Ponchos, Giants, BO, and Poker. A Wet Day Playing.

Results Don't Matter.

RDM.

Results Don't Matter.

Repeat to oneself, over and over after suffering a cooler.... RDM.

Mr. Multi and I took a quick trip up to Talking Stick Resort this morning for another try at the Last Saturday of the Month tourney. This time, we get there with plenty of time to spare... which is fortunate, because it was another sold out affair, with over 470 entrants, and long lines of alternates. Part of the reason for the big turnout was the heavy rains we got today, which drove a lot of the resort golfers indoors to try their hand at this poker thing. Said another way: dead money. Lots of dead money.

Alas, neither MM nor I made the money. MM got dribbled away, blind by blind, while I, in contrast, built up a nice healthy chip stack early on, but eventually got coolered big time and was sent a'packin'. Here be the highlights:

Started with T7K in chips and 25/50 blinds. It's nice to have 140 big blinds to start, and my game plan was to see cheap flops while deep stacked and then play a post flop game early on. My table had lots of guys in ballcaps, hoodies, headphones, and... ponchos? The blond white guy across from me sits down wearing massive plaid poncho, mirrored sunglasses, mini-sombrero, and menacing toothpick. He was seated directly across from me, and on the first hand he opened UTG with a big 5x raise. Two callers in EP, and I then folded A8o. Board was scary wet, and they went to a cheap showdown. Poncho Villa turns over J8o. Viva Mexico! His opponents turn over 76o and A4s. Viva dead money! And we were off.

Lots of action ensued, with tons of aggression and bizarre play. I folded a couple of hands, then picked up QQ in early position. I limp-opened and was not disappointed when I got two callers and then a squeeze from Mr. Toothpick in a Poncho. I 4bet and it folds back around. Nice start to building a stack.

A few hands later, a young kid directly to my right limp opens in MP. I folded some trash hand, and it folds to a giant of a man on the button, who calls. Long story short, the kid turns over KK, which loses to the giant holding T-2 on an X-2-2-X-X board. Crazy stuff, but I love the bad play. Kid mutters something about KK never paying off for him. Uh, right.

A few hand later, there's a limp from an old guy two seats to my right. I bump it up to 4x with QQ and get three callers, including Pancho Villa and the old guy. Board is K-A-5 double suited. Old guy donks and I fold. He wins with a set of Kings. Seriously.

Blinds go to 50/100. I'm in the big blind with Kc5c and it's a 5-way limped pot by the time it gets to me. Before I can act, the big blind to my left says check. Dealer reminds him I am yet to act. I figure the odds with my kumquat hand are too good for even me to fold, so I complete. BB says check again. Board brings two clubs, and I check. Action folds to the guy to my right, who min bets. I check-raise and get three callers. Turn brings a beautiful low club, giving me the second nut flush,  and I lead again. Get one caller. River is a fourth club, which I hate to see (not because I'm afraid of the Ac, but because I think it will kill the action if villain doesn't have a club.) I lead small, but the opp folds. Sigh.

A couple hands later, I fold AQo to an UTG raise and a MP 3bet. Board of course comes with two queens, but I'm happy with my fold. RDM, baby!

Rags for a bit, then I make the first stupid play of the day, open-limping ATs UTG, with the intention of getting cute and RR'ing if someone decides to bump it up. Unfortunately, there's four limpers behind and the board comes out crappy low cards. I donk 1/2-pot, but get raised by Pancho Villa, who I am sure holds at least a tiny pair that crushes my hand. Don't really know what I was thinking on this hand, but I fold and pretend I know what I'm doing.

Blinds are now up to 100/200 and I've got T12.5K, which is over 60 big blinds. I'm feeling cocky. Poker gods sense this and decide to take aim at me.

I open raise from CO with 96s. Folds to big blind who tanks forever before 3betting me relatively big. I do the old hollywood thing before folding. He shows AQs. I say some bullshit thing about how it would have been a race. He nods sagely. I fold lamely.

Lots of folding rags to a lot of action. Some of the shorter stacks are getting desperate, but my stack is in good shape to weather what Mr. Multi calls the popcorn stage of a tournament....

