Bug's Poker Tip #41

Don't Draw to an Inside Straight-- Unless You Should

You might have heard the admonition on an old TV western, or perhaps it was spoken by your Aunt Mildred at a kitchen table penny-ante game: Don't draw to an inside straight, sonny-boy. It's a bad call. It's a damn sucker's play.

So, why do they say this? Because the odds of making your hand are pretty low, that's why. If you flop an inside straight draw on the flop, you'll only get there about 16% of the time by the river. This in turn means you need very good pot odds to make the call-- or least some damn good implied odds. In other words, this is usually a bad draw.

Except when it isn't.

Said simply: if you're getting the correct odds to chase a 4-outer like an inside straight gutter-ball draw, you should make the call. The math don't lie, friendo. Poker is all about getting your money in good, which means if you're on the right side of the pot odds, you're doing your job correctly. You're playing profitable poker. Hell, if a villain offers you the right odds to chase a razor thin 1-outer, you should make that call, too. Sure, you will miss a 1-outer something like 96% of the time, but if you're getting pot odds that are better than this, it's a good call. In fact, it's a necessary call. Not calling is a mistake.

Poker is a game of math and odds and equities. Plus EV is plus EV, even if it's a  damn inside straight draw, sonny-boy

All-in for now...

-Bug

PLO Question

Here's one that's been rattling around in my still-jet lagged brain the last couple of days:

In a pot limit game like PLO, a villain can bet at most the size of the pot. This means that a potential caller is always offered at least 2:1 pot odds. In other words, one only needs 33% hand equity to call a pot sized bet.

Because equities run so close in PLO, this would seem to mean that calling is much more frequently the right play (especially in position) than it is in, say, NLHE, where the equities tend to be further apart.

In other words (and yes there are a lot of factors that go into the decision), calling would seem to be the default decision when facing a bet in PLO. In contrast, the opposite (i.e., folding) is generally the default in hold'em.

Yes, no, or ??

All-in for now...
-Bug

Missed Fold Equity

I played in my monthly 45-man $25 live tourney last night. A big fraction of the gang showed up, including Flyboy, Raster, Solar Ted, 'Copter Bob, The Tash, and even my son. Good times were had by all, and Raster sent an email out this morning that said he took third place. Woo hoo! Gotta love it when one of the crew monies!

Ah, but that's not to say all was good. The very fact that he had to send an email with the good news is just another way of saying that none of us were still there to witness the score. Instead, we all popped out early like zits on the morning of a teenager's prom, yours truly included. Worse, I busted in the worst way possible: I screwed up.

 I can take coolers.

 I can handle bad beats.

 Hell, I can even deal with losing to luck boxes that thrive on suck outs.

 The thing I hate, however, is busting because I made a stupid mistake. Here's what happened:

Blinds were T500/T1K and I was sitting with a stack of around T16K. We were down to three tables, and my image was fairly snug. Table was relatively good, with me having position on the better players, and some weak-tight players on my left.

I was dealt A♥3♥ on the button, and the action folded to me. The small blind was a nit, and the big blind was a relatively tight player, too, and had been folding to my steals more often than not. The few times I was called by him, he turned over face cards, and the one time he reraised me, he turned over a pair fours. I had also seen him fold a turned top pair face-up to a big re-reraise.

Anyway, back to the hand. After it folded to me, I raised to T3K. The small blind folded, but the big blind called. With little to go on, I put him on face cards, Ax, or suited connectors. He had me slightly covered in chips.

The flop came out J♠-4♥-7♥, which gave me the nut flush draw, an over card, and a backdoor straight draw. Perfect for a c-bet when the BB checks to the raiser....

 ...ah, but the BB decided to donk out for T3K into the T6.5K pot. I was getting over 3:1 pot odds to call. I probably had 9-12 clean outs twice to the flush and/or an overpair. I did the math in my head and called. 

Arghgh.

 Yes, I was getting the right pot odds to call and see two cards, but why the hell I didn’t just shove is beyond me. In other words, I calculated I was getting enough odds to see the turn and river, so I had mentally committed to seeing the turn and river. And if I’m planning on seeing the turn and river, why not add fold equity into my arsenal as well?

 The turn came a blank. Pot was T12.5K, and I had about a T10K behind. The villain led again for T5K. Which left me in a terrible spot.

Do I call and then shut down on the river if I miss? If so, my M is in horrible shape, but o the other hand I won’t be quite dead.

Do I reshove here? If so, the villain will be getting great odds to call with top pair, so my fold equity is basically nill.

