Sunday, November 27, 2011

Poker Quiz Question #39

Q#39: You're in a $5/$10 NL cash game. It's 8-handed. You have $1800. You are in late position with 7h7c. You make a standard open raise to $40 and the solid, tight-aggressive player in the big blind with $1700 re-raises you to $120. You call. The flop is Ks-Qc-7d. The BB bets $160 and you call. The turn is Jh. The BB bets $400 and you call. The river is the Tc. The BB pushes all-in for about $1000. What should you do?
  1. Call
  2. Fold

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A#39: This Bug's initial gut reaction is to fold. Let's see what REDi tells us....

Reads: the BB is a "solid" TAg player. He therefore knows that your range is wide opening from LP, and he could therefore be restealing with a pretty wide range. Call it all pairs, all aces, and most big broadways. When you call his PF raise, however, your perceived range tightens up fairly dramatically. He has to put you on a stronger range than his own perceived range. In other words, he now knows that you're fairly strong and in fact have a "real" hand, most likely small-middle pairs and maybe some big suited connectors.

The flop comes out rainbow KQ7. This has two connected broadway cards, and the BB bets $160 into a $245 pot. We can't really narrow his range at this point, because he could simply be c-betting here.

Next, you smooth call*, so he has to put you on hands like 77-JJ, AJ, and JTs. In other words, it's going to be really interesting what he does on the turn if a scare card comes.

{*Our smooth calling here is dangerous. At the higher stakes you can maybe (slow)play with fire this way, but at the lower stakes it's strongly advisable just to "bet your set" and protect your equity in the hand.}

The turn is the Jh, which is definitely a scare card. Flushes aren't possible, but straights are definitely in your range. They're also definitely in his range, too. He has to have at least two pair here when he fires $400 into the $565 pot. In other words, he knows you're strong, and yet he fires again.

Now, the problem stated that he was "solid." It didn't say that he was "tricky" or "bluffy" so let's assume that he's now playing very straightforward. The flop cbet was standard with a made hand or air for him, but this turn bet should tell us more accurately whether he's strong or not. Note also that he's reading you for strength, and yet he fires again. Said another way: he like his hand-- a lot. Let's eliminate all the small and medium pairs from his range. Call it 99+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

When you smooth call his turn bet, he has to now absolutely know you're super strong, as you wouldn't be just cold-calling with draws here. The river is then the Tc and he shoves all-in for his last $1000 into the $1365 pot.

Our read on the villain is now one of great strength. He knows you have a big hand, he's giving you nearly 2.4:1 to make this call, and yet he fired his remaining chips. His range has to be ace-high straights and over-sets. I don't think he's doing this with just two pair, as we could easily have an ace in our hand. I think his range is now narrowed to something like 99+,A2s+,A2o+. We might throw in a random 2-pair hand like JT that he semi-bluffed on the flop and turn, but it's unlikely.

Estimate: Against the opp's range, we're basically crushed. At best we're something like a 90:10 dog if has a random two-pair in his range. At worst, we have zero equity. We're not pot committed, either.

Decide: We're crushed and not pot committed. Therefore our line should be Fold.

Implement: Muckeroo.

Answer: Fold

All-in for now...
-Bug

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