Position = Information, Part 3

And lest you think I'm just an old sourpuss bug that only folds small pocket pairs preflop, here's another quick hand example that shows the power of information that comes with position:



Villain in this hand is a very ABC player who has trouble letting go of big pairs on dry-ish boards. His early position preflop stats are moderately tight, so Hero can easily put him on a big hand. Call it TT+, AQ+, and maybe KQs. Hero's 44 is clearly behind this range, but if it improves on flop he's likely to get paid off. Said another way: stacks are 100BB deep, and because Villain gets married to what he considers big hands, Hero is getting good implied odds to call to hit a set or better... and voila, Hero hits gin on the flop, and the rest is an exercise in getting paid off.

All-in for now...
-Bug
PS: Here's the hand history for those having trouble viewing the vid, above:

Hand Information

Game:
Blind:	$1/ $2
Hand History converter courtesy of pokerhandreplays.com

Table Information

Seat1:	seat 1	($200)	Small Blind
Seat2:	seat 2	($200)	Big Blind
Seat3:	seat 3	($200)
Seat4:	villain	($200)
Seat5:	seat 5	($200)
Seat6:	seat 6	($200)
Seat7:	seat 7	($200)
Seat8:	seat 8	($200)
Seat9:	hero	($200)	Dealer

Dealt to hero

Preflop (Pot:3)

seat 3

FOLD

villain

RAISE

$7

seat 5

FOLD

seat 6

FOLD

seat 7

FOLD

seat 8

FOLD

hero

CALL

seat 1

FOLD

seat 2

FOLD

Flop   (Pot: $17)

villain

BET

$11

hero

RAISE

$27

villain

CALL

Turn   (Pot: $82.00)

villain

CHECK

hero

BET

$40

villain

ALL-IN

$155

hero

CALL

River   (Pot: $317)

Showdown:

villain  SHOWS

hero  MUCKS

hero	wins the pot: $317

15/25/35 Rule, Part 2: More on the 10-Rule

I’ve got a few minutes of downtime while the wife is out shopping, so here are some more thoughts on the "15" part of the 15/25/35 Rule.


When you pick up a small or medium pocket pair and cold call a raise, you're almost always looking to "set-mine," which is simply the act of just trying to hit one of your two case cards on the flop and make three of a kind. If you miss, you give up and fold to any bet. No harm, no foul. You will only hit your set about one time in seven point five, so you need around eight to one in implied odds make the call.

So why do we say 15 instead of 8? Answer: the factor of fifteen is to make up for things like getting stacked by set-over-set, not getting paid off when you do hit, good opponents folding and not paying off when you hit, etc.

Another thing to note when set mining and applying 15x rule is that you’re more likely to get paid off by someone raising in EP than in LP (because they’re more likely to have a real hand). In fact, you actually want them to have a hand like AA or KK or QQ, because these are the hands that average players are more likely to get stubborn against you when you hit your set.

Also, you’re more likely to get paid off by nits that lags, bad players than good players, and so on. In other words, you can tweak the 15x rules accordingly, based on the caliber of player you’re cold-calling against and/or the range they hold. The more likely they are to pay you off (or the better their range), the closer to 8x you can go. Conversely, the less likely they are to fall into the trap of paying you and your set off, the higher the implied odds. I’ve frequently folded hands like 55 and 44 from the blinds against LP raisers that I’ve tagged as good. (But I’m also just as likely to reraise to resteal against these players, too; you should be constantly looking to maximize your EV. Sometimes, folding is the best play, while other times it’s better to fight back. Like most things in poker: it depends.)

In the next installment on this subject, I'll write a little bit about the "25" part of the rule...

All-in for now...
-Bug

The 15/25/35 Rule, Part 1: What is it?

The 15/25/35 rule is a tool that helps you determine whether you should cold-call a raise preflop with a speculative hand. It's based solely on effective stack sizes (and therefore implied odds (IO)). The 3-part rule states:

1. You need at least 15x the bet size in implied odds to call with a small/medium pocket pair
2. You need at least 25x in IOs to call with a suited connector
3. You need at least 35x in IOs to call with a non-suited connector or a suited gapper

For example, let's say you have a 4♣4♥ on the button in a $1/$2 and an UTG player opens for $6. Both you and he have $200 stacks. Your theoretical implied odds are therefore $200 / $6 = 33, which is greater than 15. Therefore, by the rule, you have enough IO to call and try to hit your set.

If your opponent had had a full $200 stack, but you only had $50 in your stack, your implied odds would have been $50 / $6 = 8.3, which is less than 15. Therefore you're not getting enough IOs to set mine.

Caveat: The 15/25/35 rule is just a guideline. The R-is-for-Reads step in REDi is vitally important to making this actually work correctly. For example, even if you're getting enough theoretical IOs, your actual IO's may be significantly less because your opponent isn't the type to pay off, or perhaps isn't holding the type of hand that he'll pay off with, etc.

All-in for now...
-Bug