Thursday, January 17, 2013

Hand Analysis: Folding an OESD

Alas, not an MTT hand, but I had a small discussion with the Guru on the following cash game hand from the HotD site earlier this week:

Game type: 10/20 NL Ring
Opponent’s image: More TAG than LAG
The setup: You’re playing some live poker, and after watching some fish head over to the bigger NL games, you decide to sit down.
You’ve been fairly aggressive so far this session, raising a decent amount preflop and following up just about all of the time. Your opponent is a little tight, but not passive.
This hand you get 87s and raise to \$60 UTG +1. 3 players fold, the button calls, the SB folds and the BB calls. You flop open ended: K65
The BB checks and you bet \$120 into \$190. The button raises you to \$320. The BB folds. What’s your play? Call, fold, or raise?

• Board is rainbow and relatively dry.
• Opponent called an EP raise on the button. I think we can discount hands like JJ+, AQ+, and maybe even KQ, as he'd probably 3b pre with these kinds of hands. Instead, it feels like small and medium pairs, some suited connectors, and possibly some broadway connectors. His min raise on the flop could be something like a set, but why scare you off now with a raise; i.e., why wouldn't he wait until the turn to raise? Instead, this feels more like a hand like KJ or 99 or 88 that he wants to slow down the action on later streets with and/or find out where he's at.
• After the flop 3b, I'd put him on hands like: TT-55,KJs-K9s,76s,65s,54s,KTo+
Estimate:

• The pot is \$630.
• SPR is  2351/630=3.7317 , which is awkward-ish, but doesn't quite yet commit you yet.
• Pot odds are 630:200 to call, which is 630/200=3.15:1.
• With eight outs to the straight, your probability of hitting with one card (turn only) to come is 17%, or about 4.88:1. You're not getting enough direct odds to make this call and only see one card. (It will be very hard for you to continue if you miss the turn, therefore I'm assuming only one card).
• Implied odds if all the money goes in is 2351/200=11.755, which is relatively high.
• Fold equity is a little hard to estimate, but unless he has a set or two pair, and his Kings are indeed accompanied by weak kickers, you might actually have a fair bit of FE. On the other hand, your image is aggro, so your raise might not garner a lot of respect. Let's call it something like 33% to be safe.
• Pot equity against his range is 33% against his 67%.
• Expected value of shoving here is negative \$188.
Decide:

• You've got a draw and are not getting the right odds to call and see one card.
• Give our assumption of fold equity, semi-bluffing is negative EV. (We'd need about 50% FE to make this a neutral EV play).
• Unless you put a lot of merit in implied odds (i.e., getting paid off if you hit), I think the safe play is to fold.

Implement:

• Muck.

All-in for now…
-Bug

1 comment:

1. Players hate to fold in a case like this because it "feels" weak-tight. Good job using the math to help with the decision.