...and then then cooler strikes. I've got KsQs on the button. The giant open raises UTG. He's been showing down lots of suited cards, AXo, trap hands, non-suited connectors, etc from all positions, and he seems very fit-or-fold postflop. Two callers, and I ponder RR'ing from the button. Instead I call, and the big blind comes along. Flop is a dream: KQQ with two hearts. Giant villain leads and action folds to me. I don't want to scare off heart draws, but we're also both deep, so I min raise to build some value and work to get stacks in with my full house. Action folds back to villain, who tanks. Finally, he calls. Turn brings a low heart. He thinks for a bit, then checks. I bet 1/2 pot, and villain check-ships it. My turn to tank. Only hand that beats me is KK, and there are lots of other hands in his range that I'm crushing. I shrug and call off my entire stack. Villain turns over AQ for trips....

...and over course the river is an Ace. Boat over boat. Results don't matter, though, right? Right?! Yeah, right.

Good news is MM is still in the game at this point, and I've got 10% of him. I walk around the building a few times and clear my head. Then jump into a $3/$6 limit full ring game. A big fat older guy who hasn't bathed for what seems like weeks is sitting to my right. I am gasping for air in the envelope of his unbelievably bad body odor, but I'm also getting good cards. Two laps later, I'm up $50 in profit, but I am finding it difficult to play poker while holding my breath. Brain needs oxygen. Must breathe... The stench is overpowering, so I finally stand up and cash out. Twenty minutes later, MM comes out of his own personal cage match, dejected, out of chips, and muttering about being card dead, card dead, card dead..

We go catch lunch at Sweet Tomatoes before the long, wet drive home. Poker is fun. Poker sucks. Take your pick.

On to the next installment in this WSOP journey...

All-in for now...
-Bug

Missed Fold Equity

I played in my monthly 45-man $25 live tourney last night. A big fraction of the gang showed up, including Flyboy, Raster, Solar Ted, 'Copter Bob, The Tash, and even my son. Good times were had by all, and Raster sent an email out this morning that said he took third place. Woo hoo! Gotta love it when one of the crew monies!

Ah, but that's not to say all was good. The very fact that he had to send an email with the good news is just another way of saying that none of us were still there to witness the score. Instead, we all popped out early like zits on the morning of a teenager's prom, yours truly included. Worse, I busted in the worst way possible: I screwed up.

 I can take coolers.

 I can handle bad beats.

 Hell, I can even deal with losing to luck boxes that thrive on suck outs.

 The thing I hate, however, is busting because I made a stupid mistake. Here's what happened:

Blinds were T500/T1K and I was sitting with a stack of around T16K. We were down to three tables, and my image was fairly snug. Table was relatively good, with me having position on the better players, and some weak-tight players on my left.

I was dealt A♥3♥ on the button, and the action folded to me. The small blind was a nit, and the big blind was a relatively tight player, too, and had been folding to my steals more often than not. The few times I was called by him, he turned over face cards, and the one time he reraised me, he turned over a pair fours. I had also seen him fold a turned top pair face-up to a big re-reraise.

Anyway, back to the hand. After it folded to me, I raised to T3K. The small blind folded, but the big blind called. With little to go on, I put him on face cards, Ax, or suited connectors. He had me slightly covered in chips.

The flop came out J♠-4♥-7♥, which gave me the nut flush draw, an over card, and a backdoor straight draw. Perfect for a c-bet when the BB checks to the raiser....

 ...ah, but the BB decided to donk out for T3K into the T6.5K pot. I was getting over 3:1 pot odds to call. I probably had 9-12 clean outs twice to the flush and/or an overpair. I did the math in my head and called. 

Arghgh.

 Yes, I was getting the right pot odds to call and see two cards, but why the hell I didn’t just shove is beyond me. In other words, I calculated I was getting enough odds to see the turn and river, so I had mentally committed to seeing the turn and river. And if I’m planning on seeing the turn and river, why not add fold equity into my arsenal as well?

