Thursday, May 10, 2012

Missed Fold Equity

I played in my monthly 45-man $25 live tourney last night. A big fraction of the gang showed up, including Flyboy, Raster, Solar Ted, 'Copter Bob, The Tash, and even my son. Good times were had by all, and Raster sent an email out this morning that said he took third place. Woo hoo! Gotta love it when one of the crew monies!

Ah, but that's not to say all was good. The very fact that he had to send an email with the good news is just another way of saying that none of us were still there to witness the score. Instead, we all popped out early like zits on the morning of a teenager's prom, yours truly included. Worse, I busted in the worst way possible: I screwed up.

 I can take coolers.

 I can handle bad beats.

 Hell, I can even deal with losing to luck boxes that thrive on suck outs.

 The thing I hate, however, is busting because I made a stupid mistake. Here's what happened:

Blinds were T500/T1K and I was sitting with a stack of around T16K. We were down to three tables, and my image was fairly snug. Table was relatively good, with me having position on the better players, and some weak-tight players on my left.

I was dealt A3♥ on the button, and the action folded to me. The small blind was a nit, and the big blind was a relatively tight player, too, and had been folding to my steals more often than not. The few times I was called by him, he turned over face cards, and the one time he reraised me, he turned over a pair fours. I had also seen him fold a turned top pair face-up to a big re-reraise.

Anyway, back to the hand. After it folded to me, I raised to T3K. The small blind folded, but the big blind called. With little to go on, I put him on face cards, Ax, or suited connectors. He had me slightly covered in chips.

The flop came out J♠-4-7, which gave me the nut flush draw, an over card, and a backdoor straight draw. Perfect for a c-bet when the BB checks to the raiser....

 ...ah, but the BB decided to donk out for T3K into the T6.5K pot. I was getting over 3:1 pot odds to call. I probably had 9-12 clean outs twice to the flush and/or an overpair. I did the math in my head and called. 


 Yes, I was getting the right pot odds to call and see two cards, but why the hell I didn’t just shove is beyond me. In other words, I calculated I was getting enough odds to see the turn and river, so I had mentally committed to seeing the turn and river. And if I’m planning on seeing the turn and river, why not add fold equity into my arsenal as well?

 The turn came a blank. Pot was T12.5K, and I had about a T10K behind. The villain led again for T5K. Which left me in a terrible spot.

Do I call and then shut down on the river if I miss? If so, my M is in horrible shape, but o the other hand I won’t be quite dead.

Do I reshove here? If so, the villain will be getting great odds to call with top pair, so my fold equity is basically nill.

Do I fold? If so, what the hell am I doing in the hand in the first place (remember, I said I mentally committed to seeing two cards). Ugh.

In the end I reshoved. The villain thought for a relatively long time, but then called. Of course he turned over KJ, and then of course held on the river. I was sent packing.

I repeat: Arghghg.

Seriously,  I don’t mind missing my draw, but what I do hate is how I missed the fold equity opportunity. 


But at least Raster scored.

All-in for now…

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