Bug's Poker Tip #45

Accept Variance

This might just be the hardest concept for poker beginners to understand. Or accept. Hell, I know plenty of experienced players who have trouble accepting it. I've blogged about Variance off-and-on over the years, but it still bears repeating: just because you are a good player does not mean you will win at this game-- at least not over the short term.  Poker may be skilled based, but only over the long run. The Guru used to teach to his class--quite emphatically--that poker is 100% skill-based, but what he meant was it was skill-based over the lifetime of a player. Whether we like it or not, Lady Luck plays a significant role over the course of a session, a week, a month. You can be smart enough to get all your money in preflop with aces against deuces over and over, but luck is going to determine if your Rockets hold up or not against the Ducks. Over time, Aces will win a significant fraction of the time, but on a hand-by-hand basis there are no guarantees. 

It is important to understand that just because you are currently winning at poker, it does not mean you are actually playing well. Conversely, losing does not necessarily mean you are playing poorly, either. Variance can greatly skew your short term results. You have to evaluate all your hands--both winning and losing--to determine if you're making good decisions. And that's all you can do. The results don't really matter. Why? Because of Variance, my friend. Accept it.

All-in for now...

-Bug

Bug's Poker Tip #34

When in doubt, treat a min-bet on later streets just like a check.

Nine times out of ten, when an ABC player bets small into you on the river, they have a weak hand. Treat that bet like a check. Here's a simple example:

Hero's preflop raise isolates the limper. Hero checks behind on flop because wet board smacks villains range (medium pairs and flushy- straighty-type cards); i.e., c-betting as a bluff is probably going to fail. Villain's weird min bet on Q-high doesn't make sense, so hero calls, planning to reevaluate on river. Villain min bets again on river Ace. Again, weird. Bug's Tip says to treat min bets on river like weak hands; i.e., pretend bet is actually a check. Villain would be checking here with a single pair type hand and busted draws, and will probably fold to a larger bet. Hero therefore believes he has best hand, bets slightly under half size pot for value. (But will fold to check-raise.) Villain tanks, then calls, turning over a weak ace and busted straight draw.

All-in for now...

-Bug

Hand Information for java-script challenged browsers:

Game:
Blind:	$0.25/ $0.50
Hand History converter courtesy of pokerhandreplays.com

Table Information

Seat1:	seat 1	($50)	Small Blind
Seat3:	seat 3	($50)	Big Blind
Seat5:	seat 5	($50)
Seat6:	villain	($50)
Seat8:	seat 8	($50)
Seat10:	hero	($50)	Dealer

Dealt to hero

Preflop (Pot:0.75)

seat 5

FOLD

villain

CALL

seat 8

FOLD

hero

RAISE

$2.50

seat 1

FOLD

seat 3

FOLD

villain

CALL

Flop   (Pot: $6.25)

villain

CHECK

hero

CHECK

Turn   (Pot: $6.25)

villain

BET

$0.50

hero

CALL

River   (Pot: $7.25)

villain

BET

$0.50

hero

RAISE

$3.50

villain

CALL

Showdown:

villain  SHOWS

hero  SHOWS

winning hand

hero	wins the pot: $14.75

Bug's Poker Tip #31

Be a Folding Polar Bear

When animals--and almost all normal people--face a physical threat, their bodies go rigid. From a physiological standpoint it's not efficient, but it's the general rule. Polar bears are the exception. They can lie in wait, perfectly relaxed, for two hours without once releasing the heightened readiness of [waiting for a seal to appear.] 

-Peter Hoeg, Smilla's Sense of Snow

There is interaction if there is a call for it, no interaction if there is no call for it.

-Zen Master Yangshan

You've been folding a lot. You sat down an hour ago, the table is full of rich fish giving their money away, and all you have to show for your time is a slow dribbling away of your stack to the blinds. Everybody except you has gotten playable cards. Your butt is numb. Your mind is starting to wander. You're bored silly*. You're starting to think that maybe it's time you got in there and started playing hands again.... Bzzzzt! Folks, this is not reason enough. Keep folding. Yes, there is a poker axiom that says action begets action, and that you're less likely to get paid if your opponents see you as a nit, but when you're seriously card dead in a low- or mid-stakes cash game, 99 times out of 100, it's better to just wait for a spot than try to force the action. Just because you folded 99 times in a row, doesn't mean you shouldn't also fold the next ninety-nine. Poker is a game of patience, of waiting for plus-EV opportunities, of picking your spots-- and then pouncing like a hungry polar bear. Or, as Larry Phillips says in Zen and the Art of Poker, "Some players think there is some kind of statute of limitations on folding. After two hours, you've paid your dues-- you've proven that you're a disciplined player. So now you've earned the right to play again, right? Nope. Keep folding." 'Nuff said.

