Raise vs. Flat Quiz Question

Here's an interesting hand from yesterday's www.dailyhandquiz.com :

What struck me about this quiz question was the responses I saw posted on the web site. Or, more accurately, what amazed me was how the players responding to the question justified their answers. People said things like, "Raising is the standard play" and "I'd be happy just taking down the dead money" and things like that. In short, not a single person actually went about looking at this problem with Expected Value in mind.

This problem reminds me of the old poker puzzler in which you are dealt AA UTG at a full-ring table. You decide to shove. How many callers do you want?  I blogged about this years ago here: http://pokerbug.blogspot.com/2009/04/everyone-is-wrong.html

This quiz question is obviously different in details, but is actually very similar in nature. You need to make some assumptions about the range of hands the opp is squeezing with, the equity you have against that range if the money goes in, and so on, but really it's just a EV calculation at heart. In other words, you should do the play that maximizes your expected value, and not anything else....

All-in for now....
-Bug

Bug's Poker Tip #7

Evaluating board texture is key to successful continuation betting.

There are a lot of factors to consider when deciding when to c-bet on a flop. Among the most important of these is the texture of the board. A flop of K♥7♠2♦ is much less likely to hit an opponent's range than K♥Q♥9♠ . The former is relatively dry and light, while the latter is wet and heavy. Remember why you're c-betting in poker in the first place: it's either to get a worse hand to call, or to get a better hand to fold. Factor your opponent's hand range in with the board texture, and then decide why you're considering c-betting. If you can't come up with a good answer, don't bet.

All-in for now...

-Bug

WSOP 2013: MTT Boot Camp

One of the challenges of mastering poker is simply the glut of available training media and methods to choose from. There are countless books, videos, and software packages that each promise to make you a better player. There are also literally scores of qualified coaches and database reviewers that can elevate your game, as well as countless online study groups, chat groups, such. Then add in all the available forums and email lists to the mix, and the student’s head begins to spin at the options. How does one go about prioritizing and focusing to maximize their bang for the improvement buck?

I’ve been pondering this question for a while now that I’ve decided to play in next year’s WSOP. As I’ve stated before, my cash game skills are pretty good, but my MTT abilities needs some serious work. The way I see it, to improve my game there are a few areas I can/should address:

