- Call and fold to a strong turn bet
- Call and raise turn bet
- Call and call strong turn bet
- Shove All-in
A#46: Okay, let's start where this Bug usually starts: REDi.
Reads: We don't know anything about this player, so we need to assume he's an average decent reg until we learn differently. This means he's playing his hands straightforwardly and not particularly tricky. He's in the big blind and he calls what looks like a LP steal attempt from us. Therefore, his calling range is going to be something like 22-JJ, A9-AJ, and maybe some big suited connectors, like JTs, QJs, and the like.
The flop is moderately wet, with flush and straight draws, plus two big cards. Our cbet is very standard, but the villain's X/R isn't. In other words he's projecting strength here. This strength could either be real (two pair or better), semi-real (TPGK), or could represent a flush or straight draw (or combo). I would lean toward the latter two, because if he flopped a monster he would probably try to wait to hook us on the turn when/if we fired a second barrel. On the other hand, however, the board is wettish, so if he did flop a big one- or two-pair type hand, he might be betting to protect his equity and keep us from seeing cheap turn cards.
Let's narrow his range to hands like A9-AJ, 22, JJ, and combo draws like KcQc.
Estimate: against this range, our hand is in serious trouble at something like 15:85. Even if we add in some tricky pseudo-bluff hands into his range, like 88-TT, we're still a 45:55 dog.
We're not pot committed at this point, but our opponent seems to be willing to get himself close to committed here on the flop.
Decide: A good rule of thumb in cash games is don't go broke with one pair, especially if it's TPWK. Our current hand strength equity stinks, our kicker is very weak, and we really don't have any backdoor equity. Also, our fold equity is poor, as our opponent is approaching a pot commitment threshold. Ergo, I think we're pretty obviously on a fold line.
All-in for now...