday, September 5, 2011

Level-1 Reverse Implied Odds, or: Ugh.

Okay, here's another lesson in how not to play a hand of poker. Let's go through my mistakes, one painful step at a time...

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em ManagerConverter Tool fromFlopTurnRiver.com UTG ($116.97) MP ($50) CO ($45.78) Button ($58.37) SB ($53.10) Hero (BB) ($63.64)


{First mistake is playing when tired. I played this hand last night after a long, tiring day. Said another way: I was playing for the wrong reason. Instead of sitting down to play Perfect Poker, I was using the table time as means of blowing off steam. Ugh.}


Preflop: Hero is BB with Q♣, 3♣ 
 UTG bets $1.50
, MP calls $1.50, CO calls $1.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $1


{Second big mistake is made here with the cold call.  Level-1 thinking is what I was doing: "Hey, I'm getting 5.25:1 on my money with a hand that could make a flush. Let's call!" Yuck. QXs is a classic RIO hand, and I was going to be OOP multi-way if I made this call. At $50NL the players are mostly pretty good; I'm probably not going to get paid off by worse flushes, but better hands will definitely keep coming along. A quote I read recently about playing out of the blinds when getting good pot odds was, "yes, you're getting a great price, but look at what you've bought. Something you didn't really want in the first place-- a weak hand OOP."}

{The next big thing I did wrong here was not even try to put my opponents on hand ranges. R is for Reading, anyone? UTG raises 3xbb, so what does he have? Answer: strong hand. MP calls, so what does he have? His stats are 14/12, so he's probably got a small or medium pocket pair. CO cold calls, so what does he have? He's getting good odds, so it could be anything from small and medium pocket pairs to strong-ish suited connectors.}

{Next mistake is I is for Ignoring the E is for Estimating step. My hand stacks up horribly against the ranges I just assigned. FOLD, FOLD, FOLD!}


Flop:($6.25) 6♣, A♣, 5♠ (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks,MP bets $41 fold, Hero calls $4, 1 fold

{I'm turning my hand face up to anyone paying attention. Look everyone! I've got middling SDV hand or a draw. Come take advantage of me! Ugh.}

Turn: ($14.25) Q♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $8.50, Hero calls $8.50

{The best action here on the turn is to just fold. You are rarely if ever getting the right odds in NL cash to chase a draw past the turn if your opponent is betting correctly and is thinking on L2. I missed, so it's time to give up. Short of folding, the next best option is to raise as a semi-bluff; not great, but better than what I did, which is calling. UGH!}

River: ($31.25) Q♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $36 (All-In), Hero calls $36
Total pot: 
$103.25


{WTF was I thinking making this call? Oh, that's right. I remember now: "OOOH! I've hit trips!" Like I said earlier, at $50NL the players aren't going to make many betting mistakes. The villain here saw the board pair and was still putting money into the pot FOR VALUE. At the 1.8:1 price I was being offered, I have to be right at least 35% of the time to just break even calling this shove. My trips are probably good here only something like 10% of the time against a solid 14/12 reg. Horrible, horrible call. UGHGHG!}


All-in for now...
-Bug

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