• Active MTT Book/Video/Software Self-Study. The problem with most forms of self-study is that the activity tends to be passive. You read a book. You watch a video. You listen to a podcast. Sure, some of the information is going to get absorbed, but the efficiency of this method is pretty low. Enter active study. If you read a chapter of a book, you need to follow up each session with ten minutes of writing down notes and/or blogging about what you just learned. If you watch a video, you need to similarly write down what you’ve learned. Even when playing an online game, it’s all too easy to just go on autopilot and not *learn* anything during the process. You have to actively try to get better. Here are some ideas:
• Hand Reading. You can do this simple exercise during play (i.e., call out other players hand ranges) or, even better, go back through your poker database and sort on hands that went to showdown. Then hide your opponents hands, and verbally work through groups of hands, calling out the likely hand ranges of your opponents. Do ten of these a day and keep score.
• PokerStove and/or Flopzilla Drills. Fire up one of these programs, enter hand ranges against specific hands, and then *before* you hit the evaluate button try to guess what the equity actually is. Do 10 of these a day and keep score.
• MTT Book Learnin’  I’ve got a handful of really well-reviewed poker books I’ve purchased but haven’t gotten to reading yet. Two in particular near the top of my to-do list are J. Little’s book on tournament play, and E. Miller’s book on hand reading. The secret of course is to actively read these and take notes.
• MTT Video Learnin’ My cardio/card-io exercise method has worked in the past to improve my cash game, so I’m going to dust it back off and start treadmilling my way through a couple dozen MTT videos I own.
• Blog. As always, I intend to continue to use this blog to improve my own game, but with a new focus on MTTs as much as possible.
• Put in the Hours. There really is no better way to learn something as complex as poker than just sitting down and putting in the hours. You can theoretically learn how to fly an airplane by reading a book and playing with a Flight Sim program, but does this really sound like the best way to prepare to take a Cessna up for the first time? Poker is similar in this respect, and actual seat time is vital. To address this for my own WSOP adventure, I need to play a lot of tourneys. Worse, I need to play a lot of live poker, which is neither cheap nor convenient. Ergo, my goals include:
• Play 4-5 online single table SnGs every week
• Play at least one 100-man or bigger online tournaments per week.
• Play in a live tournament twice a month.
•  Play at least one SnG blind every week. We’ve all seen the amazing Annette O. demonstration of playing blind in a tournament and winning. The reason she is able to do this without seeing her own hole cards is she got the whole board texture/stack size/opponent “play the player” thing down cold. If you really want to learn to focus on everything but your own cards, I think Helen Keller poker might be the key.
• Actively Participate in the Forums More. There is a tremendous amount of knowledge floating around on the web, especially in places like 2+2 and flopturnriver. Again, the key is to not just read the forums, but participate. Posting questions and answers, and debating can only serve to make me a better player. I used to post at least one cash game item every single workday morning on 2+2; it’s time to start that tradition back up, except this time do it in the MTT forums.
• Hire a Coach Even Tiger Woods has a swing coach (and, no, it’s not his wife wielding a nine iron). I can’t afford a lot of coaching hours, but I can probably pick up a few hours here and there from a specialist on hand and database reviews. This method has been successful for me in the past while I was working on my cash game, and I don’t see why it can’t work for MTTs, too. I need to poke around and find an MTT coach that a) does serious hand history and database reviews; and b) fits my personality and linear “engineers” brain approach to learning. It’s still very early in the process for me to invest in a coach, but as the WSOP draws near I’ll probably spring for a few quality hours.
• Get Body In Shape. No rocket science here; it's really just eating better and exercising more consistently. The better your body is at pumping and delivering oxygen, the more alert your brain will be. Specifically:
• Cut way down on the sugar and carbs. For me, dropping my carb count to under 40g per day has and will drop weight faster than pretty much any other method I've tried. The trick is actually doing it religiously, day to day. Then of course keeping it off.
• Exercise. For me, this means 3-4x per week on the elliptical machine, daily lunchtime walks, and 2-3x per week of weight training.
• Stretching. Sitting for long hours at a poker table is tough on my lower and upper back. For me, the key to minimizing pain has in the past been getting limber and stretching. Studies have also shown that Limber=Better Blood Flow.  

On to Week #0

All-in for now…

-Bug

Hand Chart Construction, Part 5: Suited and Unsuited AX

{Unless specifically noted, I'm not differentiating between suited and unsuited cards in the text here. Generally speaking, having suited cards adds a few percentage points to the equity in your hand. This may or may not make a difference in how you play the hand, given your reads on the opposition. In general, however (and obviously) suited cards gives you outs that unsuited cards don't, and this should be factored into your decision process.}

Ace-King. Big Slick, Anna Kournikova, Walking Back to Houston. Whatever you want to call it, AK is one of the trickiest hands to play in hold'em. It's also one of the strongest. And it's also just a drawing hand. In other words, it's a contradiction: powerful yet also not a made hand before the flop. When you hold AK you should be both pleased and wary.

• Hand Type: AK is a strong Drawing hand with a lot of Semi-Bluff strength.
• Position: You can and should play AK from any position preflop.
• Stack Sizes: When super deep with AK, you should be wary of getting it all in preflop against players with very tight ranges, especially if they're 4betting you. At 100bb deep or less, however, you should be less afraid to 4bet all-in against most players, and under 60bb calling 4bets is a no-brainer.
• Table Dynamics: Like most hands, who you're facing should affect if and how you play AK, but AK has such power that it's strong against both tight and loose players, and passive and aggro players alike.
• Upstream Action: Because you hold one of the Aces and one of the Kings in the deck, the chances of someone else having AA or KK at your table goes down. It's also less likely someone has AA when you hold AK then when you hold KK. And as we saw with KK, you shouldn't be afraid of getting it in, so you really shouldn't be afraid of getting it in with AK. Okay, that said, you do need to be careful and factor in your reads on the opp. 
• How to Play: Folding is rarely a horrible play at hold'em preflop, and if you're concerned you can fold AK to be big 4bet if your read is one of huge strength... but generally speaking, you've got a big hand with AK and shouldn't be too afraid of the opposition. Often, you're at worst a coinflip against an opponent holding an underpair. It's also very important to remember that it's always better to be the one shoving with AK than be the one calling with AK.

