Poker Quiz Question #31

Q#31: You're in a $10/$20 NL cash game with $2000 stacks. You limp UTG with As-Ks. The player on your left raises to $100. He is a tight-aggressive player. He's willing to make big bluffs and big calls. Folded back around to you. You re-raise to $360. He calls. The flop comes Ah-Ac-4c. You bet $320. He calls. Turn is the 8h. You check. He checks. River is 2d. You bet $600. He calls. Your image is tricky, tight and aggressive. Your opponent has seen you show down some bluffs in the past, but doesn't consider you a maniac. What is his most likely holding?

1. AK
2. KK
3. 44
4. 88

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A#31: Read (Preflop): You're both in early position, so you each know that the other has to have a strong hand. Further, you limp-reraised UTG preflop, which is almost always AA, KK, or AK. Sometimes it may be QQ, but our opponent doesn't think of you as too wild. so for his read on you let's stick with rockets, cowboys and/or big slick in your perceived range. He just called your RR preflop, rather than jam, so he's probably afraid of you having the AA. Could he have a small or medium pair? Not likely; it cost him $260 to call your limp-RR preflop with you holding just $1640 behind. This means he is only getting 6.3:1, which isn't enough direct odds to set mine, let alone enough implied odds. Ergo, it's unlikely he has either the 44 or 88 hand.

Read (Flop): You lead out for less than a pot-size bet on an Ah-Ac-4c flop, and he just calls. You could interpret this one of two ways: 1) he's wary with an SDV-type hand; or, 2) he's trapping with a monster. The fact that you have one of the remaining two aces in your own hand should bias your answer towards a strong-ish SDV hand. On this board--and given the multiple choice answers--I would lean toward the KK, although AK is still in his range.

Read (Turn): The fact that he checks behind on the 8h card really doesn't change anything except maybe solidify our read that he doesn't have a monster. If he did, he would be raising here to set up a stacks on the river.

Read (River): Another blank. You bet $600 and he does not raise, but instead just calls. He would be raising with monsters here, which include AK. We've ruled out 44 and 88 already. This just leaves KK from the list of possible answers.

Answer: KK

All-in for now...
-Bug