Special Bug Pages

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Flop Texture Statistics

Not at all sure yet what I can do with the following information, but it was posted recently on a flop texture thread on 2+2. The stats represent the results of 500 million random flops simulated on a computer.
All-in for now...
-Bug


FLOP TYPES FREQUENCY

---------------------------------------------------------------------
[ Flop Type ]            Calculated     Example
[ Rainbow              ]  39.76471%     Kc-8d-Qh
[ Monotone             ]   5.17647%     Kh-9h-6h
[ Two-suited           ]  55.05882%     2d-8s-4s
[---check suit types---] 100.00000% 

[ Paired flop          ]  16.94118%     3h-3c-Kd
[ Triplet flop         ]   0.23529%     Kc-Kd-Ks
[ Unpaired flop        ]  82.82353%     2d-8s-4s
[--check match types---] 100.00000% 

[ Pair & connector     ]   2.82353%     6s-6d-7c
[ Pair & 1gap          ]   2.60633%     3s-Ad-3d
[ Pair & 2+gap         ]  11.51131%     3h-3c-9d
[ Triplets             ]   0.23529%     Kc-Kd-Ks
[ 3-Straight           ]   3.47511%     3c-5d-4c
[ Connector & 1gap     ]   6.95023%     Qd-Ts-Kh
[ Connector & 2+gap    ]  26.93213%     Kc-8d-Qh
[ KA2 double connector ]   0.28959%     Kh-2d-Ad
[ Double gutshot       ]   3.18552%     6s-8s-4c
[ Other 1gaps          ]  21.42986%     2d-8s-4s
[ No cnct no 1gap no pr]  20.56109%     Kh-9h-6h
[-check connect types--] 100.00000% 

[ 28 Flop Combinations ]  Calculated     Example

[ Pair & cnctr  rainbow]   1.41176%     6s-6d-7c
[ Pair & cnctr 2-suited]   1.41176%     4h-4c-3h
[ Pair & 1gap   rainbow]   1.30317%     Qs-Ad-Ah
[ Pair & 1gap  2-suited]   1.30317%     3s-Ad-3d
[ Pair & 2+gap  rainbow]   5.75566%     3h-3c-9d
[ Pair & 2+gap 2-suited]   5.75566%     7s-7d-4d
[ Triplets             ]   0.23529%     Kc-Kd-Ks
[ 3-Straight    rainbow]   1.30317%     2s-3d-Ac
[ 3-Straight   2-suited]   1.95475%     3c-5d-4c
[ 3-Straight-Flush     ]   0.21719%     4s-6s-5s
[ Cnctr & 1gap  rainbow]   2.60633%     Qd-Ts-Kh
[ Cnctr & 1gap monotone]   0.43439%     Tc-8c-Jc
[ Cnctr & 1gap 2-suited]   3.90950%     5d-3c-6c
[ Cnctr & 2+gap rainbow]  10.09955%     Kc-8d-Qh
[ Cnctr & 2+gp monotone]   1.68326%     Ac-Jc-2c
[ Cnctr & 2+gp 2-suited]  15.14932%     6d-Jh-Td
[ KA2 dbl-cnct  rainbow]   0.10860%     2d-Kh-As
[ KA2 dbl-cnct monotone]   0.01810%     Ks-As-2s
[ KA2 dbl-cnct 2-suited]   0.16290%     Kh-2d-Ad
[ Dbl gutshot   rainbow]   1.19457%     3d-7c-5s
[ Dbl gutshot  monotone]   0.19910%     6d-2d-4d
[ Dbl gutshot  2-suited]   1.79186%     6s-8s-4c
[ Other 1-gaps  rainbow]   8.03620%     5s-7h-Ad
[ Other 1-gaps monotone]   1.33937%     Td-Qd-6d
[ Other 1-gaps 2-suited]  12.05430%     2d-8s-4s
[ No cnt/gp/pr  rainbow]   7.71041%     2d-Tc-6h
[ No cnt/gp/pr monotone]   1.28507%     Kh-9h-6h
[ No cnt/gp/pr 2-suited]  11.56561%     Jh-6h-As
[--check combinations--] 100.00000%

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Bug's Poker Tip #6

Bluffing is Over-Rated

At the micro- and low-stakes games, the vast majority of your profit is going to come from value betting your Value hands. It is not going to come from Bluffs. This is because many of the players you face at these tables are a) not putting you on a hand range at all; or b) are doing so very poorly. Said another way: You can't profitably bluff bad players. So don't even try. Stick to the concept of making your money by getting worse hands to call, not trying to get better hands to fold.