Ace-Queen. Also known as: Big Chick, Queer Anna, and Walking Back to Houston (yes, the same nickname as AK). This hand is one that a lot of beginners lose money with. Why? Because it looks so strong, but is dominated by AK, AA, KK, and QQ, which are all hands that other players are willing to get it in with preflop. The old joke goes something like: "Hey, did you hear about Joe? He got married." "Really?" "Yep, got married to AQ and then got divorced from his stack." Here's a simple example of the hand I blogged about a little while ago that demonstrates how it should be played.

• Hand Type: Like AK, this is a strong Drawing hand with a bunch of Semibluff strength.
• Position: You can and should play AQ from any position preflop, especially AQs. Occasionally, you can consider folding AQo UTG at an aggressive full-ring table if there is danger of you getting 3- and 4bet.
• Stack Sizes: Get it in with shallow stacks preflop, be cautious and exercise pot control at 100bb-sized stacks, and feel good about folding if the stacks are super deep.
• Table Dynamics: Against nits that show aggression you need to be very wary with this hand, but against LAgs you can be more willing to get money into the middle.
• Upstream Action: You should almost always 3bet with this hand, especially if you have position. You should, however, be more than willing to fold to an upstream 3bet.
• How to Play: Strong but cautious, with an willingness to fold to significant pressure.

Ace-Jack. Ajax, Blackjack, Big Jerk. After reading the AQ hand description above, you should no doubt be thinking this hand is not as strong as it looks. Yep, that's exactly the message to remember with AJ.

• Hand Type: Moderate drawing hand (to one pair) with moderate Semibluffing strength.
• Position: At a full ring table, I really only play AJs UTG and UTG+1; i.e., I dump AJo. Otherwise, I open raise this hand from other field positions, and might consider 3betting if I have position. From the blinds it's pretty tricky to play this hand, and you really need to factor in the player type and his position if you're considering getting mixed up with a field opener.
• Stack Sizes. Above 100bb this hand is just not worth getting your stack in with. You can however seriously considering jamming on a short stacker and/or calling their jam.
• Table Dynamics: Raise this hand at TAggy tables, and consider just calling in position against LAgtards. 
• Upstream Action: You should be more than willing to dump this hand if a good opponent has shown upstream strength.
• How to Play: Play this hand strong if you're not getting resistance, but if you are: folding is absolutely standard.

Ace-Ten. AT is also known as the Johnny Moss hand. This is about as weak of an Ace hand you want to regularly get involved with. Yes, it can make a straight, but it's effectively a 3-gapper that is dominated by eight hands that people love to play (AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, AQ, and AJ).

• Hand Type: Moderate strength Drawing hand with some Semibluff strength.
• Position: Not recommended to play this in EP at a full ring table, but otherwise this can be opened in MP and LP. Be careful playing this one out of the blinds.
• Stack Sizes. If you're good at post-flop play (read: not getting married to your hand) and treat this as a drawing hand, you can play this one relatively deep. Otherwise, think of this hand as a weak version of AJ.
• Table Dynamics: Against both nits and LAgs, this hand can cause  you grief.
• Upstream Action: Unless your read is that the opp opens wide and folds a lot to 3bets, I'd suggest just folding this to any real upstream action.
• How to Play: Cautiously.

A9-A6. Unsuited, these hands are basically trap hands that offer a lot of reverse implied odds. They don't make straights, and they're almost always out-kicked if you make TPTK. Suited versions are OK to play, but only if you're getting good implied odds and have position.

