Poker Quiz Question #27

Q#27: You're in a $5/$10 NL cash game with $1000 stacks. Nine handed. A tight-aggressive player limps UTG, and another limps in MP. It's then folded to the SB, who completes. You are in the big blind and check. Your image is tight-aggressive. You hold 2h-4c. The flop comes 2s-4h-7d. You lead for $35, the UTG limper folds, and the MP limper raises to $120. (He's a little too tight and little bit passive. He doesn't like to get himself into many marginal situations.) Small blinds fold. If you only have two choices, which is a better option:

1. Fold
2. Raise All-in

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A#27:  Read: There are three other players in this hand, but it's really just the MP guy that we're interested in. Preflop, he limps behind the UTG player. He's a TAG, so presumably he's a good player. Because there was just one player in front of him and multiple other players left to act, we should discount suited connectors from his range, as he's not getting very good implied odds with just one other person for sure in the hand, and a number of people that could raise who are left to act after him. Big pairs (99+) are probably also out of his range, as are big face cards, as he would likely be raising those hands in MP to iso the UTG limper. This leaves mostly small and medium pocket pairs. Call it 22-88 preflop.

We lead out on the 2-4-7 rainbow flop into a four-way hand, so our perceived range is pretty strong. This particular player is "a little too tight" and a "little bit passive." He also doesn't like to get into marginal situations. All of these factors lead us to believe that he's very strong when he reraises. Our antenna should be way up at this point, as this board hit his range pretty hard. Yes, we have bottom two, but he could easily have a set of sevens. Since we have a deuce and a four, it's not likely he has a set of ducks or fours, but it's not outside the realm of possibilities. He's not re-popping us with an under pair. He might be RRing us with eights or nines, but this is not super likely as he doesn't like difficult situations. Let's call his range 22, 44, 77, and 88.

Estimate: Against this range, our bottom pair is a 60:40 dog. Even if we add pocket nines to his range, we're still just even money. With $1000 stacks, we're not pot committed yet. We're also OOP against a normally-passive player who is displaying serious strength.

Decide: We may be ahead, but probably not. Given the stated tendencies of the villain, we have to assume he's not bluffing here. Yes, we hit a big-blind special, but our opponent is telling us he knows this and is still firing heavy artillery at us. Given that we have to select either all-in or fold, choosing to muck and move on is the more prudent play.*

Implement: Muckeroo.

Answer: Fold

All-in for now...
-Bug
*If you're not occasionally folding winners in hold'em, you're not playing good poker.