All-in for now...
-Bug

Sunday, August 12, 2012

Hand Chart Construction, Part 4: The Other Pairs

Queens. People frequently say that Queens are the most difficult hand to play preflop. (But then again, you hear the same thing about AK, JJ, middle pairs, and so on). Queens are considered difficult because they're listed in many books and charts as a "premium" hand, so people often lose their minds, overplay them, and go broke, expecting QQ to be as strong as KK. Well, guess what? They're not. Close, but not quite.
  • Hand Type: QQ is a Value hand that also has strong Showdown Value. You're not bluffing with this hand preflop.
  • Position. You can and should play QQ from any position preflop.
  • Stack Sizes. When super deep with QQ, the less inclined you should be to get all your money in preflop. Conversely, with stack sizes under, say, 80bb, you should not fear getting it in against everyone except the nittiest of players.
  • Table Dynamics. Who you're going up against will have perhaps the biggest effect on your decision to get it in or not PF. A loose player 4betting you is a lot better for your QQ than a tight, nittish player, as hands other than just AA and KK are in their range.
  • Upstream Action. You should not be afraid of an upstream raise when holding QQ, and in fact you should usually re-raise. But if you're facing a 4bet (or even a strong 3bet), you need to slow down to consider who is making the raise. If the 4bet is from a solid citizen, then folding might be appropriate, especially from EP, while calling the raise and then folding on the flop if an A and/or K hits is fine from the later positions.
  • How to Play: Like almost all the hands I play, I like to open this one with a raise. I will also reraise with it in most situations, but sometimes I will will call a 3bet preflop.
Jacks. This is another hand that people say is hard to play. In fact, the common joke heard at tables is: There are three ways to play Jacks, and all of them are wrong. One of the best pieces of advice I ever got on how to play JJ was from the Guru, who said I should play Jacks like I would 88 preflop; raise, but don't get married to them. This isn't perfect advice, but it's a great thing to keep in the back of your mind.
  • Hand Type: JJ is a Value hand that can have SDV on the right kind of board texture. You are not typically bluffing preflop with this hand. You might, however, consider turning it into a drawing hand to a set if you're facing an upstream raise from a nit in EP.
  • Position: You can and should play JJ from any position.
  • Stack Sizes. The usual rule of thumb applies with JJ: short effective stack sizes favor big pairs. If the stack size is under 60bb or so, get it in. Otherwise, you need to be careful with JJ and be willing to fold preflop is the raises and stack sizes suggest it.
  • Table Dynamics. JJ is not nearly as strong as it looks, but against a loose maniac it maintains much of its Value.
  • Upstream Action. When facing a strong 3bet from the field, consider just folding and moving on.
  • How to Play. You can/should reraise with JJ against a single raiser to isolate, as JJ plays best against a single opp. If the raiser is a super nit and you're in EP, consider just cold calling. If there are a lot of limpers in the pot, you can either squeeze comfortably with this hand, or consider limping behind and treating your fishhooks as a set-mining hand.
Tens and Nines. Tens and Nines are what some poker authors call "bread and butter" hold'em hands, meaning that you can and should earn a good living with them... provided you play them correctly, especially post-flop. And this means not getting married to them, and, just as importantly, re-Deciding on each street what Type the hand is.
  • Hand Type: Both of these hands have modest Value preflop and can have SDV on the right kinds of board. More importantly, you might decide to play these hands as a draw or semi-bluff pre- and post flop depending upon the game situation. 
  • Position: You can and should play TT and  99 from any position.
  • Stack Sizes. Similar to JJ, you should consider getting it all-in pre if the effective stack sizes are short enough (i.e., treat these hands as SDV). If the stacks are deep, then treat the hands as set-miners.
  • Table Dynamics. TT fairs well against LAgs, but you have to tread cautiously with it against most other player types. 99 also fairs OK, but its strength is quite a bit weaker than TT, as the number of hands that dominate grow quickly
  • Upstream Action. Like JJ, when facing a strong 3bet from the field, consider just folding these hands and moving on.
  • How to Play. Open raise, and consider raising a limper to isolate. Remember that you frequently have the current best hand preflop, so you don't want to let other hands in cheap. When facing a raise, you need to look hard at the players left to act. Calling behind can be profitable if you turn the hand into a Drawing hand (i.e. set-mining) if the implied odds are there, but you can easily get squeezed out of a pot if a downstream player decides to get frisky.
66-88. Ah, middle pairs, the bane of many a poker player's life. The simplest way to think of these hands is that they start relatively strong preflop, but then tank post-flop most of the time. Folding is absolutely an option.