• Hand Type: Weak Drawing hand with weak SDV.
• Position: Unsuited: only play these in LP in unopened pots. Suited, look for upstream limpers that might be playing weaker cards of your same suit.
• Stack Sizes. Big or small stack sizes usually mean the same thing: fold
• Table Dynamics: Against both nits and LAgs, this hand can cause you serious grief.
• Upstream Action: If suited, you're looking for a bunch of limpers, or possibly a raiser and then a bunch of cold-callers. Unsuited, you're folding to any uptream action.
• How to Play: Rarely play these hands.

A5-A2. Unsuited, these hands are also trap hands that offer a lot of reverse implied odds. Oddly, they're actually stronger than the A6-A9 variants as they can make straights. They're essentially always out-kicked if you make TPTK. Suited versions are also OK to play, but only if you're getting good implied odds and have position.

• Hand Type: Weak Drawing hand with weak SDV.
• Position: Unsuited: only play these in LP in unopened pots. Suited, look for upstream limpers that might be playing weaker cards of your same suit.
• Stack Sizes. Big or small stack sizes usually mean the same thing: fold
• Table Dynamics: Against both nits and LAgs you need to proceed very cautiously if you do enter the pot.
• Upstream Action: Like the A9-A6 hands, if suited, you're looking for a bunch of limpers, or possibly a raiser and then a bunch of cold-callers. Unsuited, you're folding to any uptream action.
• How to Play: Rarely play these hands unless there are a ton of implied odds.

Starting Hand Chart for the AXs and AXo hands

Back to Part 4

All-in for now...

-Bug

WSOP 2013: Putting a Plan Together

Okay, so how does a player go about getting ready for a major live tournament that's nearly a year away? Especially if said player has never attended a major tourney like this before? Here's my to-do list:

1. Pick an event and register;
2. Get ready to play; and
3. Go to Vegas and sit down.

Ha. Ha. While I'm obviously being more than a little facetious with this three-step plan, the reality is that this is the basis of what I intend to do. Let me explain by expanding on the first two:

Pick an Event. This step is more involved than it sounds. Obviously, I'm going to stick with one of the NL Hold'em events, as this is where I'm in my comfort zone. Also, while I'd love to play in the Main Event, I frankly don't have ten large lying around that I can justify spending on a mid-life crisis. It's also pretty hard to justify even $2500, but one of the $1500 or $1K events is do-able for my limited budget. Fully 15 of the 61 events at this year's WSOP (i.e., 25% of the tourneys spread) were $1K or $1.5K games, so finding something that fits my budget and schedule next year should be reasonably easy. There are also things like hotel, food, transportation, and a side cash game or two that currently aren't in my budget. Oh, and I want to spend some time between now and then in some local live tournaments, which means buy-in fees. In other words, I've got some saving to do between now and then.

Get Ready. This is where I put my money where my mouth is; i.e., I frequently tout my "ABC Edges" approach to mastering poker on this blog (hell, I devote four of the nine drop down tabs at the top of this blog's home page to the subject of Edge). This system was/is-being developed primarily for learning cash games, but I really don't see a reason it's not applicable to tourneys, too, so this is where I intend to start:

