Yes, I'm Still Alive...

...Barely. Had a pretty rough past couple of weeks on the travel and health front. Spent a cold/rainy week in Spain, and then went from there directly to Hawaii for another cold and windy week of fun at altitude on the mountain. Somewhere along the way I picked up a bad chest cold, got a sunburn, stopped sleeping, started getting some migraines... yada yada. I'm getting too old for this crap, but the reality of my job is it's going to continue for the next 3-4 years like this. Worst part is a) the overnight flights; and b) the screwed up diet and exercise routines that come with biz travel. After all these years of travel, I still haven't managed to find a way to not come back home feeling crummy.

Quack quack quack.

On the good news front, I did make significant progress (due to sleepless airplane seat time) to get better organized on the ABC Poker Training front. It might sound to an outsider like I'm over-thinking the layout and organization side of things when it comes to the training material I'm putting together, but the truth is I am a person that needs structure for this type of thing. I've written a number of non-fiction books in the past, and I've learned that spending time up front with outlines and structure is a key to success. As Abraham Lincoln reportedly said, "If I had an hour to cut down a tree, I'd spend 45 minutes sharpening my ax."

The direction I've decided on with this ABC project is the writing of an actual (e)book. The focus/theme for the tome is the process to take an absolute beginner, step-by-step, up the learning ladder, progressing from Level-0 poker (i.e., How do you play this silly game?), through Level-1 (What are my cards and how do I play them in a vacuum?), Level-2 (What cards do my opponents have and how do I use that information to maximize EV?), and Level-3 (What cards do they think I have, and how do I use that against them?). I even have what I consider pretty helpful material on so-called Level-4 and above poker that could move someone into the professional player arena. Seriously.

If/when I get the book done, the next step would be (I think) to produce a series of coaching videos on each chapter of the book.  All of this would end up on a website, eventually.

And that's the current plan. But it's on a small temporary hold whilst I go cough a lung out and try to recover. Quack quack hack hack quack...

All-in for now...
-Bug

Thinking Caps

"Poker is not about what you have. It's about what you think the other guy has."

-Bart Hansen

Along with a dozen other tasks, projects, and things I'm behind on at home and at work, I'm also currently trying to get caught up on a bunch of Bart Hansen podcasts that my phone has downloaded but I've not yet had time to listen to. On yesterday's lunch-time walk, I hit Play on a good one called "Capped Ranges". It was excellent. [As usual, these podcasts are chock full of really sound info and strategy advice. If you've got a spare $10/month, I highly recommend subscribing to Hansen's weekly 1-hour podcast to help improve your game.  It's mostly NL cash, but he also sprinkles in tournament play, Omaha, and other general poker concepts. Great, great stuff contained therein. There's also a pretty good forum he runs, plus he has live game videos. Here's a link if you're interested: Seat Open Poker.]

Anyway, one of the capped range hand examples from today's podcast tickled my fancy, so I figured I'd make a quick post to share the love. (I've modified the example a little to simplify for blog use...):

You're on the button in a $10/$20 NL full ring cash game. Full 100BB stacks. There's been a straddle UTG, so effectively there are three blinds ($10/$20/$40). You have 95o. Lots of money already in the pot from the straddle, so you decide to raise on a pure steal attempt when the action folds around to you.

The SB foils your steal attempt, however, and calls. The BB and UTG straddler fold. Flop is A-J-5, two tone. The SB player checks to you and you c-bet with your bottom pair. The small blind is a standard ABC player. He calls your continuation bet.

Now, stop and think. What is villain's range? Or, more importantly, is his range "capped" at a certain strength level? Said another way, what strong hands doesn't he have?

Hansen said (and after a lot of thought, I now agree) that villain's non-flush range is capped at AT and below. (He could also obviously have things like a flush draw).

Why AT? With AK and AQ, he would have probably RR'd preflop to drive the big blind and the straddler out of the pot. Probably the same with JJ. With QQ+, he'd probably be RR'ing for value preflop to build the pot. With the flush draw possibility out there on the flop, he's also probably check-raising or donking with AJ to "protect" his hand against the draw. He *might* have a set of fives, but with you holding one of the fives in the deck it's combinatorically unlikely.

Said another way, we've "capped" villain's range at moderately strong one pair type hands and below. He probably has you beat at this moment, but knowing his range (and of course having position) gives you a huge advantage in this hand.

Now, let's imagine that the turn is a 9 that brings in a second, backdoor flush draw (i.e., there are now two flush draws on the board). Again he checks. Given our read, we now believe we have the beset hand, so we fire with our turned two pair. Again, villain just calls.

Let's stop and think again: His range remains capped at a weak AT-type ace and flush draws, right? Nothing has changed.

Next, let's imagine that the river is a 3 that completes the front door flush. Villain checks.

Stop and think again: If he had the flush, most ABC players are betting out here, afraid of you shutting it down and checking behind. They want to get paid off, so they (erroneously) lead out. They're not thinking about your hand strength because they made their hand. In other words, we've removed the flush from his range, so the cap of AT remains.

So, when he checks to you, what should you do? You almost certainly have the best hand., so you want value. But how much to bet?

Again, stop and think: You know he's got something, or else he wouldn't have check-called this far into the hand. You also know he's not super strong, or he would have let us know this on an earlier street. He probably wants a cheap showdown. He will also probably fold to a big bet. Therefore something like 1/3 of the pot is probably cheap enough for him to make a crying call. Maybe you can bet a little bigger, but anything over half pot probably won't get a call.

We bet 30% of pot, and villain calls and turns over A-8.

How did we know he had a hand like this? We stopped and thinked, that's how.

All-in for now...
-Bug