Special Bug Pages

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Bood News, Gad News, take 2

Mister Multi asked me to take a look back and show how I actually would apply RED-I in practice to the two Bood News, Gad News hands I posted a week ago. While I can't recall my exact thinking during these two specific hands, the following is what (on a good day when I'm playing my A-game) I typically have rattling around in my brain:

Hand #1
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($115.41)
Hero (SB) ($50.25)
BB ($15)
UTG ($50)
Preflop: Hero is SB with Q♠, Q♦
UTG bets $1, 1 fold, Hero raises $2.62, 1 fold, UTG calls $1.87
Flop: ($6.24) 6♥, 5♠, J♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $4.16, UTG raises $12, Hero calls $7.84
Turn: ($30.24) K♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $30.24, UTG raises $35.13 (All-In), Hero calls $4.89
River: ($100.50) 10♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $100.50

Preflop:
Read: UTG min raises. At these stakes, this is almost never a hand like AA-JJ, which are usually brought in for a 3-3.5x raise or are limped in EP. I've sometimes seen players do this min-raise with AK and AQ, but more often than not it is indicative of small and medium pairs. I don't know what they're trying to achieve with this min bet size, but for whatever reason some players do it. Call it 22 through TT.
Estimate: I'm far ahead of his range here with QQ, with excellent equity. I'm not committed yet, and won't necessarily be even if I get RR'd PF.
Decide: Value line.
Implement: I go with a pot-size raise, as I think he's going to come along with his one pairs and I need to punish him the max I can get away with. Note that when I re-popped him and he just called, it re-solidified my small and medium pair read.
Flop:
Read: I've got an overpair to the board, which itself is a little wettish with straight and flush draws. I don't have him on this type of hand, however, so effectively nothing has changed with my situation read.
Estimate: The only hands I'm really afraid of here are 55 and 66, which, unfortunately, are solidly in his range. But so are 22-44 and 77-TT. That's two  pocket pairs out of nine, ergo I'm still far ahead of his overall range.
Decide: I'm still on a Value line.
Implement: The bet of 2/3's pot here is pretty standard, but in hindsight I think it should have be a little larger to keep the 77-TT from getting the odds to peel a turn set. Maybe 3/4 pot would have been better.
ReRead: After he reraises my c-bet, I should have stopped to look at his numbers to see what his aggression stats where, and to see how often he 3bets the flop (if I had enough hands on him). This would be my normal MO, but in this case I didn't do it. Instead, I "felt" he was trying to muscle me off an overpair or thought that he thought I was just c-betting an AK-type hand.
ReEstimate: If I had looked at his stats and saw that he was a "normal" player, I'd have to discount bluffs here in his range. In other words, instead of 2 out of 9 possible pairs beating me, I think it's more than likely he hit his set. Some types of players will wait for the turn to make their move with a monster, but most good players will just start building a pot here on the flop. Given this, I should have recognized I was now probably behind. I was getting ~3:1, which means I have to have the best hand 25% of the time to continue. In hindsight, I should have realized I was less than this.
The rest of the hand involved me abandoning RED-I just getting stubborn and/or stupid. Shoving the K on the turn was a stupid attempt at bluffing him off of God knows what.
Moral: RED-I works.... but only if I actually use it all the way through a hand. Grrrrr.

Hand #2
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($100.50)
BB ($100)
UTG ($334.51)
MP ($98.50)
CO ($102.91)
Hero (Button) ($116.43)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 2♠, 2♦
UTG bets $3, 1 fold, CO calls $3, Hero calls $3, 2 folds
Flop: ($10.50) 6♦, 2♣, 8♣ (3 players)
UTG bets $7, CO calls $7, Hero raises $25.75, UTG raises $324.51 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero calls $87.68 (All-In)
Turn: ($244.36) 6♣ (2 players, 2 all-in)
River: ($244.36) Q♦ (2 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: $244.36

Preflop:
Read: UTG opens with 3x, so I'm putting him on hands like 55-AA, AJs+, AQo+, KQs, and maybe the rest of the baby pairs. CO is cold calling, so he probably has 22-TT, plus some random face cards and a raft of suited connectors.
Estimate: We're at least 100bb deep, so I'm getting relatively large implied odds of 33:1 or more.
Decide: You're more likely to get paid off set-mining against an EP raiser than an LP opener, as their range is stronger. This situation is even better, as I've got two villains in the hand, including the UTG dude. Ergo, a set-mining draw line is +EV. It would be great if I can also get the blinds to come along. The only real worry is if someone in the blinds squeeze.
Implement: Raising my draw here does nothing but opens the hand back up and/or bloats the pot. Ergo: just Call
Flop:
Read: UTG c-bets into a two-tone, small card flop, which means I can't really change or narrow my read on him. The cold-call of the CO is a little scarier, as he could have a bigger set than mine. More likely, however he has an over pair or flush draw.
Estimate: I hit my set, which more than likely is the nuts right now.
Decide: With the near nuts it's clearly time to visit Value Town.
Implement: I want to bet relatively big here as I'm vulnerable to a flush draw or over-setting. Pot-size is fine.
ReRead: UTG comes over the top on me. I'm only worried about an overset, which is still in his range. His range also includes big flush draws, too, however, and overpairs like QQ-AA.
ReEstimate: I'm still a favorite to win against most of the opp's range. I'm getting almost 2:1 on my money, so I have to be good 33% of the time, which is more than likely.
ReDecide: I'm still in the city limits of Value Town.
ReImplement: Call.
Moral: RED-I works.... if I use it.

All-in for now...
-Bug

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