Bug's Poker Tip #11

Limpers Suck at Poker.

A very common beginner leak is limping and cold calling too much. Remember, there are two ways to win at poker [1) show down the best hand; and 2) get everyone else to fold]. By just calling, limpers are essentially abandoning the second, more powerful method. Generally speaking, limpers, especially at the low stakes tables, are fit-or-fold poker players. They see two shiny-bright cards in their hand, and they conjure up images of making straights, flushes, and two-pair hands on the flop. They're particularly guilty of this from the blinds, where they feel they're getting a good price to limp in. The sad truth about hold'em is you only hit a flop roughly one third of the time, and a majority of those flops that technically "hit" are garbage (e.g,. bottom pair) and/or the board is scary wet. You should think of hitting the flop as just a back-up plan to your blind stealing, light 3- and 4-betting, isolating, squeezing, multi-barreling, and so on. As the pro's like to joke: No one ever hits a flop in Texas Hold'em.

All-in for now...

-Bug

The 15/25/35 Rule, Part 1: What is it?

The 15/25/35 rule is a tool that helps you determine whether you should cold-call a raise preflop with a speculative hand. It's based solely on effective stack sizes (and therefore implied odds (IO)). The 3-part rule states:

1. You need at least 15x the bet size in implied odds to call with a small/medium pocket pair
2. You need at least 25x in IOs to call with a suited connector
3. You need at least 35x in IOs to call with a non-suited connector or a suited gapper

For example, let's say you have a 4♣4♥ on the button in a $1/$2 and an UTG player opens for $6. Both you and he have $200 stacks. Your theoretical implied odds are therefore $200 / $6 = 33, which is greater than 15. Therefore, by the rule, you have enough IO to call and try to hit your set.

If your opponent had had a full $200 stack, but you only had $50 in your stack, your implied odds would have been $50 / $6 = 8.3, which is less than 15. Therefore you're not getting enough IOs to set mine.

Caveat: The 15/25/35 rule is just a guideline. The R-is-for-Reads step in REDi is vitally important to making this actually work correctly. For example, even if you're getting enough theoretical IOs, your actual IO's may be significantly less because your opponent isn't the type to pay off, or perhaps isn't holding the type of hand that he'll pay off with, etc.

All-in for now...
-Bug

Raise or Fold versus Fold or Raise

Read any good modern poker book and you will undoubtedly come across advice that says you should rarely if ever cold call. The standard advice is to Raise or Fold. Don't Call.

Is this good advice? Answer: No and Yes, in that order. Let's start with the "Yes" part of the answer first, which deals with cold calling.

Cold calling is generally a bad thing in cash games. My game took a serious step forward a year or so ago when I began embracing the concept of eschewing the flat call. Let's say I've got fives in the big blind and a late position player open raises. In times past, I would nearly always call with this hand, but now--if I'm going to play the fives--I'm going to almost always raise. I am not cold calling with fives in this situation unless I have real, honest to God, I-am-more-likely-to-get-paid-off-than-not-if-I-hit-my-set, implied odds. Otherwise, if I'm going to play it, I'm going to add fold equity to my chance of winning by 3betting. I'm not going to flat.

Ah, but the caveat here are my words "if I'm going to play it." Which brings us to the "No" part of the original answer. Raise or Fold is wrong-way-'round advice, me thinks.

Said another way, (literally) the correct advice, in my humble opinion, should be Fold or Raise, not Raise or Fold.

For the average TAg player, your first inclination in a cash game should be to Fold. With those fives in the blinds against a late position raiser, you probably should just muck and move on. You'll be OOP throughout the hand, and the late position opener almost certainly does not have a hand that will pay you off; i.e., the implied odds are just not there to set mine. So fold.

If for some reason you decide that folding is not correct, your next default response should be to Raise. Why call when you can add fold equity to the mix with a 3bet? In other words, the hierarchy of your default thinking at a cash table should be, in order:

Fold? -- > Raise? -- >Call? -- >Fold.

All-in for now...
-Bug