  • Hand Type: These hands are often the best hand preflop, but almost certainly lose their value post-flop, especially if the hand goes multiway. I like to treat these as Semi-Bluff/Draw hands.
  • Position: You can play 66-88 from any position against average opponents.
  • Stack Sizes. If treated as set-miners, these hands obviously play better against deep-ish stacks than shallow ones. On the other hand, if the stacks are shallow enough (less than 30bb, you can consider getting it all-in pre against a single opponent, especially if you're the one pulling the trigger (i.e., shoving, not calling a shove).
  • Table Dynamics. If the table is very LAggy, with a lot of preflop action, you might consider mucking in EP, as you can often get re-popped and not have enough IOs to flat the raise when the action comes back to you.
  • Upstream Action. If the implied odds aren't there, don't call upstream raises. On the other hand, if the IOs are there, this is exactly the type of situation you want to call with.
  • How to Play. Open raise. Call a raise if the IOs are there and the risk of getting squeezed out downstream is minimal. Post flop, unless there is a damn good reason to deviate, treat these hands as fit-or-fold cards.

22-55. Small pairs are just that: small. Yes, according to software tools like Pokerstove, these hands are on a equal footing with over cards, but that's preflop and in a perfect world. On most flops, especially OOP against thinking players, you will be crushed and/or completely unsure where you stand, as the board will almost certainly contain cards that are bigger than yours. Folding, especially in EP, should be part of your arsenal to maximize EV with these hands.

  • Hand Type: These are classic Semi-Bluff/Drawing hands.
  • Position: At a full-ring table, you can't play these hands profitably from EP. You can, however, play them from MP on if the situation is right.
  • Stack Sizes. These hands are set-miners, so they play better against deeph stacks than shallow ones. And, like the middle pairs, you can consider getting it all-in preflop if the stacks are very short (again, if you're the one pulling the trigger, and not the one dodging the bullet). Where these hand get most people into trouble is in games with "average" sized (read: 50-150bb) deep stacks.
  • Table Dynamics. If the table is super tight or super LAggy, you may not be getting true implied odds even if the stack sizes make you think you are.
  • Upstream Action. This one is simple: if the implied odds aren't there, don't call upstream raises. On the other hand, if the IOs are there, this is exactly the type of situation you want to call with. 
  • How to Play. Lots of books say to limp with these hands, but IMHO this just turns your hand face-up to aware opponents. Therefore, I like to open raise with these hands, but I don't like playing them in the earliest of positions at a full-ring table. Call a raise if the IOs are there and the risk of getting squeezed out downstream is minimal. Post flop, unless there is a damn good reason to deviate, treat these hands as fit-or-fold cards.  If you hit your set, don't worry about getting over-setted, as this is just part of poker.

Still definitely a work in progress, but this table attempts to capture the basic strategy for the pairs. UOP=Un-Opened Pot, URP=Un-Raised Pot, RP=Raised Pot, RRP=ReRaised Pot, R/F=Raise-Fold, R/C=Raise-Call, C/F=Call-Fold, and Ci=Call if Implied Odds are Correct. I haven't fully vetted this table yet, but it's probably pretty close as-is.
Remember, with pocket pairs you only have a pair before the flop, and chances are that you going to still have just one pair on the flop. Therefore you usually want to thin the field and not let your opponents see cheap flops.... but you also have to remember that one pair hands generally lose money at hold'em, so don't be worried about folding the trouble ones, even preflop, if your spider-sense is telling you something is wrong. Remember: folding is probably the most under-rated technique to making money in hold'em.

All-in for now...
-Bug

Friday, August 10, 2012

Bug's Poker Tip #5

Narrow Your Opponent's Hand Range

Narrow your opponent's hand range as the hand progresses; don't widen it. Don't add in new hands to your opponent's range based on "scare cards" that come on the turn or river without a damn good reason to do so. Your job is to put the opp on a range of hands preflop, and then remove hands from that range as the flop, turn, and river are dealt, and we see what they do on each street. By the time you get to the river, you should have the bad guy on a fairly narrow range of hands (including bluffs, if appropriate) and know where you stand relative to that range. If a flush draw or a big Ace wasn't in the original range you put the villain on, don't suddenly become frightened when the flush comes in or the Ace pops on the river. Start wide, and then narrow down your read as the streets progress, not the other way 'round.

All-in for now...
-Bug

Thursday, August 9, 2012

Hand Chart Construction, Part 3: Premium Pairs

In hold'em, we are dealt two of a kind (i.e., any pocket pair) only once every 17 hands. That's a little less than 6% of the time. More importantly, we're only dealt the so-called "premium" pairs (AA and KK) about 0.9% of the time. That's a tiny number, equal to only about once every 110 times we're dealt a hand. Said another way: At a 9-handed table, we have to wait more than twelve laps of the table on average before we see rockets or cowboys show up in front of us.