1. Preparation. As you no doubt know, I believe there are three subparts to this Edge: pregame, postgame, and offtable. In the context of this big tournament endeavour, this far out from the WSOP, the "pregame" prep is going to focus primarily on selecting the tournament that has the most dead money and offers me the biggest edge. The "postgame" part is going to be me reviewing tournaments that I play between now and then, including posting a lot of questions about hands played to the forums. This will involve a lot of online tournaments (to get in volume), some local live tournaments (to practice handling chips, etc), and perhaps a pre-visit to Vegas to get my feet wet in one of the smaller regular tournaments like a Venetian deep stack event*. The "off-table" prep is where the bulk of my work on this edge is going to take place. Get in shape/increase staminia (read: lose 30+ pounds and improve cardio), read tournament poker books (at least three between now and then), watch a bunch of MTT training videos (review the ones I already own, plus maybe invest in some more), steering away from the cash game sections of the forums and focusing on the MTT sections, and perhaps investing in some type of software tournament training program. 
2. Technique. I also believe there are three subparts to this Edge: preflop, postflop evaluations, and line implementations. I've got a pretty good handle on preflop hand selection, but not necessarily for tournament play (which is strongly a function of payout structure, blind size, stack sizes, and stage of the tournament); I have a lot to bone up on here, including ICM and the concept of cEV. (I intend to finish my cash game starting hand chart, but once I do I'll revisit it with tournament play in mind). Similarly, I'm OK at postflop evaluations in cash games (i.e., the "R" and "E" parts of REDi), but I need to really start turning my focus to tournaments. Hand reading is going to be vitally important, and factoring in all the ICM stuff is going to be an interesting challenge to master. Finally, line implementations are pretty standard (the "D" and "i" parts of REDi), but I need to wrap my head around things like the concept of making thin +EV plays when my tournament life is on the line.
3. Emotions. The three subparts to this are Tilt Control, BRM, and Discipline. I think I'm fine with the Tilt part (and getting in cardio shape has been shown to actually improve this part of a person's emotional control, so this should improve). BRM is also an area that's OK here; I've got a monthly budget set aside for tournaments and training, and as long as I don't exceed this I'll be fine. The last one, Discipline, is where I think I have the most work to do. Frankly speaking, right now I simply don't have the patience one needs to play a three day tournament. Hell, in online tournaments I have a bad habit of lasting 2-3 hours and then busting out for no good reason other than I got bored and wanted the thing over with. Sigh. I also tend to surf, read, work, etc when playing online. Not good. I watched a video the other day in which a guy was talking about a big, slow live tourney he played in; his comment was that the slowness of the game really allowed him to focus on reading and observing other players. I need to learn this mental approach to the game.

Obviously, this midlife crisis is a big undertaking, but as they say: you eat an elephant one bite at a time. Over the next week or two I'll get this list and plan a little better formulated and formalized. Then it's just a matter of implementing it (and fitting it in and around the rest of my life). The goal is work on the big-picture leaks and weaknesses in my game first, and then fine tune the closer I get to the event, hopefully peaking physically and mentally around early Summer of 2013.

On to Part 3: Studying Methods

All-in for now...

-Bug

*I'm actually torn about playing at the Venetian. A true enemy of the legalization of on-line poker is Sheldon Adelson, who owns the Venetian. I will look hard at alternate venues to  play in, but these games are known to be player friendly, with good structures and soft fields. Arghgh.

AQs Cash Hand Quiz Question

I've been fan of the Daily Quiz of the Day website for years. On average, they post more tournament than cash game questions, so as I prep for next year's WSOP I will probably be spending even more time on their web page every morning than I usually do. (You can find a link to the site in the "Resources" tab at the top of this blog's home page.)

Anyway, today's question was a fairly standard cash game Q, but it got me thinking afterward that this is a common hand that a lot of newbies lose unnecessary money on, so it bears a little scrutiny. Here's today's question via a cut and paste from their website:

So what do you do? A beginner (or even an intermediate on autopilot) might see what looks like a strongish hand, then glance at the low effective stack size and just get it in. An advanced player would take the time to do REDi:

Read: what range do we put our opponent on? He’s been laggy a lot preflop, but for 5x size raises. Here he jumps in with a 10x raise from UTG. We don’t have to worry about anyone else in the hand, as we’re in the BB. The 10x raise is weird; either it’s a very strong hand, or one he doesn’t want to see any action with. In low-stakes games I frequent, the latter is often indicative of hands like JJ or TT from a bad player. Sometimes you see people turn up AA, KK, or AK here too.

Estimate: against the stronger part of villain's range, our AQs is 2:1 dog or worse. Against a range of middle pairs, we’re at best a coin flip. We have essentially no fold equity, as he’ll be getting good pot odds to call a shove with his short remaining stack. The only real thing working in your favor is that the SPR is low; in other words, you don’t stand to lose too much with the hand.