All-in for now...

-Bug

*You should never be bored in a poker game, even if you're a folding fanatic. When you're not involved in a poker hand, you should be paying attention to the action at the table, putting players on their hands, figuring out who's tilting, who's feeling cocky, who is ready to leave, who is looking for action... and so on. If you're bored at a poker table, you're doing something seriously wrong.

Bug's Poker Tip #28

Ask: What do they have?

Bart Hanson tweeted something the other day that was seemingly innocuous, but is actually quite profound. He wrote: "If you aren't asking yourself 'what does this guy have' during a hand, you're doing something wrong." In other words, if you're not playing at least level-2 poker, you're not really playing poker. Instead, you're playing some kind of rote game in which you look at your cards and make a set play based on position and board texture. Folks, that's losing poker. To beat this game, you have to put your opponent on a range. Period. All kinds of factors come into play, and at first you'll probably not be very good at hand reading. But with some work, you can begin to make really clear and accurate reads. Start simply. For example, just think about what hands you play in different positions, and then assign that range to your opponent given his or her position. Will this range be correct? Probably not, but it's infinitely better than not assigning a range. Then, when the flop comes out, ask yourself what hands beat yours on this board. Go back to the range you put the opp on, and ask how much of that range hits the flop and beats you. In other words: THINK. Don't play rote poker, or you will never win. Instead, ask yourself, What does this villain have? Only then will you be playing real poker.

All-in for now...

-Bug

Bug's Poker Tip #27

If Villain Raises Postflop, They Probably Can't Fold

One of the many things I've learned listening to Bart Hanson's cash game podcasts is something he calls the "Aggressive Action Theorem." Basically this axiom states that if a villain raises after the flop is dealt, he or she is probably not going to fold later in the hand. This is particularly true at the low and medium stakes tables. At higher limits, the opponents you face are adept at bet/folding and raise/folding, but at the lower limits the villains tend to get "pot committed" and/or married to their hand if they've invested what they consider a lot of money to the pot. Even if they think they're beat, it's hard for these non-experts to fold their hands. This can be either a good or bad thing for you, as you can get somebody to stick around with a worse hand, but it also means that they probably can't be bluffed off a better hand they might have. In any case, just remember that if they raise postflop, they're probably incapable of folding their hand.

All-in for now...

-Bug

Bug's Poker Tip #26

They're Called Trouble Hands for a Reason

It's that old trick question: what's the worst possible starting hand you can be dealt in hold'em? Most beginners answer "7-2 offsuit" or "3-2 offsuit" or something similar. Bzzzzzzzt. These hands may technically fair the worst when run hot-and-cold to the river against the majority of other hands, but most of us also have enough common sense to fold them before it ever gets that far. In other words, you don't usually lose a lot of money with cheese cards like this. On the other hand, however, so-called "trouble hands" (a.k.a. Reverse Implied Odds, or RIO, hands) like KJ, KQ, AT, and QJ can lose you a ton of money at showdown.Why? Because people get married to them when they flop top pair. These kinds of hands simply look too good to fold... but the truth is that if you're getting a lot of action from a decent player on, say, a K-6-2 board when you hold KJ or even KQ, you're probably going to lose at showdown. By definition, an RIO hand more often than not wins little and loses big.  Now, I'm not suggesting that you never play hands like these, but I am saying that you should proceed with great caution if your competent opponent won't go away on an otherwise dry flop when you have TPGK. Said another way: Don't get married to these hands; be willing to get a quickie 'Vegas-style divorce the minute you suspect your hand is stepping out on you. She probably is.

All-in for now...

-Bug

Bug's Poker Tip #25

Don't Pay Off Big Turn and River Bets

This tip is similar to Bug Tip #1: They're Probably Not Bluffing, but is worth repeating/expanding upon here. In fact, besides the adage to play tight and aggressive, this might be the single best piece of technical poker advice you'll ever hear for low and medium stakes games: Do not pay anyone off unless there's a damn good reason to*. When someone makes a big turn or river bet, your one pair-type hand becomes just a bluff-catcher. And, as we said back in Tip #1, they're probably not bluffing. So what are you trying to catch? In other words, in the majority of cases, your opponent won't be making a value bet with an inferior hand to yours. It's not rocket science, friends: either you're beat, or your opponent is bluffing. And if they're not bluffing very much when they bet big, then you're most likely beat. Don't play the sheriff. Don't pay to see what they have. Don't pay them off. Yes, it can be frustrating and annoying and aggravating to feel like you're getting pushed off a hand like TPTK, but at low and medium stakes, most players don't try to push people off hands correctly/enough. They're playing ABC poker, and are simply trying to make a hand, and then when they do, they bet. A big bet from a standard opponent means a big hand. Don't pay just to confirm that fact. Fold. Take a breath. Move on.