Do I fold? If so, what the hell am I doing in the hand in the first place (remember, I said I mentally committed to seeing two cards). Ugh.

In the end I reshoved. The villain thought for a relatively long time, but then called. Of course he turned over KJ, and then of course held on the river. I was sent packing.

I repeat: Arghghg.

Seriously,  I don’t mind missing my draw, but what I do hate is how I missed the fold equity opportunity. 

Sigh.

But at least Raster scored.

All-in for now…
-Bug

Folding Quad Aces

I started thinking about doing a post on stack-to-pot ratios (SPR), but I quickly realized that before I could do that, I needed to step back and think about the whole notion of commitment in general. Why? Because the main purpose of SPR is to determine (and in fact plan for) commitment in a hand. But this begs the question of what we mean by being committed in the first place. And the place to start this discussion is with a look at "pot commitment."

Pot commitment is a term you often hear bandied about at poker tables. Things like “I was pot committed, so I had to call” or “I made a crying call on the river” or “I knew I was beat, but the pot was so big I had to stay in” are often said by players who don’t fully understand what it means to be committed to the pot. They vaguely understand that as the pot size grows in the middle of the table, they become mathematically more and more compelled to continue in the hand, but they don’t understand when they’ve crossed a threshold and actual commitment takes place. Or why. Too often, players simply use the notion of pot commitment as an excuse to make reckless calls. They throw good money after bad because of a vague idea that the pot is so big that they're not supposed to give up on it. Here’s an extreme example to illustrate the point.

Let’s pretend that you sit down in a $0.50/1.0 cash game. Everyone has $100 stacks at the start of the hand. On the very first hand in the big blind, you are dealt A♣-A♥. The action folds to the small blind, who raises to $5. You decide to get tricky and just call. The pot is $10, and the flop comes out A♦-A♠-2♠, giving you quad aces. Your opponent bets $30 into the pot, and again you just call. The pot is now $70. The turn is the 8♠ and your opponent now bets $64 into the pot. Again, you just call. There is now $198 in the pot, and each of you has just $1 left. The river is the 5♠, and your opponent bets his last $1 chip.

As you are preparing to call the $1 bet, your opponent accidently exposes his hand. He has 3♠-4♠, which gives him a straight flush. There is a $199 in the pot and it costs you just $1 to call. Should you? Are you pot committed to call?

Obviously, the answer is no, of course not. The pot could be a million dollars, and you would be wrong to make this call. Hell, it could be ten million dollars and you’d still be wrong to call. Why? Because your expected value of calling would always be a negative number:

EV = (0%)($10,000,000) – (100%)($1) = negative one dollar

You are guaranteed to lose one dollar if you make this call. Said another way, determining whether you are pot committed or not rests entirely on comparing the price that the pot is currently offering you to the probability that your hand can win. Now let’s take this same extreme example above and make it slightly more believable:

Let’s say that you still have quad aces and the board is still A♦-A♠-2♠-8♠-5♠. This time, however, the pot is $150 and you are deciding whether to call off your last $50. Your opponent exposes his hand again, but this time you only see the 3♠ clearly; the other card is obviously a spade, but you don’t know which spade it is. It’s either the 4♠ or the 6♠. Should you make the call?

To answer this, we need to first think about what the pot is offering us, and compare that to what our likelihood of winning the hand is. Our pot odds are simply $150:$50, which is 3:1, or 25%. We will win half the time (if the unknown card is the 6♠), and lose the other half of the time (if the unknown card is the 4♠). This means we’re even money to win, or 1:1, or 50%. Now, 50% is greater than 25%, so this is a clear call. We can arrive at the same “call” answer by calculating our expected value:

EV = (50%)($150) – (50%)($50) = +$50

Calling seems obvious, doesn’t it? Well, what if the pot had been $100, and we were contemplating calling off our entire $100 stack on the river. The EV would be:

EV = (50%)($100) – (50%)($100) = zero

Said another way, folding quads here is just as correct as calling. You are not pot committed, and folding is mathematically correct.

“But, but, but…”, you’re shouting right now. How can folding quad aces ever be the right play? Quads are so incredibly strong. You’d have to be insane to fold!

Wrong. The math doesn’t lie. The absolute strength of your hand is irrelevant. What matters is its relative strength compared to your opponent’s likely holdings. What matters is whether you’re getting a good enough price to call. And this is the essence of what it means to be pot committed. Are you getting the correct price or not? Do the math, and then decide.

All-in for now...
-Bug