Because they're so rare, we want to get the most bang for the buck when we are dealt one of these two monster hands. Unfortunately, for many beginners, this means they try to slow play, or "trap" when dealt AA or KK. They just can't stand the thought of raising preflop and then having everyone else fold, taking down just a small pot. They've waited hours for Aces, and they want to get paid off. So they limp or min-raise or overcall....and then they lose.... and then they complain that their big pocket pairs never hold up. And when they do manage to win via slow playing, they often only win only a small pot. Fancy play syndrome, or FPS, dooms them to winning small and/or losing big.

As I've mentioned before on this blog a number of times (including recently here), we want to build value when we have a Value hand. Before the flop, there is simply no better hand than Aces, so by definition it's a Value hand. In fact, it's the preflop nuts. Why on earth would you not want to bet and raise when you're holding the current nuts?

Kings are a similar story. The only hand that beats you preflop is Aces, and our opponents only get dealt Aces once every 221 hands. At a nine-handed table, this means that if you get dealt Kings UTG, there is only a 3.5% that one of the remaining eight players left to act has Aces. And if you do run into rockets against your 'boys, and all the money goes in, you still have about a one in five chance of cracking the better hand. In other words, you should almost never be afraid of Aces when holding Kings in a cash game. I think it was Dan Harrington that once said, "I'm not smart enough to fold Kings preflop. Neither are you." Only if you have a sick read on your opponent and put him with dead certainty on Aces preflop should you consider folding to a 4bet all-in preflop when holding KK.

Okay, this is all just a long-winded way of saying that the two premium pair hands, Aces and Kings, are super-duper Value hands, and should be treated as such when talking about ABC cash game play. Raise, re-reraise, and re-re-raise preflop with these hands. If you can get all the money in preflop, do so.* Stack sizes, opp tendencies, your position, their position, upstream and downstream action, etc. essentially don't factor into how to play the hands preflop at the micro- and low-stakes tables.**

So, click on the picture, below, to see how I think you should play AA and KK at a nine-handed table.***

The ABC bottom line, not surprisingly, is to raise preflop no matter what happens upstream of you. This is clearly one of the simplest examples, but it also illustrates how we're going to build the rest of the starting hand chart, hand-by-hand. Stay tuned...


All-in for now...
-Bug
*All bets are off (no pun intended) if you don't get all the money in preflop and have to actually play a post-flop game with either of these hands. At that point, all kinds of things like player type and tendencies, board texture, stack sizes, and so on will factor into how you play the hand postflop.... ah, but this is true of any hand you see a flop with.

**As we get into mid-stakes and above, however, and our play morphs from L1 and L2 to solid L3-type play, we can start doing things like cold-calling to induce bluffs and so on. Our own image becomes incredibly important, and we can often get the opp to do our betting for us to build value in the pot preflop.

***A few words of explanation about using this chart (which, by the way, may not be the final format I use, but for now will serve as the data collection/display device for each hand and how to play it in an ABC manner). First, find your hand down the left side of the chart. Then find your position and seat along the top of the chart. Next find the upstream action that you're facing along the top; UR=Unraised Pot, R=Raised Pot, RR=ReRaised Pot. The cell in the middle of the table that intersects your hand and the upstream action you're facing is the action you should take. An "R" means you should raise (or bet, if the pot is unopened). "C" will mean call. And "F" is fold. There will be more to explain as we get into some of the more complex hands, but for now the chart is really this simple to use. And in this example, all the cells for AA and KK say to raise, regardless of the action you're facing.


Monday, August 6, 2012

Bug's Poker Tip #4

If the opp folds, they weren't going to pay you off anyway.

At the micro- and low-stakes tables, you need to bet, bet, and bet some more with your value hands. No fancy play. No trapping. Check-raising is okay, but only if you're very certain your opponent is going to play ball. Otherwise, no slow playing if you flop a set. If you hit a flush, bet. If you turn a straight, bet. If you have top two, bet. The goal with a value hand is to build value, and this is only achieved by getting money into the middle. If you get dealt Aces on the button and the action folds to you preflop, do not slow play; bet it as you would with a steal with J8o. If the blinds fold, then so be it. If the opp doesn't stick around, they weren't going to pay you off anyway. Giving villains a look at free or cheap board cards is a recipe for disaster at the micros. Bet that value hand... and build value.

All-in for now...
-Bug

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Full Tilt Debacle Ending?


As you undoubtedly have heard by now, Full Tilt was formally purchased yesterday by Pokerstars, and it was done so with the full blessing of the DoJ. Long story short: if you live outside of the US, you'll get repaid your account balance within 90 days. If you are a US citizen, however, you will have to apply for "remissions" with the DoJ to get repaid. The details of this process are still very hazy and uncertain. I would suggest signing up with the PPA here: http://theppa.org/repayment to get the latest news on the process as it develops.

Looks like Charlie Brown's foot finally made contact with the ball. Now we have to see if it lifts off the ground and sails through the uprights....

All-in for now...
-Bug