Decide: Our hand doesn’t have much if any Value against the opps range, and we essentially don’t have any fold equity, so Semibluffing is no good. In other words, pushing is out. Calling to see a flop is not much better, as we’ll be OOP and essentially in the same boat we’re in now (i.e., confused as to where we stand). Therefore this is an easy fold.

Implement: Muck.

All-in for now...
-Bug

Fat Boys and Bucket Lists

"Life is a journey, not a destination."

-Ralph Waldo Emerson

I had a bit of a big life wake-up call hit me repeatedly over the head during the past few months. It started when a close family member was diagnosed with a particularly aggressive and deadly form of cancer. This news coincided almost exactly with my own milestone birthday of turning the big five-oh. Couple these hard facts with a) the arrival of the dreaded "Congratulations, you're eligible to join AARP" letter in the mailbox; b) the less-than-stellar results of a routine medical check-up; and...

...well, enough whining. To be honest, I really can't complain. All-in-all, I lead a relatively contented life. I've got a great wife, a well paid and interesting job, two adult kids (mostly) out on their own, a roof over my head, food in the pantry, and plenty of fulfilling interests and hobbies, including poker of course...

...ah, but there's something missing, something that's been nagging at me for the past few years, something that ESPN is now reminding me of every Tuesday night as they begin broadcasting the run-up to this year's main event final table.

So what's missing? Answer: the realization that I have never played in the WSOP, despite claiming on the very masthead of this blog when I started it up that this was the ultimate goal of me learning poker in the first place. The years just keep passing by, the excuses and reasons keep piling up, and I've yet to make the trip to Vegas to play in the WSOP. Hell, I've never even gone to Sin City during the WSOP as a spectator to what is arguably poker's biggest gathering, despite living just a handful of hours away by car.

So enough, already. It's time to put up or shut up.

Soooo: I'm hereby publicly proclaiming herein this blog that I will attend and play in next year's WSOP, come hell or high water. Dunno what event I'll play in, but I will play.

Okay, so with that in mind, a few immediate problems arise. First and foremost is the fact that I'm primarily a cash  game player. An online cash game player. Obviously, I've got a lot of MTT studying to do, plus I've got to get in significantly more live play experience if I want to stand a chance of making a deep run in a crowded WSOP event.

Second, I'm out of shape. How out of shape? Think 30+ pounds, poor cardio, and a BMI that is better suited to that of a sumo wrestler than the champion freestyle wrestler and karate kid that I once was in high school and college, respectively. Said another way: my current stamina simply ain't up to the task of a long, multi-day tournament. I will need to get seriously busy now getting this tub of goo I call my body into shape for a multi-day endurance event next June; it's only ten months away, which is actually not a lot of time to go from a couch potato to a lean, mean, poker machine.

Third, my day job is best described as frenetic and reactionary, and it promises to get worse this coming year with the start of a huge construction project in another state that I'm responsible for. I'll need to plan far in advance to schedule my workload to accommodate this, ahem, major mid-life crisis.

And fourth.... uh, well, there really isn't any fourth thing holding me back. Money isn't a big impediment; sure, I'd like to win my way in, but if necessary, I can afford to simply pay the entry fee into one of the lower buy-in events. Also, I've got the support of my wife (especially if I enter the senior's event, which she has begun reminding me daily that I'm now qualified to play in. sigh). I've also got a fairly decent set of fundamental poker skills and a fairly intense desire to get better. In other words, there isn't really any real show stoppers in the way holding me back from finally taking the plunge. Like I said, it's time to put up or shut up.

Life is short, people. Don't sit around, waiting for these bucket list things to happen on their own; you have to make them materialize or they almost never do. Playing in the WSOP has been on my own list for over ten years. It's about damn time I did something about it. Ralph E. himself would probably counsel me that it's time to get this particular journey going, or the destination will never happen.

On to Step 2: Big Picture Planning

All-in for now...
-Bug