All-in for now...

-Bug

*A "damn good reason" might be that the player is a maniac, is on tilt, or simply doesn't understand the game. Most opponents you usually face are none of these things.

Bug's Poker Tip #15

Don't Tap the Glass.

Don't teach, berate, lecture, or insult your opponents at the table, especially the ones who put bad beats on you. Don't tap the aquarium glass, or the fish will scurry away and hide. It's fine to discuss strategy and teach away from the tables, but doing it during play only serves to take away your edge (by fixing a leak in your opponent's game) and/or driving them and their money away. An old boss of mine once chided a coworker after a particularly stupid, antagonistic thing this person said at a meeting. My boss turned to the coworker and asked simply, "What exactly were you trying to achieve by saying what you did? Because here's what happened instead..."  Ask yourself what are you trying to achieve by telling a player who just bad beat you that they made a big mistake playing the hand the way they did? Help them not make this same mistake again? Shame the fish into leaving? Show the rest of the table that you're pissed and tilty? Remember that taking a bad beat should be a badge of honor you wear; it means you played the hand correctly and made the right decisions, getting your money in good. Your opponent didn't. So why try to correct that mistake in their play? Tapping on the glass usually means that you're the real fish at the table.

All-in for now...

-Bug

Bug's Poker Tip #14

When you have a good drawing hand, plan on missing the draw.

From the moment you find yourself with a drawing hand, you need to start planning to bluff on the river. Most draws miss. This is a fact. Open-ended straight draws on the flop only get there about 30% of the time. Flush draws fare only slightly better at 35%. In other words, you're not going to make your hand 65% to 70% of the time, or more than two out of every three times you draw. This means that if you want to take down the pot, you're going to have to bluff at it when your draw misses. And this whole process begins with a) determining whether your opponent in the hand is in fact bluffable; and b) acting in a way prior to the river that represents something other than a draw. Bad players are generally not bluffable. Really good players often aren't either, especially if they're reading you accurately and putting you on draws. Choose your spots to draw very carefully. If you don't think you can get away with a bluff on the river, then ask yourself why are you in this speculative hand in the first place?

All-in for now...

-Bug

Bug's Poker Tip #6

Bluffing is Over-Rated

At the micro- and low-stakes games, the vast majority of your profit is going to come from value betting your Value hands. It is not going to come from Bluffs. This is because many of the players you face at these tables are a) not putting you on a hand range at all; or b) are doing so very poorly. Said another way: You can't profitably bluff bad players. So don't even try. Stick to the concept of making your money by getting worse hands to call, not trying to get better hands to fold.

All-in for now...

-Bug

Bug's Poker Tip #2

The old guy always has it.

Stereotyping, while not a good thing in most other aspects of life, has a definite, acceptable place in poker. In fact, when you first sit down at a table, you need to use any and all clues at your disposal to start putting other players on hand ranges. This includes--gasp--the age, race, gender, clothing, body art, hygiene, and any and all other external factors the opp exhibits. The guy is eighty years old and betting strong on all three streets? It's more likely he has it than not. The guy is twenty with a hoodie and sunglasses? Now it's much less likely. This kind of stereotyping is valid online, too. The player has a hip poker-slang screen name like DonkeyBaller, complete with a bunch of site accolades and awards attached to his avatar? He's probably going to play LAggier than someone named JoansGrandDad1954. Stereotyping is just another valid tool to categorize opponents when you first sit down. Then you can start the process of refining your reads with actual notes, tells, betting, and other indicators.

All-in for now...

-Bug

Bug's Poker Tip #1

People bluff a lot less often than you think.

Sure, there are players who think bluffing is what poker is all about. So what? They're the minority, especially at the micros. If a player is trying to tell you that their hand is strong, listen to them. Seriously. Look at board texture and re-create the hand in your head. Does his bet say that he has it? If so, fold. Poker really isn't as difficult as we sometimes make it out to be. The Guru once remarked to me that, "This ain't rocket science." And you know what? He's right. Fold.

All-in for now...

-Bug