 The turn came a blank. Pot was T12.5K, and I had about a T10K behind. The villain led again for T5K. Which left me in a terrible spot.

Do I call and then shut down on the river if I miss? If so, my M is in horrible shape, but o the other hand I won’t be quite dead.

Do I reshove here? If so, the villain will be getting great odds to call with top pair, so my fold equity is basically nill.

Do I fold? If so, what the hell am I doing in the hand in the first place (remember, I said I mentally committed to seeing two cards). Ugh.

In the end I reshoved. The villain thought for a relatively long time, but then called. Of course he turned over KJ, and then of course held on the river. I was sent packing.

I repeat: Arghghg.

Seriously,  I don’t mind missing my draw, but what I do hate is how I missed the fold equity opportunity. 

Sigh.

But at least Raster scored.

All-in for now…
-Bug

Melted Glaciers

Well, my tournament life in the WRGPT "glaciers" poker-by-email tournament has come to a crashing, ignominious end. I've been nursing a small stack for the last couple of months, waiting for an opportunity to chip up. Alas, I've had (a) some big stack bullies running over the table; and (b) zero playable cards or get-it-in opportunities arise for a while. On Wednesday, however, I finally picked up a playable hand in middle/late position. Here's what happened:

Blinds were T600/T1200 with T200 antes. I had T22K, so my M was getting pretty low. I picked up K♦-T♦ in mid/late position. Most everyone at the table had me well covered. I considered just open shoving, but I went with a 3.5x raise instead. In hindsight, I think this was a mistake; I should have just shoved then and there, and taken down the blinds and antes. C'est la vie.

Anyway, I got cold-called by a big-stack bully to my left, and then also by the two blinds. All three players had me well covered by at least a factor of two. The blinds had both been playing fit-or-fold poker. The one player who was to my left was relatively new to the table, so I didn't have any good reads on him. He had me covered by a factor of six.

Flop hit me pretty strongly and was also fairly dry: 6♦-8♠-8♦. While I didn't flop a made hand, I did have two overs and the second nut flush draw. The paired board did give me some pause, but from a combinatorics point of view it was very unlikely one of my opponents held an eight. I was concerned about someone holding a six, but even if that was true I had reasonably good equity.

The two blinds checked and the action was to me. At this point, I went into full REDi mode, including a review of the situation with Mr. Mulit. Here's what I was thinking:

Reads:
The other three players like to see flops. The big blind is playing fit-or-fold, the other two are playing big stack bullies. Can’t really put any of them on big pairs, as they probably are the types to repop pre. I’m therefore thinking small or middle pairs, overcards, or maybe some SCs.

Estimate:
Hand Equity: per ‘stove, I’m a 37:21:21:21 favorite against all three if I assign them each the above range.
Fold Equity: FE is reasonable against the two guys who have ~2-3x my stack size, very little against the big stack on my left, who has me covered 6x.
Commitment: My M is five if I fold here; getting desperate.

Decide:
 I’m not 100% pot committed, but with my M this low, I have to make a play soon. If I double up here, I’m back in the game. If I decide to check/fold, I’m still semi-alive, but my M is so low that I need to play another hand soon. I've got lots of outs, therefore I think my best line here is semi-bluff.

Implement:
With an M this low, the only viable way to semi-bluff is to Jam (and pray).

So I shove... and get insta-called by the knucklehead to my left, who turns over 5♠-6♥. Seriously. Both blinds fold.

Turn is J♦. River is 8♣.

I hit my flush, but the villain wins with the ugly rivered full house.

The good news is that REDi  led me to the right decision. The bad news is that the cards didn't cooperate...

Oh well, I'll just hurry up and sign up for the next Glaciers tourney..... in October. Sigh.

----
In other poker news, if you haven't already watched Daniel Negreanu's latest vlog, I encourage you to do so. Specifically, the fun starts around 5:56 into the video, when Daniel goes off (again) on the pond scum otherwise known as Howard "the Professor" Lederer, Ray Bitar, and Chris "Jesus" Ferguson. Watch the youtube video by clicking HERE.

All-in for now...
-Bug